Jamal Khashoggi: What we know and what we don’t know about the journalist's death

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Three weeks ago, the dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi walked into the Saudi consulate in Istanbul to collect paperwork he needed to get married. He was never heard from again.

What followed was a gruesome spectacle of leaks and lies in which Saudi Arabia denied any knowledge of Khashoggi’s whereabouts, while Turkish investigators drip-fed details of their investigation to the press.

Saudi Arabia was eventually forced to admit that the 59-year-old journalist never left the consulate and was in fact killed there. The official explanation was that he had died in a “fistfight.”

That story was not enough to convince even the Kingdom’s closest allies. The incident has caused a diplomatic crisis for Saudi Arabia and its de-facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who investigators say has close links with the suspects in the killing.

And while Khashoggi’s fate is now known, it is unclear how deep the crisis will go for Saudi Arabia.

1. Who was Jamal Khashoggi?

   Jamal Khashoggi was one of Saudi Arabia’s most prominent journalists, who in later life became an advocate for reform in his country.

   Khashoggi was close to the Saudi royal family for decades, even serving as an advisor to Prince Turki bin-Faisal, the country’s former intelligence chief.

   But in recent years, he fell out of favour with Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman over criticism of his rule. As the ambitious prince garnered praise in western capitals for his reform agenda, Khashoggi became concerned about a simultaneous crackdown on dissent.

   “As we speak today, there are Saudi intellectuals and journalists jailed,” Khashoggi told Al-Jazeera in March. “Now nobody will dare to speak and criticise the reform ... It would be much better for him to allow a breathing space for critics, for Saudi intellectuals, Saudi writers, Saudi media to debate.”

   In 2017 he fled Saudi Arabia to the US, where he lived in self-imposed exile in order to be able to speak freely. He wrote a regular column for The Washington Post in which he criticised the direction his country was going under the 33-year-old crown prince.

   In a September column for the newspaper, he wrote: “I have left my home, my family and my job, and I am raising my voice. To do otherwise would betray those who languish in prison. I can speak when so many cannot. I want you to know that Saudi Arabia has not always been as it is now. We Saudis deserve better.”

2. What do we know about what happened to him?

   Much of what has been revealed about Khashoggi’s murder is the result of leaks from Turkish officials to media outlets – only some of which is verifiable.

   What we do know is that Khashoggi first visited the Saudi consulate on 28 September to obtain a document certifying that he was divorced, so that he could marry his Turkish fiancée, Hatice Cengiz. He was told to return on 2 October.

   Turkish officials say that in the early hours of that morning, a team of suspected Saudi agents arrived in Istanbul on a private jet and check into two hotels near the consulate. A second group arrived later that day.

   CCTV showed the suspected agents entering the consulate around noon on 2 October. Khashoggi arrived at the consulate an hour later. While inside, Turkish officials say the journalist was tortured and killed and that his body was then removed.

   Officials later leaked that they have audio evidence of the killing, but that has not yet been made public.

3. What has happened since?

   The next day, Khashoggi’s fiancée went public with his disappearance.

   Saudi officials claim that Khashoggi left the consulate shortly after arriving. As suspicions grew, the Crown Prince himself said Saudi Arabia had ”nothing to hide” and that they were “ready to welcome the Turkish government to go and search our premises.”

   Over the next few days, a steady stream of leaks from Turkish officials cast doubt on the Saudi account.

   The first big revelation comes with the leak of surveillance footage of the alleged Saudi assassination team. Turkish media identified among the group royal guards, intelligence officers, soldiers and a post-mortem expert.

   Many of the suspects are revealed to have close links to the Crown Prince, including Maher Abdulaziz Mutreb, a former diplomat who regularly travelled with him.

   On 20 October, after a series of damaging leaks from Turkish investigators, Saudi Arabia acknowledged for the first time that Khashoggi was killed in the consulate, claiming he died in a "fistfight". A statement from Saudi Arabia’s attorney general said 18 Saudi citizens were been detained in connection to the killing.

