Hamish McRae on The Independent

Hamish McRae: Greece is being screwed down so Sarkozy can meet his deadline

08 February 2012 12:00 AM

The motive and timing of Angela Merkel's support for the French president are interesting

Hamish McRae: The Greeks will not be the last people to lose control of their fiscal policy

01 February 2012 12:00 AM

Governments elected for four years must run fiscal policies sustainable for 40

Hamish McRae: The gloom is overdone but this is a blow to the recovery

26 January 2012 12:00 AM

It is important to balance scepticism with a realism that this is disappointing

Hamish McRae: In a sombre year Davos worries about greater equality

25 January 2012 12:00 AM

Economics

Hamish McRae: Has a wind of recovery blown in from the East?

18 January 2012 12:00 AM

The Chinese tail is wagging the world economy dog – and that may be to our own advantage in the months to come. George Osborne is out there at the moment and has been able to announce that London will become the first overseas centre for trading in the renminbi. (For the uninitiated, the renminbi is the name of the currency, like sterling, whereas the yuan, like the pound, is the principal unit of account.)

Hamish McRae: Of course Scotland can stand on its own two feet. And here's how

14 January 2012 12:00 AM

Scotland's voters will be asked to make a political decision in its referendum on independence, but it will be a decision coloured inevitably by economics – or at least economic perceptions, for the long-term economic impact of independence is far from clear. But such is the nature of politics that economic arguments will be used by both sides to support their case.

Hamish McRae: Who would dare make confident predictions for 2012?

11 January 2012 12:00 AM

Since economists got things so wrong last year, what notice should we take of their predictions this year? Of course, economics is not just about forecasting, but that is its public face, and last year was a bit of a catastrophe. Look at the UK. We don't have final figures yet (and the figures are invariably revised) but it does look as though growth last year will turn out at or below 1 per cent, while inflation looks like being 4.7 per cent. I can't find a single mainstream forecaster that came in below 1 per cent, nor any that expected inflation at more than 4.5 per cent.

Hamish McRae: Ailing European businesses that are being rescued by Asian enterprise

21 December 2011 12:00 AM

We should celebrate that we have assets and skills attractive to global investors

Hamish McRae: Spending is the way to help the recovery take off

14 December 2011 12:00 AM

Just keep shopping – and not only to give a much-needed boost to the high street. One of the harsh truths that has become quite clear is that Britain will have to find ways of keeping demand up next year, as the eurozone slides back into recession.

The European Central Bank can pump in enough money to avert collapse

Hamish McRae: New fiscal deal offers hope but no guarantees

11 December 2011 12:00 AM

Economic View: It certainly brings austerity, but whether the EU agreement will be enough to save the single currency remains to be seen

Hamish McRae: On the streets of New York, I sense a recovery...

07 December 2011 12:00 AM

It is good sometimes to get out of Europe, and a short trip to New York reminded me that though the eurozone is a pretty big chunk of the world economy, the US is a somewhat larger one. While there is still a huge personal debt overhang in the States and the banking system remains under the cosh, there are several signs of life a-stirring in the real economy that show through both in the stats and in the streets.

Hamish McRae: Osborne can say what he likes, but this crisis is beyond his control

30 November 2011 12:00 AM

The slog ahead has become longer. We live in a world where the mathematics of public finances dominates everything and where the scope for politicians to do anything other than press on cutting their budget deficits is just about zero.

Hamish McRae: Don't question the markets' logic. Be grateful for it

23 November 2011 12:00 AM

The world is unfair and the sovereign bond markets are most certainly so. Take the rate for 10-year debt on the markets yesterday. Here in the UK our government could borrow at just under 2.2 per cent. France, which has a smaller deficit, though slightly higher debt levels, would have to pay more than 3.5 per cent. Germany, with an even smaller deficit but debts still larger than the UK, can borrow at 1.9 per cent. And the US, which has the highest deficit of any major country in the world and, as we have seen this week, an utter inability to agree on how to cut it, can borrow at 1.95 per cent. All these countries have the same top credit rating, AAA (though the US lost its rating from one of the three agencies), yet the rates they are charged are quite different. Rum, isn't it?

Hamish McRae: Now it's not just a two-speed Europe, but three speeds or more

16 November 2011 12:00 AM

Germany and the UK are in the fast lane, France in the middle lane, and then Spain

Hamish McRae: This is how long I reckon the euro will last

09 November 2011 12:00 AM

It is time to accept that the eurozone crisis may end with an extreme outcome. On the one hand, it is possible that European leaders will get a grip on the region's sovereign debts and that in a couple of years' time the crisis will be "under control, if not overcome". Those words come from Jürgen Stark, the German board member of the European Central Bank and, in effect, its chief economist. On the other hand, it is possible that the eurozone will have broken up by Easter.