Blessed is the Middle East peacemaker

Is Tony Blair going to solve the Middle East conflict then?

He might like to think so, but he's actually constrained by the narrow job description as defined by the international Quartet which appointed him. The Quartet's top negotiators – from the United States, Russia, European Union and United Nations – plan to meet in Lisbon on Thursday for the first high-level talks with Mr Blair since he was named Middle East envoy, and will obviously discuss his exact involvement. After that, he'll be off to the Middle East in the next week or so.

What's he supposed to be doing?

The Quartet decided that he should concentrate on building up Palestinian democratic institutions and economic development. He'll have a Jerusalem office where he is expected to spend a week every month. But diplomats are wondering how much time he will actually spend in the region, and whether he will delegate the dirty work to his staff. All sorts of suggestions about a bigger role for Mr Blair have been made in the last few days by a variety of players. But Mr Blair himself insists that he is happy to stick to the mandate spelled out by the Quartet, which remains the sponsor of the so-called "roadmap" for peace. He's obviously got some room for manoeuvre, but this is an area where big egos are at play and he will have to watch his back.

How did he get the job?

It looks like a parting gift to the outgoing prime minister from George Bush: the news started to leak out the day after a meeting in Washington between the US President and the Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, in Washington on 19 June. It then emerged that Mr Blair, who has long had an interest in the search for a negotiated settlement between Israel and the Palestinians and had pledged to make it the priority of his last months in office, had already discussed the possibility of becoming envoy with President Bush. The trouble is that the pair of them forgot to observe the diplomatic niceties – the first President Vladimir Putin heard of it was when Mr Blair thanked him for his support during a telephone call. That affront led to the Russians delaying the Quartet's final announcement of his appointment by a day. And when it came, on 27 June, it was greeted by the feral beasts of the Arab press with derision. Most Palestinians do not believe Mr Blair to be an honest broker.

Isn't that a problem?

Not necessarily. Mr Blair knows that he has a reputation for being President Bush's poodle and for being too closely associated with US policy in the Middle East. He is also perceived as pro-Israeli after the Lebanon war. But on the other hand, the Palestinians need all the help they can get right now, with Gaza run by the internationally-boycotted Hamas movement and the West Bank by lame duck President Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah. What Mr Blair brings to the job is the clout of a senior statesman and a proven record as a dogged and successful negotiator. If he can open up the Palestinians' prison in Gaza in co-operation with the Israelis, he will be thanked for it. But the Middle East is not Northern Ireland. And Mr Blair also knows his place – it will be US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice banging Israeli and Palestinian heads together in political talks on a two-state solution, not Mr Blair. Remember "Yo Blair", President Bush's humiliating put-down?

What are his chances of success?

Pretty slim. He's the latest in a long list of gifted politicians who have sacrificed their prime years to one of the world's most intractable conflicts. Bill Clinton lost his shirt after betting on Middle East peace at the Camp David summit in 2000. But come to think of it, he'd already lost his shirt to Monica Lewinsky. No danger of such a scenario for Mr Blair.