'Do we give in to that knee-jerk revenge?'

Christmas is about peace, not violence, say church leaders

On Christmas Eve, the Bishop of Bath and Wells will tell his congregation at Wells Cathedral that "the sanctity of life precludes all war and violence. We must be guided by a vision of the world in which nations stop seeking to resolve their problems through violence."

He is one of numerous bishops who will use their Christmas message to speak out against the increasing push by Britain and the US towards war with Iraq.

All 44 Church of Englanddiocesan bishops and the Archbishops of Canterbury and York were asked by The Independent on Sunday about the threat of war with Iraq.

At least seven of the 30 who replied said that they intended to make direct references to Iraq in their Christmas sermons.

The fact so many responded at all is remarkable in itself. Where thorny political issues are involved, Church of England bishops are not known for their candid views.

However, this is not the first time they have questioned the morality of war with Iraq. The benchmark for anti-war sentiment was set in October this year when the House of Bishops published a report questioning the morality and legality of war against Iraq.

In a submission to a leading Government committee, the bishops said force should only be considered as a last resort and military action could not be justified.

This was accompanied by a 3,000-signature petition signed by senior Anglican and Roman Catholic leaders, including the new Archbishop of Canterbury, Dr Rowan Williams, who in his Dimbleby lecture last week challenged the Government's authority.

Rt Rev Peter Price

Bath and Wells

We should take the message of the angels not as a passing hope,or as a moment of piety, but as a directive of God ..."

On Christmas Eve, the bishop will tell worshippers that "the sanctity of life precludes all war and violence. We must be guided by a vision of the world in which nations stop seeking to resolve their problems through violence."

Rt Rev John Gladwin

Guildford

The stench of war hangs over Iraq. Out of our own windows we can see the broken and excluded on our streets, hear the sounds of discord within even the most prosperous of domestic situations. We are reminded that the message of Christmas is the coming of Christ. In this vulnerable child, we see the uncertainties and inhumanities which beset this modern world and we also see its salvation.

Rt Rev Richard Lewis

Ipswich

Across the globe this year, we have become increasingly aware of a growing feeling of the need for revenge against those we feel are oppressing us. The question for all of us is whether we give in to that knee-jerk need for revenge ... or whether we address the essential questions of justice and peace that underlie that need.

Rt Rev John Packer

Ripon and Leeds

It does not feel easy to write of peace this Christmas. Iraq hangs over us all as we pray for her government, and for the United Nations in the search for peace with justice for all, and especially for minority groups in Iraq.

Rt Rev Anthony Russell

Ely

Many people in this country have severe doubts about the appropriateness of military action. The consequences would be terrible and could provoke Iraq into using some of the ghastly weapons it is believed to hold. It's not a just war. The principal conflict in the Muslim world is Israel-Palestine, and America and the UN must be prepared to work towards a resolution of this conflict.

Rt Rev Michael Turnbull

Durham

America is a very bruised nation, understandably in the aftermath of 11 September. The danger of being bruised and humiliated like that is that you want to strike back. Decision-makers in the US need to be aware of that danger and ask themselves whether the situation in Iraq and the terrorist threat are really related.

Q And will the US win the peace? A That's the really tricky one...

By Andrew Gumbel

How likely is the war?

It looked very likely even before the US declared Iraq to be in "material breach" of its UN obligations; now many experts are saying war is well-nigh inevitable. With 50,000 US troops already in the Gulf and another 50,000 on their way soon, it will become increasingly difficult to reverse course. That said, Thursday's declaration did give Saddam wiggle room: rather than declaring war immediately, the US effectively gave him until the UN weapons inspection report on 27 January to revise his weapons declarations and/or disarm. The other possibility is that Iraqi military officials would topple Saddam in a coup before the first shot was fired. Unlikely, but not impossible.

When would a war happen?

February is the month everyone is talking about. The thinking is that Hans Blix's report will be used as an excuse to start bombing almost immediately. The US is under pressure to get the fighting over before the desert heat rises to baking point (especially with troops sporting heavy chemical-resistant suits). But the Bush administration still has to make its case. Ideally, that would entail finding solid evidence of weapons of mass destruction that Saddam had not declared. The inspectors are saying it might take a year; US and British intelligence services claim they know where some weapons are, but so far have not divulged the information.

Why are Bush and the UN at odds?

The President has done little to conceal his appetite for a war against Iraq. The UN's agenda, meanwhile, has been different – not least because of the reluctance of the rest of its members to sign on to an unprovoked pre-emptive war. The Bush administration has sought every excuse to accuse Iraq of failure to co-operate. Every conceivable theory is now flying: that the US wants the inspectors to fail, or that it doesn't have the intelligence it claims to have. The inspectors are feeling extraordinary pressure; it is not clear how much they can achieve over the next month, even with hundreds of personnel and open access.

How are British forces going to be involved?

Tony Blair said Britain had to prepare for war, whether or not one materialised. The MoD says it is preparing to send up to 20,000 troops along with tanks and other equipment to the Gulf. At least three ships have been chartered to ferry equipment, and the Ark Royal (below) has been ordered to lead a six-ship task force to the Gulf sometime in January.

How is Iraq preparing?

The Pentagon says the Republican Guard has begun deploying 40 miles west of Baghdad. Ammunition has been moved closer to troop positions and satellite pictures suggest trench-digging, as well as lorries and slabs of concrete across the runways of air bases in western Iraq to impede US efforts to to set up a forward base for operations there.

What might Iraqis unleash?

Fears are even higher than in 1991 that Saddam might resort to chemical or biological weapons. The Israelis, who were then on the receiving end of Scud missiles, have drilled the population on medicines, gas masks and converting a room into a bunker against chemical attack.

How long might war last?

Optimistic assessments suggest the air war could be over in days. The speed of a ground invasion would depend on how quickly Iraqi forces folded and how easily Saddam Hussein could be pried from power. The 1991 Gulf War, which merely involved expelling Iraq from Kuwait, took six weeks.

Any chance the US can't win?

In the strict military sense, no. The depleted Iraqi forces are no match for the fearsome hi-tech armour of the US. But the US may be vulnerable in other ways: if the Iraqis can turn the tide of world opinion even further; or if events turn the American public against the war – because of high casualties, say, or anti-American violence elsewhere in the world.

Can they win the peace?

This is the really tricky one. While Iraqis are sure to welcome their "liberators", they will not tolerate an occupation. The real and bloody war for control of Iraq's oilfields will begin after Saddam has been vanquished.