Israelis say Arafat's days are numbered after defeat by MPs

Israeli officials said yesterday that the resignation of Yasser Arafat's cabinet on Wednesday was "clear evidence" that his days at the head of the Palestinian Authority were numbered.

Mr Arafat's entire cabinet resigned rather than face a motion of no confidence in the Palestinian Legislative Council, the Palestinians' parliament. The head of Israeli military intelligence, General Aharon Ze'evi, described that yesterday as an "earthquake in the Palestinian Authority".

But while it was the worst humiliation Mr Arafat has suffered at the hands of his people since his return from exile in 1994, the rebellion appears to have been directed not so much at his position as leader of the Palestinians, as at the extent of his powers and the way he uses them.

Mr Arafat also agreed on Wednesday to set 20 January as the day for elections, both parliamentary and to his own presidential post, and all the indications are that he will win comfortably. Ziad Abu Amr, a Palestinian politician, said: "The people are angry but they don't want him to step aside. They want him to carry out the required changes."

There is little sign that the Palestinians are about to do President George Bush's bidding and dispense with Mr Arafat. Wednesday's dispute, which has had Western observers peering into the Byzantine workings of Palestinian politics, appears to be more about democratisation than one personality.

It was a power struggle between President and parliament in which parliament, for once, came off best. Until yesterday, Mr Arafat had largely used the Legislative Council as a rubber stamp for his own autocratic decisions.

The actual question on which the Council decided to take him on appears to be a mere legal quibble: that he had broken the law by appointing 21 cabinet ministers instead of 19. But as a means of asserting parliament's right to be consulted on the make-up of the cabinet, the move proved highly successful.

In a gamble to avoid a motion of no confidence in his cabinet, Mr Arafat agreed to 20 January as an election date. It did not pay off. One after another, more than 50 legislators stood up to denounce the cabinet as illegal. Eventually, the ministers decided to quit rather than face a no-confidence vote they would have lost.

But although Mr Arafat's position as the head of the Palestinian Authority does not ­ at least yet ­ appear to be under serious threat from within, his wings have been clipped, and that will please the Israelis and the Americans.

Moreover, there is talk among Palestinians that this may lead to the appointment of a Prime Minister, to take much of the day-to-day running of affairs out of Mr Arafat's hands. That idea has been mooted for some time, largely as a way around President Bush's refusal to deal with Mr Arafat, but Mr Arafat, despite his jokes to the Legislative Council about it on Wednesday ­ he suggested he would like the rest ­ is not thought to be keen. The momentum in favour now may overrule him.

One development that will be less welcome to the Americans and Israelis is the formal announcement of 20 January as the date for Palestinian elections. America has been trying to delay the elections, apparently because it fears Mr Arafat will win an early vote and believes sidelining him would be easier, given more time.

Nabil Abu Rdainah, Mr Arafat's top aide, called for Palestinian unity yesterday. "All efforts now should focus on uniting ourselves and maintaining national unity in order to get rid of the [Israeli] occupation," he said.