Is surge working? US commanders hail fall in Baghdad killings

US military commanders in Iraq have accused insurgents of using children in suicide bombings and staging poison gas attacks in a campaign to undermine the month-old security "surge" in Baghdad and Anbar province.

The clampdown in the capital is credited with bringing a sharp reduction in civilian deaths in recent weeks, even though the number of attacks has remained fairly constant. "There are tanks and Humvees on every street corner," said an independent observer who returned from Baghdad last week. "There is a real change of atmosphere from earlier this year, before the operation began." According to David Kilcullen, senior counter-insurgency adviser to General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq, heightened security has forced suicide bombers to detonate their devices at checkpoints well away from targets such as markets and other public gatherings, "killing far fewer people than intended, and far fewer than in similar attacks last year".

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Colonel Kilcullen, an Australian former special forces officer, added that several bombs failed to explode, "showing a loss of skill as key bomb-makers are taken off the streets". Other reports show a steep decline in the number of bodies found dumped overnight, indicating that the "surge" is curbing the activities of death squads.

Civilian deaths in Baghdad were at record levels in the final months of last year, and remained high in January. Then, the start of the "surge" around 20 February saw the number of deaths fall in that month by more than two thirds, to 446. But the difficulty of maintaining the improvement was shown by events in March. Another reduction in deaths seemed on the cards until last Thursday, when two suicide attackers wearing explosives vests blew themselves up in a market in the mainly Shia Shaab district, killing nearly 80 people.

Though counter-insurgency officials point out that suicide bombers are increasingly being forced by the security measures to attack their targets on foot rather than in vehicles, and that it will never be possible to prevent all bombings until the populace has been won over by follow-up measures, the dramatic loss of life is still a setback. Yesterday a car bomb killed another five people outside the Sadrayn hospital in the sensitive area of Sadr City, the Shia stronghold in Baghdad.

So far directors of the "surge" have managed to steer a course between Shia and Sunni suspicions. The operation began with heavy fighting in Doura, a heavily Sunni area in the south of the city, followed by clashes in the mixed Haifa Street district. Early this month, American and Iraqi forces moved into Sadr City without resistance from the Mehdi Army of the radical Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. The onus is now on them, however, to show that they can prevent attacks by Sunni insurgents.

On Friday Nasser al-Rubaie, parliamentary spokesman for Mr Sadr's bloc, gave crucial support for the operation, saying "there is no alternative ... except anarchy". But those seeking to provoke anarchy are hitting back. The crackdown in Baghdad is driving violence into other areas, with the US military admitting last week that suicide and car bomb attacks in the whole of Iraq had jumped 30 per cent since the operation began.

Al-Qa'ida in Iraq is accused of involvement in a spate of bombings around Ramadi and Fallujah which have released chlorine gas, while a Pentagon spokesman, Major General Michael Barbero, pointed to two recent suicide attacks using children. In one, a car was allowed through a checkpoint because there were two small children on the back seat. The attackers later abandoned the car, allowing it to blow up with the children still inside.

More recently, an Iraqi police convoy was pursuing a suspicious vehicle in Anbar province. As they passed a 12-to-14 year old boy riding a bicycle, a bomb in his backpack exploded. "These acts - the use of poison gas and the use of children as weapons - are unacceptable in any civilised society and demonstrate the truly dishonourable nature of this enemy," Gen Barbero said.

Col Kilcullen argued that attacks by Sunnis against members of their own community, including the first use of poison gas in Iraq since Saddam Hussein killed thousands of Kurds in Halabja in 1988, showed "an incredible level of desperation". They were "own goals" which had contributed to a major shift in Anbar province, where he said only one out of 18 major tribes supported the Iraqi government a year ago. "Today 14 out of the 18 tribes are actively securing their people, providing recruits to the Iraqi police and hunting down al-Qa'ida."

But Gen Petraeus and his advisers emphasise that their strategy, with the troop "surge" only due to be complete by the end of June, will take time - possibly years - to achieve results. President George Bush's beleaguered administration in Washington needs dramatic success much more quickly.

TV news bulletins show daily rocket attacks on the supposedly secure Green Zone in Baghdad, and daily mass suicide bombings. While the capital may be getting marginally safer, all viewers in the US know is that slaughter is continuing on a daily basis in Iraq.

The Senate and House of Representatives have both voted for withdrawal next year as part of a military spending bill. All they have to agree on before sending the bill to Mr Bush is which month. The stage is set for a battle over hearts and minds in Washington which will rival any in Iraq for its influence on what happens to American forces on the ground. Unless the security operation in Baghdad can rescue Mr Bush, those conducting it are unlikely to be given the time they say they need.