Bush and Blair to discuss UN role in post-war Baghdad

Ulster summit

George Bush and Tony Blair will meet in Northern Ireland tomorrow to thrash out their differences over what should happen in a post-war Iraq.

Baghdad will be ruled for at least the first 90 days after the overthrow of the Baath regime by an interim administration headed by the retired US lieutenant general Jay Garner – but after that, nothing is fixed, according to Downing Street.

An opinion poll out today suggests that while most of the public now support the decision to go to war, they also have grave doubts about whether the Iraqis will be better off when it is over.

The Yougov poll, for ITV's Dimbleby Programme, showed that 58 per cent of respondents approved of the war, and 68 per cent thought that Tony Blair's handling of it was "good" (50 per cent) or "excellent" (18 per cent).

On the other hand, 38 per cent opposed the war, and 28 per cent thought that his handling of it was "poor" (19 per cent or "very poor" (9 per cent).

However, more respondents (44 per cent) thought Iraq would be "less stable and peaceful" after the war than thought it would be "more stable and peaceful" (33 per cent). Yougov interviewed 1,582 people on 3-4 April.

Last week, Tony Blair deftly avoided direct questions from the Conservative leader, Iain Duncan Smith, and the Liberal Democrat leader, Charles Kennedy, about the extent – if any – of the United Nations role in post-war Iraq. Mr Blair is also expected to plead for British firms to receive a greater share in the contracts to rebuild Iraq's war-damaged infrastructure.

The US Agency for International Development has drawn up plans to spend around £560m to rebuild Iraq's health, education, transport and political systems. Thanks to American protectionist laws, the vast majority of contracts will go to US firms. One of the main beneficiaries will be the Houston oil services company Halliburton, which was headed for five years by Dick Cheney, now the US Vice President. More than 100 British firms have expressed an interest in the work, much of which will be sub-contracted.

Elements in the US government want the UN restricted to acting as little more than an aid agency, and see the collapse in its authority as a beneficial side-effect of the Iraq war.

That view runs contrary to Mr Blair's. Despite the failure to get direct Security Council sanction for the war, he wants the stamp of UN authority on the post-war settlement – although the British accept that the UN does not have the troops or the money to instal a government in the conquered territory.

"The United Nations will be involved in some way, but nobody is suggesting that they be involved in the administration of the country," Downing Street said yesterday.

But Chris Smith, a former cabinet minister who is now one of the leading critics of the war, said: "They may not have the capacity to rule Iraq, but it's absolutely essential that the UN authorises whatever post-war arrangements are put in place for Iraq. This is not something that should simply be decided by the invading armies."

Another topic on the agenda for the summit will be the Israel-Palestine conflict. George Bush announced just before the start of the Iraq war that he was promoting the "road map" to peace between Israel and the Arabs.

The promise to try to restart the peace process in Palestine was seen in Washington as a necessary concession to help Tony Blair answer domestic critics who alleged that Israel was being allowed to flout UN resolutions while Iraq was being invaded for defying the authority of the UN.