Poll landslide predicted for ANC
Monday 17 January 1994
The ANC and the NP between them will take 80 per cent of the national vote, according to the poll, which largely confirms the findings of another poll published only five days ago by the US-funded Institute for Multi-Party Democracy.
The Sunday Times poll gives the ANC a landslide 65 per cent of the national vote, a whisker short of the two-thirds majority legally required to rewrite South Africa's constitution. The NP gets 16 per cent; Inkatha 5 per cent; the white right 4 per cent and the DP just under 3 per cent. Under the new federal system of government, the ANC will take comfortable control of seven of the nine provincial legislatures and win the other two by a narrow majority.
The poll, conducted by Markinor, took responses from 2,655 South Africans of all races, including representative numbers from the migrant workers' hostels and the more remote rural areas.
The political implications are significant, not least for the Zulu chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi's Inkatha. The poll showed that in the Natal/KwaZulu area, where the Zulu population is in the vast majority, the ANC could expect to win 46 per cent of the vote to Inkatha's 19 per cent. Elsewhere in the country Inkatha barely figured, their second best result coming in the greater Johannesburg area where their support stands at 5 per cent.
The clear message to Chief Buthelezi is that his obstructionist tactics of recent months - a candid Inkatha official said last year his party was engaged in 'constructive filibustering' - have significantly reduced Inkatha's popular appeal. Polls conducted six months ago put his support at closer to 10 per cent. The question whether to participate in the elections, already hotly debated in Inkatha circles, is certain to acquire new urgency.
Inkatha's allies in the so-called Freedom Alliance, the far-right separatists of the Afrikaner Volksfront, will also be forced to reappraise their position. The Volksfront's claim to represent Afrikaners is severely questioned by the results of the poll, which shows that in the Boer heartlands of the Northern and Eastern Transvaal they lag some way behind the NP. Nationally, the far right can lay claim to only a fifth of the white vote. Trends suggest that more whites will flock to the NP for fear of wasting their vote.
As to the radical Pan-Africanist Congress, which yesterday suspended its 'armed struggle', its support stands at less than 2 per cent. Claims during the past year by the PAC's armed wing, the Azanian People's Liberation Army (Apla), to have carried out a number of terrorist attacks against whites appear not to have made a favourable impression on the black population.
The one area in the country where, as yesterday's poll confirmed, the electoral battle will have something of an edge is the Cape Town area, the Western Cape. Here the ANC has 43 per cent support to the NP's 33 per cent, the relatively narrow margin being accounted for by the fact that here it is mixed-race Coloureds - as the apartheid definition has it - that are in the majority. Support among Coloureds for Mr de Klerk is almost as high as it is among the white community.
One theory of South Africa to which the apartheid diehards of the Volksfront still cling has been well and truly put to rest by the poll. Blacks will not vote with their tribal feet. The Sothos, the Tswanas and the Xhosas will vote for the ANC with equal enthusiasm. And as for the long-cherished right-wing notion that the Zulus will vote as a block for Inkatha, the poll results speak for themselves.
- 1 Scottish independence: Ireland since 1919 is a lesson for Scotland in what a Yes vote means
- 2 Watch a man race the Circle line - and win
- 3 A bottle of wine a day is not bad for you and abstaining is worse than drinking, scientist claims
- 4 Grandmas keep accidentally tagging themselves as Grandmaster Flash on Facebook
- 5 Daniele Watts: Django Unchained actress detained by Los Angeles police after being mistaken for a prostitute
Islamic State: Pope is 'being targeted by Isis', Iraqi ambassador to the Holy See warns
Jennifer Lawrence and Kate Upton nude pictures exhibition cancelled after artist concedes photos were 'stolen property'
Scotland independence: A nation divided against itself: Brown says SNP are liars. Darling joins in. Salmond fights back
John Travolta addresses former pilot's gay romance allegations publicly for the first time: 'That was the lowest I'd ever felt'
Richard III: Two years after his body was found scientists discover how he died
Daniele Watts: Django Unchained actress detained by Los Angeles police after being mistaken for a prostitute
The political class is doing what Hitler couldn’t – destroying Britain
Scottish independence: Nationalist leader Jim Sillars threatens pro-union companies with 'day of reckoning' after independence
Scottish independence: Yes campaign feels the heat as Alex Salmond's NHS claims come under furious attack
Portuguese academic says British are 'filthy, violent and drunk'
£23m Birmingham cycle scheme is attacked by Tory councillor for not catering to the elderly
£40000 - £45000 per annum: Ashdown Group: HR Manager / Training Manager (L&D /...
£35000 - £50000 per annum + benefits: Ashdown Group: Senior QA Engineer (Agil...
£26000 - £28000 per annum: Ashdown Group: Digital Marketing Executive (SEO, PP...
£40000 - £50000 Per Annum: Clearwater People Solutions Ltd: Our retail client ...