Analysis: Victory still in the balance in the battle for hearts and minds

Latest opinion polls in the US show shift in favour of attacking Iraq, but in Europe electorates remain unpersuaded by the case for war

George Bush and Jacques Chirac appear to be at loggerheads about what should be done next in Iraq. And there is a gulf between American and European public opinion on the subject, with Britain uneasily in the middle.

Opinion polls in the United States after Colin Powell's address to the UN Security Council, suggest support for war has hardened among Americans. A Gallup poll for CNN/USA Today showed 63 per cent favour invading Iraq, the highest figure since the crisis began last summer. An ABC News poll puts support at 66 per cent.

And US public opinion looks as though it could swing yet further in favour of military action. Just 23 per cent say the US should not send troops even if the UN were to back a second resolution.

In much of Europe voters are reluctant for military action even if backed by the UN. An IFOP poll shows 77 per cent of people in France believe their country should stay out of the war even if the UN backs action against Saddam Hussein. And a Forsa poll found 84 per cent of Germans oppose military action in Iraq.

Continental Europe's reluctance to back a war is not confined to the countries dismissed as "old Europe" by the US Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld. The prime ministers of Italy and Spain, Silvio Berlusconi and José Maria Aznar, have been far more sympathetic towards Washington's stance. Yet recent polls show two-thirds of Italians and Spaniards oppose war even if sanctioned by the UN.

US public opinion is calling for war-war, and continental Europe for jaw-jaw, but British opinion is more divided. An ICM poll for the BBC showed yesterday that 49 per cent would back action with UN backing but 45 per cent would still remain opposed.

Other polls by Populus and YouGov suggested UN backing might help generate a clear-majority support for British involvement in such a war. But with perhaps only one in 10 willing to back war without a UN resolution, it is clear Tony Blair will have a uphill task to secure the kind of public backing George Bush enjoys, if Jacques Chirac and Vladimir Putin cannot be persuaded in favour of a second UN resolution.

Not that Mr Bush can afford to ignore the UN. The latest ABC News poll found only a half of Americans support an attack on Iraq if it were opposed by the UN. Gallup puts the proportion who favour action in the absence of UN support at no more than 39 per cent. In short, even President Bush could face significant disquiet at home if he decides to abandon the UN route.

But why are Americans apparently so much more willing to back military action? It certainly is not because Europeans take a benign view of the Iraqi regime. A Europe-wide Gallup poll found 54 per cent of people in France, 56 per cent in Spain, 63 per cent in Germany and 70 per cent in Italy agreed President Saddam is a threat to world peace.

In Britain, 74 per cent of people take that view, well down on the 92 per cent of Americans convinced that President Saddam threatens their country. But they hardly suggest sympathy for him.

The real difference appears to be that European public opinion – including much opinion in Britain – has yet to be convinced the threat is grave enough to justify war now. The crucial point seems to be the failure of the weapons inspectors to find any weapons of mass destruction.

The Europe-wide Gallup poll showed that 51 per cent of Germans believed their country should help in military action if the inspectors found such evidence, and in France 70 per cent feel that way. At present, at least in Britain, ICM found only 33 per cent believe Iraq has been proved to have weapons of mass destruction, although the Populus poll shows that more than twice that number suspect he probably has.

In the US, 52 per cent already believe channels of diplomacy have been exhausted, more than half are certain Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, and 56 per cent believe President Bush has a convincing case for military action. In short, Europeans, including many people in Britain, are still willing to give Iraq the benefit of the doubt. But in the US the patience of many Americans has been exhausted.

European opposition to war is also underlined by doubts about the motives of the US. The YouGov poll shows 72 per cent of people in Britain think President Bush is determined to go to war and there is nothing President Saddam can do to change his mind. Nearly twice as many think America's principal motivation is to protect US oil interests rather than because Iraq poses a threat to world peace.

In Germany, Forsa found 57 per cent believe the US is "a nation of warmongers". In Germany and France, as many people think Russia has a positive influence on the international scene as do the US.

So, a war against Iraq threatens to drive a wedge between US and European politicians, and expose significant differences of opinion between their peoples too. It remains to be seen on which side of the divide British public opinion will eventually fall.

John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University.