Why are we asking this now?
The EU and Turkey have agreed a draft deal that will supposedly stop the flow of refugees into Europe and send them back across the sea?
The EU's 28 leaders have celebrated the deal, with Donald Tusk saying it means “the days of irregular migration to Europe are over”.
David Cameron, too, has said it would “break the business model of the people smugglers” and “end the link between getting in a boat and getting settlement in Europe”.
But is it all really that simple? We asked the International Organisation for Migration’s director for the EU and Nato, Eugenio Ambrosi, and asked him: If not Europe, then where?
How many people are coming over into Europe right now?
Eugenio Ambrosi: "From the beginning of year about 150,000 have come across, with a rate of daily arrival in Greece that has decreased over the last couple of weeks. Right now there are around 2,000 to 2,500 arrivals a day, which is a 50 per cent drop from the first few weeks of the year.
"At the beginning of the year we were gearing up for another million, but we will have to see what impact the discussions with Turkey and the closing of borders here and there have on the numbers. There is an element of uncertainty.
"Even so, the number reaching Europe is still going to be substantial. These people are fleeing for very serious reasons, they are running for their lives – so they are not going to be stopped by a fence."
What happens if they are all turned back to Turkey?
EA: "It is fair to consider Turkey a safe country at the moment, but you cannot have an approach that is purely theoretical, saying that since it is a safe country you can have a flow of people going there indefinitely.
"Let’s not forget, we have rightly asked Turkey to keep their border open with Syria to provide asylum for the flow of people still fleeing that country. But if they also receive people sent back from various European countries there will come a point when the number is too high to offer appropriate conditions to these people.
"There is a risk if the population grows substantially and very fast, in terms of danger from physical violence but also in terms of the limited opportunities that are actually offered to these people.
"It is a question of how much the Turkish infrastructure will be able to take the burden. Lots of these people are children – how are you supposed to provide some sort of education to all these people who will be stranded for we don’t know how long?"
Refugee crisis - in pictures
Refugee crisis - in pictures
A child looks through the fence at the Moria detention camp for migrants and refugees at the island of Lesbos on May 24, 2016.
Ahmad Zarour, 32, from Syria, reacts after his rescue by MOAS (Migrant Offshore Aid Station) while attempting to reach the Greek island of Agathonisi, Dodecanese, southeastern Agean Sea
Syrian migrants holding life vests gather onto a pebble beach in the Yesil liman district of Canakkale, northwestern Turkey, after being stopped by Turkish police in their attempt to reach the Greek island of Lesbos on 29 January 2016.
Refugees flash the 'V for victory' sign during a demonstration as they block the Greek-Macedonian border
Migrants have been braving sub zero temperatures as they cross the border from Macedonia into Serbia.
A sinking boat is seen behind a Turkish gendarme off the coast of Canakkale's Bademli district on January 30, 2016. At least 33 migrants drowned on January 30 when their boat sank in the Aegean Sea while trying to cross from Turkey to Greece.
A general view of a shelter for migrants inside a hangar of the former Tempelhof airport in Berlin, Germany
Refugees protest behind a fence against restrictions limiting passage at the Greek-Macedonian border, near Gevgelija. Since last week, Macedonia has restricted passage to northern Europe to only Syrians, Iraqis and Afghans who are considered war refugees. All other nationalities are deemed economic migrants and told to turn back. Macedonia has finished building a fence on its frontier with Greece becoming the latest country in Europe to build a border barrier aimed at checking the flow of refugees
A father and his child wait after being caught by Turkish gendarme on 27 January 2016 at Canakkale's Kucukkuyu district
Migrants make hand signals as they arrive into the southern Spanish port of Malaga on 27 January, 2016 after an inflatable boat carrying 55 Africans, seven of them women and six chidren, was rescued by the Spanish coast guard off the Spanish coast.
