Moscow orders troop pull-back before election

Russia is to withdraw a considerable part of its forces from Chechnya, claiming this is possible because of recent military successes.

Russia is to withdraw a considerable part of its forces from Chechnya, claiming this is possible because of recent military successes.

General Valery Manilov, the Russian deputy chief of staff, said yesterday that "following the defeat of large rebel formations, including those in Grozny, the size of the federal force will be reduced". He dismissed statements by the Chechen fighters that they would now wage a guerrilla war, as they have pledged to do.

"A guerrilla war is a war waged by the people and broadly supported by the people," General Manilov told a press conference. "What we are witnessing is a complete rejection of bandit and terrorist formations by the people."

The announcement is probably geared towards the presidential election on 26 March, which acting president Vladimir Putin is expected to win. But a public declaration that the war is won and forces are being withdrawn will make it difficult for the army to call up reserves to fight a prolonged guerrilla war in Chechnya. Despite General Manilov's claim, this is now considered inevitable by military analysts.

If the Kremlin now feels it must reduce the number of its troops in Chechnya rather than reinforce them, it will have little option but to look for some form of negotiated settlement.

The Russian army is portraying the two-month long siege of Grozny as a successful military operation in which the Chechen fighters suffered heavy losses. Marshal Igor Sergeyev, the Minister of Defence, claims that Chechen losses totalled 1,500 men.

The Chechens say that they staged a tactical withdrawal, successfully eluding Russian troops surrounding Grozny, and will fight on in the southern mountains. But they admit that they lost several senior commanders in their retreat.

Despite these casualties there is little doubt that the Chechens will fight on, while the Russians will have to use some of their units to garrison Grozny. In 1995 the Chechens lost the capital, but recaptured most of it the following year.

The momentum behind the war, launched on 1 October, always came from the Kremlin's determination to win the Duma elections last December and the presidential election in seven weeks time. Mr Putin, unknown when appointed in March, is now firm favourite to win the presidency.

General Manilov gave no date for the reduction in the number of the 93,000-strong Russian force in Chechnya, nor did he say how many soldiers would be withdrawn.

Nevertheless, his statement may indicate that the Kremlin has now decided that the war is a vote loser. Mr Putin's popularity has been sinking in recent weeks. The war was at first popular in Russia, after bombings blamed on the Chechens killed 300 people, but few people want to go to fight. The call up of 20,000 reserve officers created deep anxiety. General Manilov said that 1,290 Russian servicemen had been killed and 3,970 wounded since fighting started in the North Caucasus last summer.

Meanwhile, film purporting to show the exchange of the correspondent of Radio Liberty detained in Chechnya by the Russian army being swapped for three Russian soldiers held by the Chechens has sparkedfears for his safety.

The film, shot by the FSB security service, shows an unshaven Andrei Babitsky walking towards an unidentified man. He has spoken neither to his family nor his lawyer since he was arrested.

Even sections of the Russian media normally supportive of the war have reacted with outrage to Mr Babitsky's treatment. "It was a very good trick from a propaganda point of view," said the daily Izvestiya. "If Babitsky fails to survive the Chechens are to blame."

During his two week detention, Mr Babitsky was not allowed to make contact with independent observers. He was accused of taking part in guerrilla actions against the Russian army and even of the theft of a valuable icon. This was taken to Moscow for examination by experts who said the icon was worth about 40p.