Ministers fear Irish may reject Lisbon treaty

An opinion poll has shown that the outcome of Ireland's forthcoming referendum on the EU's Lisbon treaty is in doubt, with no confidence in official circles that a yes vote will be delivered.

After a sluggish start to the campaign, those in favour of the treaty have increased their support. But so too have those who oppose it, so that the result of the poll on 12 June is uncertain.

The pro-treaty forces, which include almost the entire Irish political establishment, had hoped to deliver a comfortable victory. With Ireland the only EU country holding a plebiscite, a rejection of Lisbon would be a significant setback for the European project. But the latest opinion poll, carried out for the Sunday Business Post, in Dublin, produced figures of 41 per cent intending to vote in favour compared to 33 per cent against, with 26 per cent don't knows or undecided.

The yes camp can point out that it has a significant lead, having gone up 3 per cent since the last poll. But the no camp has been heartened by the fact that its increase has been 5 per cent, its best-ever showing.

This closing of the gap means that an already energetic campaign is set to become even more lively in the run-up to 12 June as the two sides seek to win over uncommitted voters.

The Irish Republic was for decades wholeheartedly pro-European, partly because the EU provided the state with a role on the international stage, and even more so because it provided it with large amounts of money.

But in recent times attitudes have taken on a more sceptical tinge. Most are still in favour but a minority is now more questioning about the EU. Polling data shows that older voters are more likely to vote yes, while some younger elements – perhaps less appreciative of the former flow of Euro money – are inclined to oppose Lisbon.

The no camp encompasses Sinn Fein and a number of disparate elements. They say the treaty would reduce Ireland's influence, endanger its traditional neutrality and put at risk its low commercial tax rates.

Those in the yes camp retort that neutrality and the tax rate are safe and that the treaty represents a sensible evolution of the EU. They accuse opponents of "misrepresenting and demonising" the EU. One problem for the yes camp is that, while it argues Europe should be allowed to deliver its familiar benefits, Lisbon promises no extra advantages.