Haiti Showdown: Deal with junta could be just the start of the problem

IF Jimmy Carter's last-ditch attempt to persuade the Haitian military junta to step down voluntarily succeeds, this could still cause the US and the UN almost as many problems as if the generals sit tight and force an invasion to take place. If the junta leaves peacefully, it is possible that the US-led forces might get ashore without opposition, but that depends on how effective the Haitian command structure is and on the local forces' attitude to the deposed elected President, Jean-Baptiste Aristide.

Another problem is that the 'multinational force', which UN Resolution 940 envisages as securing a 'stable and secure environment throughout Haiti', is not yet multinational. The invasion force cruising within sight of the coast is virtually all US. But, for the purposes of the relevant UN resolutions, it is 'multinational'.

On Friday HMS Lancaster, a British frigate which was returning home from the West Indies, reached Bermuda before it turned back 'committed to the US', in according to the Ministry of Defence's words. The other British frigate in the area, HMS Broadsword, is too heavily committed to other duties, the MoD said yesterday. The Lancaster will not take a direct part in any invasion, but will help in directing ship traffic and rescuing survivors from any US planes or helicopters that fall in the sea.

Yesterday the US Command Ship, the 16,000-ton Mount Whitney, the flagship of the Second Fleet with five separate satellite communications systems on board, was clearly busy.

The immediately available combat force comprises about 6,000 US troops and Marines: reportedly about 2,000 from the 82nd Airborne Division and 2,000 from the 10th Mountain Division, on the carriers America and Dwight D Eisenhower, respectively, poised to fly into Port-au-Prince, and an 1,800-strong US Marine air-ground task force on the amphibious assault ships Wasp and Nashville, targeting the northern city of Cap Haitien. This suggests a coup de main in which the Airborne troops could seize the headquarters of the Haitian regime while the Marines secured another port for the arrival of heavy back-up equipment. The choice of 10th Mountain Division is significant. Haiti is mountainous, but most US Army troops are trained for mechanised war, whereas the Mountain troops will be more at home operating on their feet in a 'peace-keeping' and humanitarian aid role.

If the junta led by Lieutenant General Raoul Cedras leaves voluntarily, there would have to be a delay while the truly multinational force assembling in Puerto Rico gets ready, or, more likely, the US 'multinational' invasion force will go in anyway and until a genuinely multinational UN force - the UN Mission in Haiti (UNMIH) - is able to take over. UNMIH has only just begun to assemble in Puerto Rico.

UN Resolution 940 authorises a 'multinational force under unified command to control and . . . to use all necessary means to facilitate the departure from Haiti of the military leadership'. In practice, the US force cruising off Haiti fulfils this role. The only 'multinational' element will be the force of 60 UN observers, who will 'monitor the operations of the multinational force' and prepare for UNMIH's deployment on completion of the former's mission.

The UN Secretary-General's report of 15 July, which forms the basis for Resolution 940 of 31 July, says the subsequent deployment of the UN Mission in Haiti is likely to take place 'in a disturbed and violent environment. Not only might the force face hostile action directed against it by individuals or organised groups from the armed forces of Haiti or other sectors of Haitian society that have supported the illegal regime, but it might also be confronted by intra-Haitian violence, as scores are settled after the departure of the senior Haitian military leadership.'

The Secretary-General's report says that, following the seizure of control by the 'multinational force', the UNMIH, which he said should be expanded to 6,000 troops, must establish control over all points of entry, including seaports and Port-au-Prince airport, and main supply routes so that the elements of the international presence can move freely around the country. It must provide security for itself and the restored Aristide government, maintain public order, including the disarmament of paramilitary groups which have been set up to wage a guerrilla war against any US or UN occupying force. Finally, they will have to supervise the retraining and pro fessionalisation of the Haitian Armed Force, the establishment of an independent civil police force, and assist the new authorities in holding parliamentary elections.

The US-led UN operation will be one of the most complex UN interventions so far.

A recent UN report said the humanitarian situation in Haiti was 'alarming'. Unemployment is more than 50 per cent, diarrhoea, malaria, typhoid, acute respiratory infections and measles are rife.

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