Ireland searches for answers over failed Lisbon vote

The Irish establishment has been plunged into a period of painful introspection over why voters ignored its advice and rejected the Lisbon Treaty on the future of the European Union.

Politicians are faced with a central paradox: many of those who voted No regard themselves as pro-European and expect their country to continue playing a leading role in Europe, yet Ireland may now be relegated to the sidelines as a result of the referendum. Prime Minister Brian Cowen is under pressure from Europe to re-run the referendum next year and produce a different result. But the government, like all the major parties that campaigned in favour of Lisbon, has no clear idea of exactly what went wrong for the Yes campaign.

With the stakes now high, the Irish cabinet has launched a major research exercise to sift through all the possible reasons why the No camp succeeded, and why so many people who say they are pro-Europe voted against Lisbon.

Announcing the move, Irish Foreign minister Micheal Martin said: "This project will allow for a deeper understanding of the factors that shaped the outcome of the referendum and will represent an important input into the best way forward for Ireland." He welcomed a new survey which showed that Irish citizens are among the most positive in the EU in their general attitude to Europe, and that no fewer than 82 per cent believed Ireland had benefited from membership.

But the survey's eventual results may find that the government's pro-Lisbon drive was flawed. There have been accusations that the Yes campaign was slow to start and inept in countering the arguments of the diverse No campaign factions.

Many voters were influenced by arguments that Lisbon would make abortion more likely, endanger Ireland's low corporate tax rates, put Irish neutrality at risk and lead to conscription to a European army.

Women seem to have been more against the Treaty than men, with various pro-Lisbon politicians reporting that many were worried that their sons could be called up. Research has also suggested that a fair number of those who voted Yes did so despite unease about some of these questions.

Some issues were hotly publicly contested, such as whether Lisbon would decrease Ireland's influence within Europe. But there are now suggestions that there were submerged issues in the campaign, such as the unusually high rate of immigration into Ireland from mainland Europe. This did not show up during campaign opinion polls.

Many people polled have complained they did not know enough about the Treaty, despite its provisions being freely available, together with many commentaries on them.

The government appears to be focused on finding out why No voters acted as they did, and why potential Yes voters stayed at home. With so many disparate issues in play, a re-run could only have a chance of success if a clear picture emerges. Once it does, the pro-Lisbon elements will work out whether the various No concerns can be countered through mechanisms such as assurances from Brussels.

With Dublin due to report to an EU summit in October, it will be an anxious summer for Irish ministers.