Donald Macintyre: Peter must remain careful

As a character in the soap opera of British politics, Peter Mandelson is less of a box-office sensation than he once was. But even if that were not the case, his almost casual announcement yesterday that he would not seek a second term as EU trade commissioner is, on one level, not that surprising.

His job is arguably at once the best in the Commission - because it is focused on a subject in which the Commission has real clout - and the most gruelling in terms of responsibility, not to mention travel. That makes a strong case for deciding that neither staying put nor having an alternative portfolio - if, and it's a very big if, either was available - is that attractive. Now 53, moreover, Mr Mandelson might be in a position to use his experience to find a lucrative and challenging private-sector job in two years. It may be that much harder at 61.

That said, it is almost impossible to examine his remarks yesterday other than through the prism of his chronically dysfunctional, if complex, relationship with Gordon Brown. Since the summer of 1994, the Brown-Mandelson side of the triangle of which Mandelson was the junior partner and which has been at different times one of the most creative and destructive in British political history, was ruptured.

Mr Mandelson's digs yesterday suggesting that Mr Brown may not be a sufficiently committed European are of a piece with this. They are also undermined by the highly questionable implication that Tony Blair, given his identification with US foreign policy, has succeeded in his aspiration of being, as Mr Mandelson himself once put it, the "most pro-European British Prime Minister since Edward Heath".

Mr Mandelson no doubt wants to indicate to Mr Brown that he will not be trying to ingratiate himself in order to keep his job, and that he will maintain his independence. But he needs to be careful. Independence in a European commissioner is a fine thing, but the delicate dynamics of Mr Mandelson's position are illustrated by an interesting point.

In other circumstances, announcing you are going in two years might look like turning yourself into a lame duck. The truth is that some of Mr Mandelson's authority within the Commission is already threatened by the departure of Mr Blair.

And that speaks for trying to develop a working relationship with the man who, after all, Mr Mandelson once supported over Mr Blair as Prime Minister, and who he has since publicly insisted he wanted to succeed Mr Blair.

Each man no doubt blames the other for the gruesome turn their once close friendship has taken in the past 13 years. But many repeats of yesterday's performance and Mr Mandelson will have an even harder job claiming the fault is all on the other side.

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