US plans radical shake-up as more Iraqis back rebels

A political shake-up in Iraq seemed imminent last night as Paul Bremer, the top US civilian administrator, headed back to Baghdad. He was returning after an abrupt recall to Washington for emergency talks with President George Bush and his top advisers.

As he left the White House, Mr Bremer refused to give any details of changes before he had informed the US-appointed Iraqi Governing Council ­ which is struggling to meet a United Nations-imposed deadline of 15 December to come up with a timetable for a new Iraqi constitution. Speculation is growing that the US may set up a provisional government, backed by an interim constitution, in its efforts to speed up "Iraqification" and hand over power to Iraqis themselves.

As he spoke, details emerged of a new CIA analysis, making a very bleak assessment of prospects in Iraq. The report is said to warn that speedy action is essential to prevent the collapse of efforts to create a democracy, and to get the deteriorating security situation under control.

Most worryingly for the Bush administration, the report ­ details of which appeared in the Philadelphia Inquirer yesterday and which Mr Bremer did not dispute ­ suggests that increasing numbers of ordinary Iraqis are backing the insurgents, in the belief that the US-led coalition can be driven from the country.

It further warns that more aggressive retaliation to guerrilla attacks, which have been promised by US commanders, are likely only to make matters worse, by further alienating the civilian population. Last night, explosions were seen around Baghdad, which the Pentagon said were part of a US anti-terrorist operation.

The tone of the CIA document which, according to the newspaper, was prepared by the agency's station chief in Baghdad, contrasts starkly with determinedly upbeat recent public assessments of progress in Iraq by US officials, who blame the media for stressing the negative rather than the positive in their coverage.

But yesterday, hours after a deadly attack that killed at least 17 Italian peacekeepers in Nasiriyah, Mr Bremer was offering little cheer. The stakes were very high, he warned. "We are going to have difficult days ahead because the terrorists are determined to deny the Iraqis the right to run their own country.

Such was the urgency of his recall, he was forced to cancel at short notice a meeting with the visiting prime minister of Poland, one of Washington's most important coalition partners. Donald Rumsfeld, the Defence Secretary, delayed his departure on a planned trip to Asia to take part in the talks.

The immediate focus is on the 25-man Iraqi Governing Council (IGC) whose members, say that some Bush officials, are not pulling their weight ­ not attending meetings, and falling far behind schedule in the preparations for a new constitution.

Mr Bremer disputed suggestions that the IGC was a failure, and seemed to deny it would be scrapped. In almost the next breath, however, he sidestepped a question on whether the US would take the Afghan route in Iraq and impose a temporary constitution ­ what Colin Powell, the Secretary of State, has referred to as a "basic law" ­ and a temporary government, along the lines of the one in place in Kabul under President Hamid Karzai. The CIA report was gloomy about the IGC, noting that it contains several Iraqi exiles with scant public support, and claiming it had not succeeded in convincing the population at large of its effectiveness. The criticism is, however, hotly disputed by some council members.

According to Hoshyar Zebari, Iraq's foreign minister, any shortcomings were due to "American infighting" and outdated advice provided to the coalition authority by "geriatric ambassadors". In its report, the CIA is also said to have expressed the fear that resistance to the occupation might spread from the "Sunni Triangle" north and west of Baghdad to the majority Shia population.