UK seeks support as EU split over Iraq widens

Britain will woo potential EU allies today over its Iraq policy amid growing confidence in London that Tony Blair will not be isolated if the US launches an attack on Saddam Hussein without explicit UN backing.

With Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian Prime Minister, and Jose Maria Aznar, his Spanish counterpart, vying to prove themselves allies of Washington, there were mounting signs yesterday that the split among the 15 EU member states over a US-led warwas widening.

Germany and France have voiced opposition to a war without UN backing. Relations with Washington reached a low point last week when the Franco-German position was denounced by Donald Rumsfeld, the US Defence Secretary, as that of "old Europe".

But diplomats know Europe's options will be limited if Washington ignores the UN and proceeds with an attack. "Ultimately, if the Americans go to war, Europe can't oppose the US," said one EU official, while another added: "It is not as simple as France and Germany on one side and the UK on another." British officials see three groups of nations lining up on the issue within the EU, with Germany and France backed by Belgium, Luxembourg, Austria and Greece.

Although the UK has made the clearest demonstration of support by making big military deployments to the Gulf, it can expect support from Italy, Spain, Denmark, possibly the Netherlands – depending on the make-up of its new government – and Poland, which is about to join the EU. Another group of nations, including Ireland and Portugal, are uncommitted.

Before today's meeting of foreign ministers, those from the four EU nations on the UN Security Council – UK, France, Germany and Spain – will meet to co-ordinate their positions. If the EU foreign ministers manage to agree a declaration, it is likely to stress a strong preference for the UN route and to call for the inspectors to be given more time. But they are also likely to demand greater co-operation from Iraq with the inspections and to warn President Saddam that the Blix mission is his last chance to avert conflict.

With conflicting signals from Washington, EU nations will try hard to defer contentious points in the knowledge that this would reveal a deep split. Officials know the moment of truth will arise if it becomes clear the US will press ahead with military action without UN sanction.

Some nations are clear on their positions: Germany's Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, has ruled out participation in any conflict. Mr Blair seems determined to back the US despite the domestic difficulties that would entail. But the real dilemma might be for Jacques Chirac, France's President. One EU diplomat said: "On the one hand, they obviously want to make a common cause with Germany. But they are also very conscious of their position as a force in international relations and would not want to be excluded from significant world events."