Bruce Anderson: Obama's problem remains that he's not American enough

In demographic terms, Senator Biden is a sensible choice. In selecting him, Barack Obama is trying to compensate for his own two principal vulnerabilities: youthful inexperience, and outsiderhood. No one could call Joe Biden inexperienced. He seems to have been around Washington for ever. After all, he was planning a Presidential bid 20 years ago. He has the CV of a wise old pol who could play Lyndon Johnson to Barack Obama's JFK.

Mr Biden is also rooted in middle America, where Mr Obama has three big negatives. The first is colour, which is still a handicap in a lot of the red states – in the United States red is a conservative pigment – where they do not warm to Alex Haley-style Roots. Second, he is the wrong sort of black with links to the Islamic world. He does not come across as rooted in America, his third problem. It might seem a cruel paradox when America's first black presidential candidate is depicted as a Harvard-educated elite snob; politics is often cruel.

In Europe, Mr Obama attracts enthusiastic support from those who do not like America as it is and want a radically new type of US administration. That was noticed back home, which is why Mr Obama's trip did not deliver a sustained popularity boost. A lot of Americans suspect, especially as regards the French, that many Europeans who say that they are anti-Bush are really anti-American, tout court.

This feeds into the culture wars which have been such an important factor in recent American elections. They started in the Sixties, as is admirably documented in Rick Perlstein's recent Nixonland. In most advanced countries, the new sexual mores associated with the late 1960s aroused some political controversy. But in America, sexual liberation coincided with the Vietnam War and with widespread rioting in black inner-city areas. This raised the disputes over faith, colour and nationhood to an intensity which has never subsided. That helps to explain something which puzzles many Europeans: while a lot of the poorest white Americans vote Republican, a surprisingly high proportion of multi-millionaires are Democrats.

Partly because they so rarely meet and can therefore indulge themselves in caricature, Americans on opposite sides of the cultural conflict often dislike one another: Fox News versus most Hollywood movies. In the latter, it is only necessary for a Manhattan liberal vacationing in the Deep South to make the hideous mistake of turning a few miles off a federal highway before discovering that the hills are alive with the sound of gunfire and that all the hillbillies are religious maniacs. When they are not forming militias, worshipping God or committing incest, they are itching to inflict unspeakable atrocities upon any captured Pinko.

The culture wars could be bad news for Barack Obama and, so far, he has shown a propensity to blunder into cultural traps. In his foolish comments about the unfortunates who become psychologically dependent on God and guns, he seemed to be expressing disdain for much of the American mainstream, and it is not easy for him to deploy his own religiosity. The Pastor whose church he attended for many years became notorious for exclaiming: "God damn America." No one believes that this was an isolated utterance. If they were honest, many of Mr Obama's ardent supporters would admit to a lot of sympathy for that Pastor. If their candidate comes to be seen as an agent of anti-Americanism, he will lose.

That is why Joe Biden is important. No one could accuse him of anti-Americanism. Mr Biden is a tribal New Deal Democrat because he wants a walk-tall America and a better deal for the little guy. Between now and 4 November, Mr Biden will be let loose on the little guys in the key states, especially Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania. There, lots of American middle-class families are hurting. Senator Biden's task will be to focus their minds on economic pain, not on cultural anxiety. That will be the single most important battle of the campaign.

But Joe Biden has drawbacks. A likeable, easy-going fellow, he has the type of tongue which often goes with those characteristics. He cannot stop talking and he often talks himself into trouble – so it is appropriate that he ran into difficulty for plagiarising Neil Kinnock. Despite long years of politics, Senator Biden lacks verbal cunning.

There was an instance of this recently, when he described Senator Obama as articulate and clean. Articulate: we hold that truth to be self-evident – but combine it with clean, in the racially hyper-sensitive US? There were instant allegations that Mr Biden was really saying "articulate and clean – unlike the other blacks". This is unlikely to be Senator Biden's last mis-speak. The basic problem is that his intellect is neither the equal of his volubility nor of his confidence. Over the years, although he has often been spoken of as a presidential candidate, his chances have never been taken that seriously outside his own household. It is a bit late for him to raise his game.

The presidential game remains tantalisingly open, though we can draw one conclusion. The more the electorate concentrates on issues rather than candidates, the better for the Democrats. If enough voters decide that as the country is in a mess it is time for a change, Mr Obama will win. But in presidential elections, personalities usually predominate, and when that happens, Mr McCain gains. If enough voters decide that as the country is in a mess and the world is a dangerous place, this is no time to take a leap in the dark, John McCain will win.

Everything hangs on the two principals' performance over the next 10 weeks. If Senator McCain comes over as old, curmudgeonly and out of touch, he has had it. If Senator Obama comes across as callow, left-wing and out of touch, he will be toast.

We can be certain of one point. On both sides, the minders will be doing their uttermost to ensure that their candidate stays on message.

Fortunately for the health of democracy, however, the minders never wholly prevail. The late Dick Scammon, a formidable political analyst, used to say that: "Despite the handlers' best efforts, there are always moments of political nakedness during a campaign, when the voters see the candidates as they really are. Those moments can determine the outcome."

They have not happened yet, so it is time for someone to invent a new cliche to replace "too close to call", which is likely to become even more shop-soiled over the next few weeks. But at present, the Democrats ought to be worried. Their man has had a tremendous amount of exposure recently, almost always on his own terms, so he ought to be further ahead. He is in top gear; John McCain has not yet reached for the accelerator. As a result, the Republicans are much more optimistic than they expected to be this time last year.

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