John Lichfield: Sarkozy has a mandate for unity but a capacity to divide

Nicolas Sarkozy has promised to hit the ground running when he takes over as President on 16 May. The great unknown is which of the "Sarkozy twins" will occupy the Elysée Palace. Will it be the accommodating, original thinker who started the campaign? Or the hard-right populist who ended it? His programme of economic and social reform, including restrictions on trades union rights, will be challenged by the unions.

The left has convinced itself that M. Sarkozy is an "ultra-capitalist". It should be easy for the unions to mobilise their troops. Will M. Sarkozy - as he sometimes indicates - be ready to compromise? Or will he - as he sometimes warns - be eager for battle?

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The other great unknown is how the young people in the poor, multiracial suburbs will react to a Sarkozy presidency. Since M. Sarkozy referred to suburban youth gangs as racaille (scum) in October 2005, he has been a figure of hatred in many poor housing estates.

Any small incident of police violence in any poor suburb could re-ignite the riots of autumn 2005. How will M. Sarkozy - and, perhaps more importantly, the police - react to a direct, violent challenge to presidential authority? M. Sarkozy's economic programme bears some resemblance to the "Thatcher agenda" in Britain in the 1980s: tax cuts, trades union reform and a roll-back of the state bureaucracy. There, the resemblance ends.

Although he talks of "rupture with the past", he has not abandoned the traditional Gaullist belief in the importance of the state. He believes in identifying and supporting industrial "champions". He wants the EU to protect its industries against allegedly unfair competition from China and the developing world. He wants to move away from the independence of the European Central Bank and persuade other EU states to manage (ie push down) the exchange rate of the euro. In all these areas, he is likely to clash with other European governments and, especially, with Gordon Brown.

On domestic economic policies, M. Sarkozy is much closer to the free-market economic religion of Britain than previous French leaders. From his first day in office, he promises to organise four "conferences" on social and economic reform.

One will look at his plans to make employment laws less rigid, increasing workers' rights with years spent in one job. Another will examine his proposals to place conditions on long-term unemployment pay, but to improve state services for the jobless. A third will look at ways of reforming the 35-hour working week to allow more, and higher, paid overtime.

The last "conference" will examine restrictions on trades union rights. M. Sarkozy wants to impose ballots for strikes over eight-days long. He wants to force the unions to provide "minimum service" during transport strikes.

On taxation, he promises cuts of €15bn (£10.2bn) and that no taxpayer should have to pay more than 50 per cent of their income.