Bruce Anderson: It's not policies that the Tories need, but a bit of gravitas

The Leader of the Opposition is rather like a jockey in the Grand National. He takes a daunting fence, clears it and is delighted to find that he is still on his horse. But there is no time to relax. No sooner has he survived one fence than another one is galloping towards him. I am beginning to lose count of the number of times Mr Cameron has made the most important speech of his life. The next one is due on Wednesday.

Over the past few days, the Tories' poll lead has halved. Many voters are not persuaded that the banking crisis was made in Downing Street. Even before the recent dramas, the poll evidence suggested that some of the public wondered if David Cameron had enough substance. That question is now even more salient.

Mr Cameron takes a Kipling-esque attitude to opinion polls. Whether they indicate a triumph or a disaster, they can quickly turn into impostors. He was astonishingly unperturbed a year ago, when the polls indicated that he might soon have a brilliant future behind him. There was no complacency a fortnight ago, when Gordon Brown was looking like crumbs of burnt toast. There is certainly no panic now. But there is an awareness of a vital task.

This week, the Tory leader has to sound prime ministerial. He must convince worried viewers that in the difficult period ahead, they can trust him and his party. Last year, voters were in a mood to indulge youth and hope. Now, people are anxious about their jobs. The problems of the world economy overshadow every living-room in the land. This is a moment for seriousness.

Enlivened, of course, by a bit of knocking copy, David Cameron will try to persuade the electorate that the man whose fingerprints are all over the crisis is not the man to solve it. But negativity is not enough. The Cameron speech can only succeed if he leaves positive impressions of Tory policy. Although this will require some detail, that is not enough. The voters will not make their judgements on the basis of Mr Cameron's plans to reform bank regulation. Body language is the crucial factor.

That is not as frivolous as it might sound. Most television watchers do not follow an argument in detail. For a start, they are not competent to do so. They have also grown accustomed to treating the telly as background noise. But sometimes the verbal musak catches their attention. Then, if a politician is speaking, they ask themselves whether this is a decent and trustworthy person.

On that, policy specifics are of little help. If they were, the Liberals would have done much better for much longer. The charge is often made that the Liberals have no policies. That is the most unfair allegation in British politics. Any Liberal manifesto will overflow with policies, on everything from aqualung diving to zither playing – and in enough detail to anaesthetise even the most fanatical anoraked activist.

Yet most voters persist in believing that Liberals have no policies, and in a way they are right. The plethora of policy verbiage cannot conceal the absence of intellectual and moral depth: the absence of a world-view and a political compass.

David Cameron has all of those, but in projecting the fact, he encounters two prejudices, based on age and class. On television, he looks boyish; his face still lacks the etched lines of gravitas (one suspects that the stressful air of No 10 will rapidly rectify that). Then there is that four-letter word, Eton. Two recent commanders of the SAS were at Mr Cameron's old school. Etonians usually know how to be charming. But they rarely lack reserves of steel. Yet the myth persists that the average Etonian resembles those alumni of the Twenties, Bertie Wooster and Gussie Fink-Nottle. This has still not been completely refuted by Boris Johnson, despite a good speech yesterday.

Nor by George Osborne, who is often, albeit incorrectly, accused of being an Old Etonian. Mr Osborne also looks boyish, which is hardly his fault. But despite his youthful appearance, he has had a succession of tough assignments, since the days when he spent his political novitiate as Douglas Hogg's political advisor – in the era of BSE. That was the first time I met him. It was hard not to be impressed by the aplomb with which he batted on a glass wicket.

We should also remember that when Mr Osborne became shadow Chancellor, the great fist was still in full clunk; Gordon Brown had never been bested by his various Tory shadows. While it would be an exaggeration to claim that George Osborne proved to be a successful matador, he was a pretty useful picador, landing a lot of darts in the bull's shoulders. Mr Brown's inability to toss and gore Mr Osborne contributed to the decline in his political standing which almost disrupted the planned coronation in the early summer of 2007.

Throughout the first couple of years of the Cameron leadership, a number of senior Tories were unhappy about George Osborne. They did not doubt his ability. They were happy to concede that he was a politician of great promise. But they wondered whether he seemed weighty enough to impress the voters. They thought that William Hague's Yorkshire broadcloth would have been a better complement to David Cameron's silken Etonianism. Much as he admires Mr Hague, Mr Cameron appeared to see no need for such a complement. He would never entertain criticisms of Mr Osborne, and is unlikely to change his mind now.

Last year, George Osborne had a thundering success. His plans to reduce inheritance tax not only delighted the Tory audience, too long denied one of its favourite dishes, tax cuts. It was also popular in the country, which unnerved Gordon Brown and may have contributed to the postponement of the election. If so, Mr Osborne is entitled to all the gratitude which Mr Cameron has shown him.

Today, Mr Osborne will be assessed by an audience which may be demoralised, but retains its critical faculties: the financial markets. He will announce plans for a new regulatory system, with the aim of avoiding future crises without encumbering the City's wealth-creating drive.

It is no easy task, especially as everything had to be done in a hurry, against a background of constant turmoil and turbulence. But George Osborne seems confident, although this year he is not expecting outbreaks of joy. These are not joyous times.

In his main speech, David Cameron will range more widely. We can expect forceful arguments on the theme of the broken society. Mr Cameron is well aware that the best-planned premiership is always in danger of being beset by events. Even so, he has already decided how he would like to be remembered: as a social reformer. That is a subject which moves him to passion. It would be surprising if this were not expressed in the speech.

These are nervous hours, for speech-writers and speech-deliverers. But David Cameron and his team understand language. They can rise to an occasion. On Wednesday, the Tory leader will give his best speech yet.

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