Assad's sense of security shaken as Russia admits he could yet be ousted

Evacuation plans put in place as Nato chief agrees it is 'only a matter of time' until regime falls


Russia today conceded that a victory of the Syrian opposition is possible, putting in doubt the extent to which the Syrian government can depend on its most important ally.

“One must look the facts in the face,” said Moscow’s special envoy for Middle East Affairs, Mikhail Bogdanov, quoted by the state-run RIA news agency. “Unfortunately, the victory of the Syrian opposition cannot be ruled out.”

Mr Bogdanov said the Syrian government was “losing control of more and more territory” and that Moscow was preparing plans to evacuate Russian citizens if necessary. These would include many Russians who married Syrians during the two countries’ long alliance. It is not clear if this means any fundamental change in the Russian position or whether Mr Bogdanov is speaking of a possible rebel victory in the short or the long term. It was suggested yesterday that he was unaware of the presence of journalists when he made the remarks.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the Nato Secretary-General, separately said that it is “only a matter of time” before the regime falls. As part of his speech, he confirmed that the Syrian government had fired short-range missiles at opposition forces in the north of the country. On Syrian state television today, it was denied that the government had employed Scud missiles against FSA fighters, which had been suggested by American sources on Wednesday.

The Syrian deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Miqdad told The Independent in an interview this week that the Syrian government holds daily conversations with the Russians. He did not say that there had been any change in the Russian position which is to oppose foreign intervention in Syrian affairs and to block any military move by the US and its allies to take military action under the auspices of the UN as in Libya.

There have been a number of car bombs in and around and the capital in the last few days, including at least one today, but a government counter-offensive appears to have thrown back a rebel offensive launched several weeks ago. Although opposition sources claimed to hold a swathe of territory to the east and south east of Damascus there was traffic yesterday on the airport road, which the rebels have been seeking to close. The roads north to Homs and west to Beirut are open.

A car bomb has killed at least 16 men, women and children in Qatana, a town about 15 miles southwest of Damascus where many soldiers live, according to the state media. Rami Abdelrahman, head of the pro- opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, put the death toll as 17, including seven children and two women. State television showed soldiers walking past a half-collapsed building, with rubble and twisted metal on the road.

Earlier in the week there was a bomb at the entrance to the Interior Ministry in which five people were killed including Abdullah Kayrouz, a member of parliament from the Syrian Social Nationalist Party. There have been other bombs in Jaramana, which largely inhabited by Druze and Christians, and an area with many Alawites living in it. The bombings may be aimed at keeping up the pressure on the government at a time when there is not much ground action in the capital. Many opposition strongholds like Douma and al-Qaboun have been heavily bombarded by artillery, forcing most of their population to take refuge in other parts of the city.

Diplomats in Damascus caution against imagining that the government is likely to fall in the immediate future, saying it still has considerable strength. Many people in Damascus are very worried that the capital could be reduced to the level of Aleppo which has been partially destroyed.

There is also fear that the rebels are increasingly sectarian, fundamentalist and likely to target not only Syria’s 2.5 million Alawites, many of them in the army and security forces, but anybody associated with the Syrian government.

At the same time the Russians may be distancing themselves from Bashar al-Assad and his regime as 130 countries recognise the opposition coalition as the legitimate government of Syria. Though Syrian officials deny that this diplomatic isolation makes any difference on the ground it is bound to enhance the international standing of the rebels.

Start your day with The Independent, sign up for daily news emails
ebooksNow available in paperback
  • Get to the point
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Independent Dating

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

Ashdown Group: Senior Accounts Assistant - Accounts Payable - St. Albans

£26000 - £28000 per annum + benefits : Ashdown Group: Senior Accounts Assistan...

Ashdown Group: Treasury Assistant - Accounts Assistant - London, Old Street

£24000 - £26000 per annum + benefits : Ashdown Group: A highly successful, glo...

Recruitment Genius: Installation and Service / Security Engineer

£22000 - £40000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This company is part of a Group...

Recruitment Genius: Service Charge Accounts Assistant

£16000 - £18000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: Are you a a young, dynamic pers...

Day In a Page

General Election 2015: Chuka Umunna on the benefits of immigration, humility – and his leader Ed Miliband

Chuka Umunna: A virus of racism runs through Ukip

The shadow business secretary on the benefits of immigration, humility – and his leader Ed Miliband
Yemen crisis: This exotic war will soon become Europe's problem

Yemen's exotic war will soon affect Europe

Terrorism and boatloads of desperate migrants will be the outcome of the Saudi air campaign, says Patrick Cockburn
Marginal Streets project aims to document voters in the run-up to the General Election

Marginal Streets project documents voters

Independent photographers Joseph Fox and Orlando Gili are uploading two portraits of constituents to their website for each day of the campaign
Game of Thrones: Visit the real-life kingdom of Westeros to see where violent history ends and telly tourism begins

The real-life kingdom of Westeros

Is there something a little uncomfortable about Game of Thrones shooting in Northern Ireland?
How to survive a social-media mauling, by the tough women of Twitter

How to survive a Twitter mauling

Mary Beard, Caroline Criado-Perez, Louise Mensch, Bunny La Roche and Courtney Barrasford reveal how to trounce the trolls
Gallipoli centenary: At dawn, the young remember the young who perished in one of the First World War's bloodiest battles

At dawn, the young remember the young

A century ago, soldiers of the Empire – many no more than boys – spilt on to Gallipoli’s beaches. On this 100th Anzac Day, there are personal, poetic tributes to their sacrifice
Dissent is slowly building against the billions spent on presidential campaigns – even among politicians themselves

Follow the money as never before

Dissent is slowly building against the billions spent on presidential campaigns – even among politicians themselves, reports Rupert Cornwell
Samuel West interview: The actor and director on austerity, unionisation, and not mentioning his famous parents

Samuel West interview

The actor and director on austerity, unionisation, and not mentioning his famous parents
General Election 2015: Imagine if the leading political parties were fashion labels

Imagine if the leading political parties were fashion labels

Fashion editor, Alexander Fury, on what the leaders' appearances tell us about them
Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka: Home can be the unsafest place for women

Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka: Home can be the unsafest place for women

The architect of the HeForShe movement and head of UN Women on the world's failure to combat domestic violence
Public relations as 'art'? Surely not

Confessions of a former PR man

The 'art' of public relations is being celebrated by the V&A museum, triggering some happy memories for DJ Taylor
Bill Granger recipes: Our chef succumbs to his sugar cravings with super-luxurious sweet treats

Bill Granger's luxurious sweet treats

Our chef loves to stop for 30 minutes to catch up on the day's gossip, while nibbling on something sweet
London Marathon 2015: Paula Radcliffe and the mother of all goodbyes

The mother of all goodbyes

Paula Radcliffe's farewell to the London Marathon will be a family affair
Everton vs Manchester United: Steven Naismith demands 'better' if Toffees are to upset the odds against United

Steven Naismith: 'We know we must do better'

The Everton forward explains the reasons behind club's decline this season
Arsenal vs Chelsea: Praise to Arsene Wenger for having the courage of his convictions

Michael Calvin's Last Word

Praise to Wenger for having the courage of his convictions