Hamish McRae: There are things only the state can do
One should see the partial nationalisation of the banks as part of a historic continuum
Wednesday, 15 October 2008
It is awesome, isn't it, to see how powerful the world's financial authorities are when they act together? For some weeks the markets have been bitching that the governments and central banks did not grasp the gravity of the financial situation; that their response was piecemeal and tardy.
It was a reaction born of fear, a fear that showed through most obviously in the collapse of the value of shares worldwide but more insidiously in the squeeze on bank lending. Home buyers in Britain are in much the same position as the restaurant owner in Manhattan that a friend told me about just yesterday. Our flow of new mortgages has virtually dried up while his local Italian restaurant was being refused credit.
Some sort of corner now does seem to be turned. Those of us thought that three or four weeks ago were proved wrong. It took much, much more firepower to rebuild confidence than those initial (and maybe not too well aimed) salvoes from the different governments. The confidence is fragile still. But the markets have learnt what they should have known all along. It is not within the power of national governments, even acting together, to prevent a world economic downturn. But what they can do is prevent an international banking collapse, a catastrophe that would have both deepened the downturn and made the recovery from it virtually impossible. This is not the 1930s.
But it was governments that had to do it. We live in a world where the failures of government are pretty obvious. We read all the time about their inefficiencies and, in Britain. we have had a huge increase in government spending alongside falling productivity in the public sector. Governments are seen as slow-moving bureaucracies, having to build support before they push a policy into action – a contrast to the nimble, effective private sector. Co-operate internationally on major issues? No one thought it possible, which of course was one of the reasons why the markets were so spooked.
Well, it hasn't been like that in the past few days. Governments have shown themselves to be swift and effective and they really deserve credit for that. Sure, the near-collapse of the world banking system was in part a failure of regulation and of monetary policy. But the primary failure was in the private sector and it is government that has saved it.
That is going to change things. It is going to redefine the relationship between government and finance in the years ahead, certainly for a decade, maybe a generation. It is far too early to see any detail but we can catch a feeling for what might change.
If you look at what monetary authorities have done so far there are really two main elements. One has been for central banks to flood the world with liquidity, to lend to the banking system without limit. The other has been to offer partial nationalisation to banks if they need it. In the first the central banks have been carrying out their traditional role, dating back to the 19th century, of being lender at last resort to the banking system. In the second the governments have taken on a newer, but not unprecedented role of being investor at last resort in individual banks.
The first is textbook stuff. Because banks borrow short-term but make long-term loans, there has to be some mechanism to enable them to repay depositors in extreme situations. It is just that, this time, the lender-at-last-resort role had to be on a global scale.
The second has happened before when governments have felt that national interest requires them to invest in commercial enterprises and when other investors did not want to do so. This happened in a dogmatic way with nationalisation and that model clearly does not work. It worked particularly badly when the company being taken over was in some structural trouble, such as British Leyland. But there are much more encouraging examples going back 150 years and more: the government investment in the Suez Canal, or in BP. We tend to forget now that the government once had effective control of the company that, more than any other, discovered the North Sea oilfields.
So one should see the partial nationalisation of British banks as part of a continuum; it is radical but it is not absolutely unprecedented. What is clever is the optional element – we are there if you need capital but if you don't that is fine too – and that now seems to be a model for the rest of the world. It is not as important an intellectual export as privatisation itself, but it is an idea initiated here that will become a new norm in the future.
Government intervention quite rightly comes at a price. The price for having a central bank as lender at last resort is banking regulation. As for the newer investment in the banks, if public funds are invested then the public have to have an influence over how that investment is managed. That is not an issue. The old BP relationship where the government was in ultimate control but did not inhibit the commercial drive of the company worked very well.
That is all straightforward enough, or at least it should be. What is harder to see is how governments will assert their authority on a global scale. Taxpayers around the world have a right to be pretty angry at having to stump up for bankers' errors, even if they end up getting out at a profit. But they have even more reason to be angry if governments don't take steps to try to ensure that this does not happen again.
So there will be a rethinking of the relationship between the state and the world of finance. It has to be done internationally because, if there is one thing we have learnt over the past few months, it is that a problem that occurs in one country will end up in another. This is an interdependent world.
There are two broad paths. One would be to see if there is a case for some kind of new monetary commission that would oversee changes in bank accounting, supervision of derivative development, co-ordination of countries' monetary policy and so on. The other (which seems to me more sensible) would be to look in detail at what has gone wrong and make a large number of tweaks to the system. These would include a different system of bond rating, changes to bank accounting and so on.
That is all for the future. Meanwhile let's just be aware that, when push comes to shove, there are some things that only governments can do. On this occasion they seem to have done it.
