South African Elections: Landslide question
John Lichfield has been The Independent's man in Paris since 1997, covering French news. Before that, he was the paper's Foreign Editor and he has also worked in Brussels and Washington. In 1999, he was the UK press Awards Foreign Reporter of the year.
Wednesday 27 April 1994
A couple have even predicted that difficulties in getting out the rural vote, and a rash of accidentally spoiled papers, could bring the ANC total below 50 per cent. This would theoretically open the possibility of the new government being formed by an anti- ANC coalition of Inkatha and white-dominated parties. However, the rough consensus is that the ANC will score around 55 per cent.
Publication of opinion polls has been banned in the final three weeks of the campaign. The last one gave the ANC around 63 per cent, but polling in South Africa is an even more dubious science than usual: 70 per cent of electors have never voted before, and two thirds of black voters are illiterate.
Using their own formulas, two of South Africa's foremost political analysts have come up with the following forecasts:
Professor Lawrence Schlemmer: ANC 53-57 per cent; National Party 26-30; Inkatha 6-8; Freedom Front 4; Democratic Party 4. Professor Herman Gilliomee: ANC 56- 60 per cent; NP 23-27; IFP 7- 10; DP 4-6; FF 4.
- 1 Reader dilemma: 'My boyfriend jokes about putting photos of us having sex on Facebook'
- 2 Kenya President Uhuru Kenyatta clashes with President Obama on LGBT equality: ‘Gay rights is really a non-issue’
- 3 37-year-old black woman found dead in police custody
- 4 Kanye West praises Caitlyn Jenner on I Am Cait: 'You couldn't have been up against more'
- 5 Five-year-old boy forced classmate to simulate oral sex at primary school, claims mother
Mystery over deaths of 3,000 Napoleonic soldiers in mass grave has been solved
Global Peace Index: Ukraine tops list of countries with the worst relations with neighbours
Labour leadership: New poll shows party is now even 'less electable' than under Ed Miliband
Rolling Stones guitarist Keith Richards, 71, still enjoys 'an early morning joint' for breakfast
Denmark bans kosher and halal slaughter as minister says ‘animal rights come before religion’
The 9 charts that show the 'left-wing' policies of Jeremy Corbyn the public actually agrees with
Labour leadership contender Jeremy Corbyn says 'we can learn a great deal from Karl Marx'
The last thing Labour needs is a leader like Jeremy Corbyn who people want to vote for
What the Labour party could look like under Jeremy Corbyn
I am the Jeremy Corbyn supporter that many will tell you doesn't exist
Public anger after French sunbather beaten up by gang for wearing a bikini in Reims park
£20000 - £50000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This company provides actionabl...
Negotiable depending on experience, plus benefits: Guru Careers: We are seekin...
£16000 - £24000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This is an exciting opportunity...
Competitive: Guru Careers: We are seeking Account Managers to join a Digital C...