A refugee holds two children as dozens arrive on an overcrowded boat on the Greek island of Lesbos
A child, covered by emergency blankets, reacts as she arrives, with other refugees and migrants, on the Greek island of Lesbos, At least five migrants including three children, died after four boats sank between Turkey and Greece, as rescue workers searched the sea for dozens more, the Greek coastguard said
Migrants wait under outside the Moria registration camp on the Lesbos. Over 400,000 people have landed on Greek islands from neighbouring Turkey since the beginning of the year
The bodies of Christian refugees are buried separately from Muslim refugees at the Agios Panteleimonas cemetery in Mytilene, Lesbos
Macedonian police officers control a crowd of refugees as they prepare to enter a camp after crossing the Greek border into Macedonia near Gevgelija
A refugee tries to force the entry to a camp as Macedonian police officers control a crowd after crossing the Greek border into Macedonia near Gevgelija
Refugees are seen aboard a Turkish fishing boat as they arrive on the Greek island of Lesbos after crossing a part of the Aegean Sea from the Turkish coast to Lesbos
An elderly woman sings a lullaby to baby on a beach after arriving with other refugees on the Greek island of Lesbos after crossing the Aegean sea from Turkey
A man collapses as refugees make land from an overloaded rubber dinghy after crossing the Aegean see from Turkey, at the island of Lesbos
A girl reacts as refugees arrive by boat on the Greek island of Lesbos after crossing the Aegean sea from Turkey
Refugees make a show of hands as they queue after crossing the Greek border into Macedonia near Gevgelija
People help a wheelchair user board a train with others, heading towards Serbia, at the transit camp for refugees near the southern Macedonian town of Gevgelija
Refugees board a train, after crossing the Greek-Macedonian border, near Gevgelija. Macedonia is a key transit country in the Balkans migration route into the EU, with thousands of asylum seekers - many of them from Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia - entering the country every day
An aerial picture shows the "New Jungle" refugee camp where some 3,500 people live while they attempt to enter Britain, near the port of Calais, northern France
A Syrian girl reacts as she helped by a volunteer upon her arrival from Turkey on the Greek island of Lesbos, after having crossed the Aegean Sea
Refugees arrive by boat on the Greek island of Lesbos after crossing the Aegean sea from Turkey
Beds ready for use for migrants and refugees are prepared at a processing center on January 27, 2016 in Passau, Germany. The flow of migrants arriving in Passau has dropped to between 500 and 1,000 per day, down significantly from last November, when in the same region up to 6,000 migrants were arriving daily.
Can illegal migrant routes into the EU be shut altogether?
EA: "The idea of completely closing the border seems not only a bit excessive but also not very effective.
"When you shut down borders completely you end up increasing irregular movement and therefore, by definition, you increase the number of irregular, undetected, faceless people coming into your territory.
"That is more difficult to control, from many points of view but eventually including internal security. Without talking about terrorists, you have a bunch of people where you don’t know who they are, you don’t know where they are, so that in itself is a security management issue.
"Before giving up, traffickers and smugglers will try other, more dangerous routes. For them these people are disposable items – once they get paid to put people across a border they don’t care if they arrive safely on the other side.
"I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a return to movement across the central Mediterranean. It is a route that has continued in far lower numbers since the [safer] western Balkans movement became the preferred one in the last six or seven months. It might renew – and in bigger numbers."
Where else can the refugees turn?
EA: "We cannot just leave it to the neighbouring countries, they are already overwhelmed. Lebanon alone has the same number of refugees as arrived in Europe in the whole of last year – among a population of just 4.5 million.
"It is becoming too big a challenge, and if the burden isn’t shared people are bound to move on. Just thinking that the rest of the world can deal with the problem does not work because sooner or later this huge movement of people will affect Europe in the end anyway.
"Other countries are looking at the possibility of legal resettlement which, because the transfer is taken care of by governments, can be done to any part of the world.
"Canada has resettled 25,000 Syrians over the past couple of months, while the US is doing a bit. But others, particularly Gulf states closer to the region, should do more.
"In order to tackle the immediate consequences of this conflict, better sharing of the charge of the refugee population that is right now 90 per cent weighing on neighbouring countries is important because there is no other solution.
"Europe has a bigger role to play. Right now resettlement of citizens to Europe is at a very low level compared to other parts of the world. The myth that everyone wants to reach Europe is incorrect."
How can Europe do more?
EA: "There is definitely a lot that needs to be done, by Turkey but also by all the EU member states, to fight trafficking more aggressively. People smuggling is a transnational crime, so by definition it has links across borders – that’s the way it works and that’s why they are effective.
"But the fight against trafficking is not just about stopping boats, destroying boats or arresting people. It has to do with much more aggressive prosecution of the masterminds of the criminal groups, but also needs to be accompanied by a different policy in terms of legal migration.
"The traffickers’ “business model” is not just based on boats or herding people across unchecked border lines – it is largely based on the fact that legal channels for refugees or migrants to reach Europe are non-existent.
"In the absence of any legal option, if you are desperate or in need you will pursue less legal options."
What happens if no one takes them?
EA: "There is also some truth that the tougher you get with a population in need, especially coming from the region of the Middle East and Arab countries, the more likely it is that you raise resentment among this population that is kept out.
"And the more you increase resentment of these people, especially the youngsters, the easier prey they become for whoever wants to exploit that resentment."
[You mean pushing them into the hands of groups like Isis?] "There is that risk. I’m not saying that is happening with everyone who is turned away right now, but you increase the risk of that, yes.
"Marginalised people are easier prey of all sorts of criminal groups, not just terrorists.
"But again if you look at the profiles of the terrorists who carried out recent attacks in Europe, they all come from some level of history of marginalisation within their own society.
"The terrorist group offers them a way out – not necessarily a good one but it might become the only one."Reuse content