Turkey has started to impose economic sanctions on Iraqi Kurdistan by stopping flights between Istanbul and the Kurdish capital, Arbil. The Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani said yesterday that Turkey had closed its airspace "not only to Kurdistan but also to Baghdad".
An economic embargo by Turkey would have a devastating impact on the economy of Iraqi Kurdistan, which is dependent on supplies coming from Turkey over the Habur Bridge in the east of the country. The closure of the bridge, which carries 1,000 lorries a day, would also be a serious blow to US forces in Iraq, who receive much of their fuel and supplies through Turkey.
Mr Barzani was speaking at a press conference with Des Browne, the Defence Secretary, who was on his first visit to Iraqi Kurdistan. He expressed strong British opposition to "a cross-border" operation by Turkey and gave generous praise to Mr Barzani, who is president of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
Mr Barzani declined to join Mr Browne in condemning the PKK as "terrorists", saying that he would only do so if they turned down a Turkish offer of talks – something that Turkey has adamantly refused to do.
Turkey is trying to force the KRG to act against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has camps in mountainous border regions, by escalating military and economic threats.
Confidence in the future of Iraqi Kurdistan is fragile and an economic embargo would have a devastating impact. "For four or five years we have been encouraging foreign companies to come here," said a Kurdish businessman. "Now if there is a Turkish attack, even if it is only by one helicopter, it will stop anybody coming." Several foreign oil companies are making plans to get their employees out of Kurdistan in the event of war.
Since the KRG is dependent on Turkey for everything from cement to tomatoes, an economic blockade would lead to a sharp rise in prices. Ordinary Kurds have already been hit by high inflation. Most workers in Kurdistan have low-paying jobs with the government, which pays their salaries through its 17 per cent share in Iraq's oil revenues.
The Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is pursuing a policy of talking tough to frighten the Iraqi Kurds and the US but he clearly does not want to invade. He denied yesterday that Turkish air space had been closed to flights to Iraqi Kurdistan though one charter firm, Tarhan Tower, confirmed that Turkey's civil aviation authority had denied permission for two of its flights to fly from Istanbul to Arbil.
Ideally, Turkey would like to repeat its success against the PKK in 1999 when it forced Syria to order the PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan to leave Syria. He was later abducted in Nairobi and put on trial in Turkey.
The Turkish Foreign minister, Ali Babacan, said "the target of economic sanctions won't be Iraqis – the target will be the terrorist organisation". But it is unclear how this would work. The PKK has depots of supplies in the mountains and plenty of money to buy more. Turkey's initial aim will probably be to go after companies owned by Mr Barzani's family, which reportedly has interests in Turkey.
Iraqi Kurdistan has been presenting itself as the one part of Iraq which is stable and at peace. There are plenty of signs of construction in Arbil but many projects have stopped work because of over-ambitious expectations or the soaring price of construction materials. In several cases the central bank has had to intervene to keep them going.
Kurdistan has also been encouraging foreign oil companies to look for oil. But the Iraqi Oil Ministry has contested the KRG's right to sign oil contracts. The Oil minister, Hussein Shahristani, says he will never do business again with oil companies which have signed deals he deems illegal. He also says there is little point in foreign companies developing oilfields from which they have no pipeline to export the oil. Turkey is unlikely to grant them permission to build a pipeline through its territory. The profitability of newly discovered oil wells in Kurdistan therefore depends on an agreement between Baghdad and the KRG.
All parties are eager for somebody else to do something about the PKK but it is not clear what can be done. The PKK is not very numerous, has highly mobile camps rather than bases and can hide in the vast mountain ranges along the Turkish and Iranian frontiers.
Comments