We've broken America's back in Iraq, boasts al-Qa'ida

Hundreds of suicide bombers have "broken America's back" in three years in Iraq, Ayman al-Zawahri, the deputy leader of al-Qa'ida, said in a video released on the internet yesterday.

In a diatribe against the terror network's many enemies, Zawahri struck a triumphant note, claiming in Iraq "America, Britain and their allies have achieved nothing but losses, disasters and misfortunes".

The al-Qa'ida deputy, who like his leader, Osama bin Laden, is presumed to be hiding on the lawless Pakistan-Afghanistan border, was shown wearing a black turban and a white robe, but the assault rifle usually propped beside him was missing this time.

Zawahri referred to al-Qa'ida in Iraq, the offshoot led by the Jordanian-born Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, saying its members had "carried out 800 martyrdom operations in three years, besides the victories of other mujahideen. And this is what has broken the back of America in Iraq."

In fact, the suicide bombings of al-Qa'ida in Iraq have largely been aimed at soft targets such as Shia civilians in market-places, mosques or young men standing in long, vulnerable queues in search of jobs in the police or army. Few of the 20,000 US troops killed or injured in Iraq in the past three years were the target of al-Qa'ida.

It is an exaggeration to say America's back has been broken in Iraq, though last year, Congressman John Murtha, an ex-marine long considered the voice of the US generals, famously reported that many "say the army is broken".

But the US army has certainly failed to win the war. A leaked US State Department survey of the stability of Iraq in January 2006 shows all seven provinces where US and British troops are primarily deployed are seriously, or, in one case, critically, unstable.

Insurgents can still mortar the Green Zone in the heart of Baghdad or muster 100 fighters to overrun police stations in the provinces. I was in a military base in Mosul, the largest city in northern Iraq, a month ago. It is defended by an Iraqi brigade of 3,000. Even so, they said it was too dangerous for them to patrol the city in daytime.

Al-Qa'ida is only one part of the insurgency in Iraq, though all the many groups are, to a greater or lesser degree, religious and nationalist and opposed to the occupation. But it is by far the best publicised, because of its skilful use of the internet and videos. It also has the Americans to thank for much of its image of success, because the US has always tried to portray al-Zarqawi and al-Qa'ida as leader of all the guerrillas.

This was done to fit in with the White House's claim that by invading Iraq in 2003 it was fighting the "war against terror". Such meagre evidence as there was linking Saddam Hussein to al-Qa'ida has turned out to be faked or distorted.

Denunciations by the US have been central to the rise of al-Qa'ida in Iraq. They have enabled it to make exaggerated claims with some credibility. That in turn makes it easy for the organisation to raise money in other Islamic countries.

By over-emphasising al-Qa'ida's importance, American spokesmen also increase its popularity among Iraq's five million Sunni Muslims, of whom 88 per cent approve of armed attacks on US forces, an opinion poll shows.

The insurgency in Iraq is getting stronger because of fears among the Sunni of sectarian killings after the bombing of the Shia shrine at Samarra on 22 February. The insurgents appear to think collapse of support for the war in the US will lead to a troop withdrawal.

Al-Qa'ida now has a base in Iraq which it never possessed in Afghanistan or Pakistan. It also has violent, bigoted, experienced, well-armed and well-organised cells throughout Sunni Iraq. It may not have broken the US army, but thanks in large part to American miscalculations, it is stronger than at any time in its history.