The US Presidential Elections: Clinton slips but still holds commanding lead

WASHINGTON - One week away from the presidential election, Bill Clinton's state-by-state advantage over George Bush has slipped somewhat, but the Democrat retains a solid or substantial lead in just enough states to enter the White House, writes John Lichfield.

The post-debate surge by the independent billionaire candidate, Ross Perot, has obliterated Governor Clinton's lead in four key states: New Jersey, Ohio, Colorado and New Mexico. In two other states, Michigan and Oregon, Mr Clinton's lead has been eroded but remains healthy. In Pennsylvania and Iowa, the Democrat has actually increased his advantage over the President.

All in all, the Independent's fourth map of the US electoral battleground continues to show a commanding position for Governor Clinton. He now leads in 22 states and the District of Columbia, worth 280 votes in the electoral college, 10 more than he needs to be President.

The map, based on published state-by-state polls and internal campaign tracking polls taken over the weekend, shows President Bush leading in only 15 states worth 98 votes in the electoral college. Thirteen states are too close to call.

Mr Perot leads in no states but is reported to be doing well in Texas, his home state, which was leaning towards Mr Bush and is now once again a toss-up. The billionaire is actually threatening to overtake Mr Bush in Colorado.

But both Republican and Democratic campaign officials report that, nationwide, the Perot surge peaked late last week at about 18 to 20 per cent. Over the weekend, according to the latest tracking polls, the Perot vote began to flatten out and even tail off. A senior Democratic polling analyst said yesterday that the Clinton tracking polls, which had fallen to a 7 to 8 per cent lead, now showed the Arkansas Governor with a 10- point lead once again.

'I think we've seen the worst of Perot,' said Mark Bohannon, head of the Democrats' Victory 92 polling group. 'We're cautiously optimistic. Bush's electoral college figures continue to be disastrous. It's not over yet but we're happy with where we are.'

Republican campaign officials remain heartened by the tightening of the polls. They say that votes 'shaken loose from Clinton' by Mr Perot may now emigrate back to the President, not to the Democrats.

Up to 20 per cent of all American voters are reckoned to make their final decision in the last 24 hours. Republicans are counting on tens of thousands of these swing voters making a gut decision at the last moment that they do not trust Governor Clinton.

Start your day with The Independent, sign up for daily news emails
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
ebooks
ebooksA special investigation by Andy McSmith
Arts and Entertainment
Larry David and Rosie Perez in ‘Fish in the Dark’
theatreReview: Had Fish in the Dark been penned by a civilian it would have barely got a reading, let alone £10m advance sales
News
Details of the self-cleaning coating were published last night in the journal Science
science
News
Approved Food sell products past their sell-by dates at discounted prices
i100
News
Life-changing: Simone de Beauvoir in 1947, two years before she wrote 'The Second Sex', credited as the starting point of second wave feminism
peopleHer seminal feminist polemic, The Second Sex, has been published in short-form to mark International Women's Day
News
i100
Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

Recruitment Genius: Sales Manager - £70,000 OTE

£35000 - £70000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: A Sales Manager (Vice President...

Recruitment Genius: Digital Marketing Executive

£18000 - £20000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: A Digital Marketing Executive i...

Recruitment Genius: Finance Assistant / Credit Controller

£16000 - £18000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: They are an award-winning digit...

Ashdown Group: Senior VMware Platform Engineer - VMware / SAN / Tier3 DC

£45000 - £55000 per annum + benefits: Ashdown Group: Senior VMware Platform En...

Day In a Page

Homeless Veterans campaign: Donations hit record-breaking £1m target after £300,000 gift from Lloyds Bank

Homeless Veterans campaign

Donations hit record-breaking £1m target after huge gift from Lloyds Bank
Flight MH370 a year on: Lost without a trace – but the search goes on

Lost without a trace

But, a year on, the search continues for Flight MH370
Germany's spymasters left red-faced after thieves break into brand new secret service HQ and steal taps

Germany's spy HQ springs a leak

Thieves break into new €1.5bn complex... to steal taps
International Women's Day 2015: Celebrating the whirlwind wit of Simone de Beauvoir

Whirlwind wit of Simone de Beauvoir

Simone de Beauvoir's seminal feminist polemic, 'The Second Sex', has been published in short-form for International Women's Day
Mark Zuckerberg’s hiring policy might suit him – but it wouldn’t work for me

Mark Zuckerberg’s hiring policy might suit him – but it wouldn’t work for me

Why would I want to employ someone I’d be happy to have as my boss, asks Simon Kelner
Confessions of a planespotter: With three Britons under arrest in the UAE, the perils have never been more apparent

Confessions of a planespotter

With three Britons under arrest in the UAE, the perils have never been more apparent. Sam Masters explains the appeal
Russia's gulag museum 'makes no mention' of Stalin's atrocities

Russia's gulag museum

Ministry of Culture-run site 'makes no mention' of Stalin's atrocities
The big fresh food con: Alarming truth behind the chocolate muffin that won't decay

The big fresh food con

Joanna Blythman reveals the alarming truth behind the chocolate muffin that won't decay
Virginia Ironside was my landlady: What is it like to live with an agony aunt on call 24/7?

Virginia Ironside was my landlady

Tim Willis reveals what it's like to live with an agony aunt on call 24/7
Paris Fashion Week 2015: The wit and wisdom of Manish Arora's exercise in high camp

Paris Fashion Week 2015

The wit and wisdom of Manish Arora's exercise in high camp
8 best workout DVDs

8 best workout DVDs

If your 'New Year new you' regime hasn’t lasted beyond February, why not try working out from home?
Paul Scholes column: I don't believe Jonny Evans was spitting at Papiss Cissé. It was a reflex. But what the Newcastle striker did next was horrible

Paul Scholes column

I don't believe Evans was spitting at Cissé. It was a reflex. But what the Newcastle striker did next was horrible
Miguel Layun interview: From the Azteca to Vicarage Road with a million followers

From the Azteca to Vicarage Road with a million followers

Miguel Layun is a star in Mexico where he was criticised for leaving to join Watford. But he says he sees the bigger picture
Frank Warren column: Amir Khan ready to meet winner of Floyd Mayweather v Manny Pacquiao

Khan ready to meet winner of Mayweather v Pacquiao

The Bolton fighter is unlikely to take on Kell Brook with two superstar opponents on the horizon, says Frank Warren
War with Isis: Iraq's government fights to win back Tikrit from militants - but then what?

Baghdad fights to win back Tikrit from Isis – but then what?

Patrick Cockburn reports from Kirkuk on a conflict which sectarianism has made intractable