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Comments
15 Comments
"Nimble effective private sector"? I read once ( in "When Corporations Rule the World" ) that 6 of the top 10 corporations would be bankrupt if it were not for continual feeds of government subsidies handed out to them. It is a reality, Hamish, that big business is looked after by governments whilst small businesses are not afforded the same perks through various legislations. Check out how Wal Mart gets away with treating and paying their serfs. It's time to wake up, buddy, from your delusional corporate idolizing.
Posted by Restaurateur | 15.10.08, 23:26 GMT
There are things only the state can do. But stopping the incoming economic tsunami is not one of them. Interest rates will be reduced to zero - totally ineffective since we will have reached the liquidity trip where no amount of monetary tinkering will make the slightest difference. What lower interest rates might achieve, however, is an increase in the inflation rate - a rate already accelerating. Next futile gesture: active fiscal policy. That is to say throwing good money after bad with public works programmes. Both were tried in Japan - with little effect - during the long downturn which began in 1989.
The deflationary collapse is almost upon us and it will eventually purge the system of bad debts, misallocation of reserouces, bad investments and non-jobs. Then after the necessary liquidations, we might start thinking about a policy for growth. What we cannot do is start the bubble fiasco up again, as the clamour for interest rate cuts and tax cuts, would surely deliver.
Posted by Frank | 15.10.08, 17:49 GMT
Hey everything is going to plan. Rafts of lolly handed out, no questions asked. Perhaps it's not realised but the dab hand of T Blair is behind all this. Isn't he some highly paid advisor to a large US banking concern. For sure Brown has taken 'advice' through his new Lord Mandy of never ever land! He in turn has a direct line to TB. Interesting how the US tax payer is going to get shares in some of the banks that actually own the Federal Reserve, Goldmine Stax for instance. Does this mean that for the first time in decades they'll get a chance to look under the veil through their board members? Mmm they might even get a chance to change a few things, but don't hold your breath, the board member will be appointed by.... guess who! The same bunch that appointed Poulson who was previously a CEO of yep Goldman Sacs. Nice work if you can get it. Hank is obviously running a bit short, down to his last 700 million I read! Ho hum lots to do yet.
Posted by Alan | 15.10.08, 17:45 GMT
thats the spirit hamish.. keep up that fantastic ability of yours to see a shaft of light in the abyss everyone else is staring into, i'm sure it will help...
Posted by daoboxer | 15.10.08, 14:12 GMT
Recent events have made a powerful argument for a return to the mixed economy. There are some activities which are best left to private organisations, some to public organisations, and few cases where joint ventures work well.
The unregulated, privatise everything world of the neo-liberal economists was as inflexible and illogical as the old Clause 4 socialists nationalisation agenda. We can and must do better.
Posted by David | 15.10.08, 13:22 GMT
"nimble, effective private sector"
Would this be the same nimble, effective private sector that has reduced Britain's railways to an overcrowded, overpriced, late-running shambles? No, I didn't think so.
Posted by George Hale | 15.10.08, 12:16 GMT
whatever happens its doomed to failure. our inflation rate is approx 16% now. what about when people realise how much the pound is actually worth against its asset value. do any of you think the average pensioner for example will be exempt from this crisis. we will be finding them on a daily basis frozen solid and starving in their own homes within the next 12 months.
we have just seen the final coup de grace by the elite bankers. a small group of interbred families that own even more after this proposterous bailout. they control all our destinies but hopefully once the people wake up the situation can be reversed otherwise we should all fear for our children because their lives will not be worth living under this ever expanding totalitarian state we used to call GREAT britain.
Posted by mike bingham | 15.10.08, 12:10 GMT
"On this occasion they seem to have done it."
It's surely too early to say. The results of the central banks actions have yet to be seen. It seems to me there are two possiblities 1) the measures don't work and the so called 'credit cruch' continues or 2) they do work and all this so called 'liquidity' (created from thin air) fuels another bubble, just as Greenspan fuelled the housing bubble when he threw easy money around to mitigate the collapse of the dot-com bubble. The devil will have his due - it's only a question of what that due will be.
Posted by retsdon | 15.10.08, 10:38 GMT
because the state has unlimited funds available provided by the bank of england but guaranteed by the tax payers.but i wonder when hamish mc rae is going to write about the very nature of the bank of england and shed some light on it as a private bank and its secret share holders? i wonder when he is going to enlighten us the public about the bank of england and its activities and its interests which are 180 degrees opposite to the country´s?
i say abolish the bank of england.
Posted by ebbi | 15.10.08, 10:02 GMT
The credit crisis has shown that only the state can guarantee the value of our money. Banks cannot, their credit is merely a promise for money and absurdly they promise it to more than one customer at a time. When a runs occur, the state has to intervene.
The state should establish its own run-free bank to outcompete its private rivals by phasing out support for them. If this popular monopoly limited its operations to current accounts, it would act as a national money service, guaranteeing savings, stabilizing markets and leaving private banks free to concentrate on investment.
Posted by Mark | 15.10.08, 09:00 GMT
15 Comments