Tension as EU monitors enter Georgia
Troops on ground but doubts remain over plan
The start of a European Union mission to monitor Russia's promised troop withdrawal from Georgia got off to a nerve-racking beginning yesterday because of last-minute taunts by Moscow, and remaining doubts over its ultimate chances of success.
More than 200 peacekeepers are being deployed under a French-brokered ceasefire to force Russia to pull back its troops from buffer zones inside Georgia by 10 October. But the launch stuttered when Moscow refused to allow the monitors access to what it calls the "security" area, citing technical issues related to the peace agreement.
The peacekeepers, led by France and Italy, were eventually able to reach their regional headquarters yesterday, but full access remained an issue. The head of the mission, Hansjoerg Haber, said that assurances given by the Kremlin were "understood differently" by the military on the ground, amid reports that some observers were forced to turn back from border regions.
The EU hopes to set up a "step by step" withdrawal of Russian troops and a simultaneous return of Georgian police to avoid a security vacuum, which could play into the hands of roaming militias. But its longer-term success is a greater gamble as it will depend if peacekeepers are able to go beyond the buffer zones, and into the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia, whose troops arrived in August after Georgia sought to retake South Ossetia, has recognised the independence of both territories and has defied all calls to withdraw its troops. Instead, it says it plans to post more than 7,000 to "guarantee security" in those areas.
"I think it very unlikely Russia will make concessions on these territories, certainly not now," says Antonio Missiroli of the European Policy Centre, a Brussels-based think-tank. "The diplomatic game is complicated because it is now telling the Europeans they have to negotiate with those territories themselves, not with Georgia, something which no one is willing to do."
This week, the EU repeated calls for the mission to be allowed to deploy fully, in line with the deal brokered last month by French President Nicolas Sarkozy. "We consider both territories part of Georgia and we do not accept their independence," insisted Christina Gallach, spokeswoman for EU's foreign diplomacy chief, Javier Solana. "So this is something we will have to see later this month, once we know the Russian forces are out of the buffer zones."
Privately, however, some diplomats are concerned the EU may be promising more than it can deliver, and does not have the power to force Russia to pull out. "I think it will be extremely difficult to go as far as we wanted. At the end of the day, we have to get a deal with Moscow, and that will be very tough," said one EU official. A meeting in Switzerland on 15 October, originally billed as the crunch moment when tough negotiations would be brokered with Georgia and Russia to stabilise the region, now appears substantially scaled-back. High-level diplomats, not heads of state, are likely to lead the talks.
While the Georgia mission is very different from other EU peacekeeping operations – it is civilian, not military and it is funded not by member states but by the European Commission – its outcome may well help shape future plans to broaden out EU's defence policy. France, the current holder of the revolving EU presidency, is this week trying to give new impetus to its ambitions to boost the EU's military capabilities during a defence ministers' meeting in Normandy.
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