   Two close aides of the Crown Prince were also relieved of their duties: Major Gen. Ahmed al-Assiri, the deputy chief of Saudi Arabia’s intelligence, and Saud al-Qahtani, who ran media affairs at the royal court.

   The official Saudi explanation was not accepted even by Riyadh’s close western allies, and the leaks continued.

   Days later, new surveillance footage of a man wearing wearing Khashoggi's clothes – apparently in an attempt to make it appear as though he had left – added weight to the theory that the murder was pre-planned.

4. What has the fallout been?

   Saudi Arabia’s western allies reacted with caution to early reports of Khashoggi’s murder, but as more details were revealed about the gruesome nature of the killing, that caution turned to condemnation.

   After first admitting that he was wary of risking more than $110bn arms deals with Riyadh, US President Donald Trump has since vowed “severe punishment” if the US determined the Saudi state was responsible, and called it “the worst in the history of cover-ups.”

   US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the US would be revoking visas for some Saudi officials suspected of involvement in Khashoggi’s death, and lawmakers from both parties in Congress have expressed a desire to introduce sanctions against Saudi Arabia.

   On Wednesday, Prime Minister Theresa May said the UK would also revoke visas for suspects in the case.

   "We condemn the killing of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the strongest possible terms and after his disappearance we made clear that Saudi Arabia must cooperate with Turkey and conduct a full and credible investigation,” she told Parliament.

   The developments also cast a huge shadow over a much anticipated investment conference, hosted by Crown Prince Salman. The US treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin and the UK international trade secretary Liam Fox had both been scheduled to attend the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, but pulled out at the last minute.

   However, Germany is the only country to make a concrete move so far. Chancellor Angela Merkel announced over the weekend that Germany would freeze arms exports to Saudi Arabia until Riyadh came clean.

   “As far as arms exports are concerned, they can not happen in the state we are in at the moment,” she said.

5. What do we still not know?

   The biggest question hanging over the investigation into Khashoggi’s death now is who ordered the killing. Was it a rogue operation, as the Saudis claim? Or did the order come from the Crown Prince?

   The implications of the latter of those two scenarios, if proven, could be huge.

   After weeks of attempting to stay above the fray, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan publicly linked the killing to Saudi Arabia for the first time on Tuesday, and laid out several unanswered questions.

   "Why have these 15 people, involved in the incident, met in Istanbul on the day of the murder? We are seeking answers to this. Who are these people receiving orders from? Why has the consulate been opened to investigation days after the murder rather than immediately after? Why have so many inconsistent statements been made while the murder was so clear? Why has the body of someone who was accepted as killed not been found yet?” he asked.

   "Without these questions being answered, nobody should think the issue will be closed,” he added.

   The discovery of Khashoggi’s body could categorically rule out Saudi claims that the journalist was killed in a fistfight, but the question of who ordered the murder will be much harder to answer.

6. What happens next?

   So far, Germany is the only country to announce concrete steps, by freezing arms sales to Saudi Arabia.

   While the US and the UK have promised action against the perpetrators of the killing, the two largest arms suppliers to Saudi Arabia have so far resisted calls for a major re-evaluation of ties. In announcing that the US was revoking visas of suspects in the case, Pompeo said the broader relationship with Saudi Arabia would be unchanged.

   “We continue to maintain a strong partnership with the kingdom of Saudi Arabia,” he said. “Neither the president nor I are happy with this situation. Our shared strategic interest with Saudi Arabia will remain.”

   The UK – the second biggest supplier of weapons to Saudi Arabia – has also refused to comment on the matter.

   It remains to be seen whether that will stay the same if the investigation provides clearer evidence that the killing was ordered from on high.

   In the meantime, how much further this saga damages Saudi Arabia is largely dependant on what Erdogan does next. In his speech on Tuesday, the Turkish leader did not address the Crown Prince, but instead spoke to his father, the 82-year-old King Salman. Many analysts read this as a sign that Turkey was aiming to marginalise the 33-year-old heir apparent.

   But although Erdogan sees the Crown Prince as a rival, he is unlikely to do anything that will seriously harm Turkey’s relationship with Saudi Arabia. As is true for all of Saudi’s allies, the cost would be too great.