NOBEL-WATCHERS last week said Nelson Mandela and F W de Klerk were the front-runners for this year's peace prize, writes John Carlin. But a week is a long time in politics and recent events will have given the Norwegians pause for thought. On a mission authorised by the President, commandos broke into a house in the Transkei 'homeland' and killed five young blacks, none of whom fired back, and none of whom had been proven guilty of any crime. The house, the police had said, was a haven for black terrorists. Mr de Klerk believed the police and forgot what every black child knows: that the army shoots first and asks questions later. If Mr Mandela wins the prize on his own, Mr de Klerk will only have himself to blame: this latest blunder came, many think, because the President fears whites see him as a weakling.