War within a war: factional infighting and mutual suspicion mar plans for the new Iraq

As the bloodiest fighting of the war nears its end, the politics begins. Washington's efforts to prevent post-war Iraq slipping into religious and tribal conflict, lawlessness and civil disorder are focused today on its first embryonic attempt to usher in a civil interim administration at a modest gathering, close to the ruins of one of the oldest cities in the world, of some 75 Iraqis long opposed to the Baathist regime of Saddam Hussein.

The achievement of the peaceful, stable and, above all, democratic Iraq was always going to be daunting. But the senior US officials presiding over today's meeting at a reception centre in the shadow of the ziggurat at Ur, the city that lived 500 years before Christ, where Abraham was born, will have to dispel suspicions among many Iraqis that they are seeking a government as much of their own making as of the population the Allies have liberated from the tyranny of President Saddam.

The meeting, surrounded by heavy security near Nasiriyah, the southern Iraq political base of the exiled opposition leader Ahmed Chalabi, is being watched uneasily from many quarters. Russia, Germany and France will be deeply uneasy at the exclusion of the United Nations from the first conferences, regional and national to forge the political reconstruction.

The British, though represented by a senior diplomat, are nervous about the outcome. Mr Chalabi's opponents inside Iraq fear he is being given a leg up to the power he continually says he does not want. Iraq's neighbours, including Turkey and Iran, are watchful for their own interests in the emerging Iraq. And all this amid the threats of tension between Shia and Sunni, Arab against Kurd, religious and secular, tribe against tribe. Can the centre hold? And will today's meeting help ensure it does?

Senior US officials, including Zalmay Khalilzad, President Bush's special envoy on Iraq, and Jay Garner, the former US general who heads the new Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance, are "moderating" the meeting aimed at setting up an Interim Iraqi Authority within weeks.

Allied forces are providing armed escorts for representatives of opposition groups who may have to cross unsecured areas of the country to reach the meeting. Representatives of Kurdish groupings are expected to be flown from northern Iraq to join about 70 other Iraqi opposition delegates.

Senior American government sources said here that there is no fixed agenda and laid heavy emphasis on the purpose being for a diverse spread of Iraqi leaders – those inside the country as well as exiles – to forge a consensus on plans for the authority. Tony Blair suggested in the Commons that elections could follow a year after it is set up.

Fears in Europe that the UN will be given, at best, a subordinate part in the political reconstruction of Iraq will be fuelled by remarks by one senior US government source who said that while the UN would have a "role" it would not be a "managing partner". Although Britain will be represented at the talks by the Foreign Office's Middle East director, Edward Chaplin, there is wariness about what one diplomat emphasised had been a US proposal. "We have to make sure this is an Iraqi-run process and not a coalition one," he said.

Only Western representatives directly involved in the war would be at the meeting, which US sources said would lead to regional meetings, then a possible nationwide conference with similarities to the loya jirga in Afghanistan in 2002 to form an administration. Mr Khalilzad, also the President's representative for Afghanistan, played a prominent role at the loya jirga, but it was under the auspices of the UN.

Mr Chaplin, the former ambassador to Jordan, is among the British Government's leading experts on the region. When he was first secretary at the embassy in Tehran, he was abducted by six heavily armed men in reprisal for the arrest of an Iranian consular official in Manchester for shoplifting. He was released within 24 hours. Others at the talks include a Polish official, Ryszard Krystozec, and an Australian diplomat, Peter Varghas.

One senior US source said they hoped for a wide spectrum of Iraqi opposition, but described Mr Chalabi as a "very articulate and brave advocate of freedom for Iraq". The source said the Allies had flown in at least one other prominent Iraqi opposition member and several less prominent ones. Mr Chalabi has strong supporters in the Pentagon, but a leaked CIA report questioned whether as an exile he could command wide-spread support in the country.

Mr Chalabi said he had been "extremely well received" in Iraq since his return. However, he again disavowed any intention to take any office in the new Iraq. He said in an interview from Nasiryiah with Le Monde that he wanted "to take part in the reconstruction of the civilian society," but when asked whether he intended to play a political role, added: "Absolutely not. I am not a candidate for any post."

No one will know for certain until the meeting ends just how representative it has been But either way there are tough questions for the opposition groups to face – only one of which is how far the country can be "de-Baathised", to use one of Mr Chalabi's phrases – while retaining the technical and professional expertise at the middle and lower levels of almost every public service of those needed to make the country work.

Mr Chalabi said his vision for Iraq was a democracy with power in the hands of Iraqis. But he was dismissive of the UN's role in the political shaping of Iraq, saying: "I don't believe the United Nations would be able to play a central role in Iraq. It has become a de facto ally of Saddam Hussein." He cited the refusal of France and Germany, UN Security Council members, to support the US-led war in Iraq.

ATTENDING THE GATHERING

General Jay Garner

The retired US general was named by George Bush to run Iraq after the collapse of the Saddam regime. He is no stranger to the country, having been given the task of feeding and protecting Kurdish refugees in northern Iraq after the 1991 Gulf War.

Zalmay Khalilzad

President Bush's special representative, who will chair the meeting. Previously Mr Bush's special envoy to Afghanistan. The Afghan-born Mr Khalilzad, a Muslim, once lobbied for the Taliban and worked for an American oil company that sought concessions for pipelines in Afghanistan. Formerly a consultant to the US Secretary of Defence, Donald Rumsfeld, and employed by the Rand Corporation.

Ryan Crocker

Deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs

and deputy chairman of the meeting. Mr Crocker is a former US ambassador to several Arab states, including Syria, Lebanon, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq and Egypt. He was also a former ambassador to Iran.

Allied representatives

Britain is sending Edward Chaplin, a former ambassador to Jordan now in charge of Middle Eastern affairs at the Foreign Office. The Pentagon is sending Larry DiRita, an assistant to Mr Rumsfeld. Australian and Polish diplomats will also attend.

Hoshyar Zebari

A veteran leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, who is the party's influential spokesman on foreign affairs. He is considered to be an extremely astute and able politician.

... AND STAYING AWAY

Ahmed Chalabi

The Iraqi National Congress leader is sending a representative. He says he has no leadership ambitions but wants "the restoration of civil society'' in Iraq.

Ayatollah Mohamad Bakr al-Hakim

The Iran-based ayatollah leads the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq which says the meeting "is not to the benefit of the Iraqi nation". A spokesman said the Shia group would stay away because it stands for independence and would not accept "a US umbrella''.

Rafeeuddin Ahmed

Mr Ahmed was named by the UN secretary general, Kofi Annan, as his special envoy on Iraq. Mr Ahmed, a former UN development official, has held consultations at the UN on post-Saddam scenarios. He held talks with Bush officials in Washington yesterday.

Adnan Pachachi

Mr Pachachi, 80, who is based in London, has declined invitations to play a leading role in the post-Saddam era. The former Iraqi foreign minister wants a provisional UN administration.

Sheikh Muzahim Mustafa Kanan Tamimi

Sheikh Tamimi, a former brigadier general in Saddam's army, was picked by British troops to govern Basra province. Britain says he will send a representative.

Jalal Talabani

It is not known who the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan will send to the meeting but it is unlikely to be its leader, Mr Talabani.