John Major: Iraq is not a natural democracy

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THE COMMON belief is that the coalition has an agenda to dismember Iraq and to control its oil. Nonsense though it is, it is a fear that will not be dispelled with words alone, which is why the actions of America and Britain will be scrutinised so carefully in the months ahead.

The common belief is that the coalition has an agenda to dismember Iraq and to control its oil. Nonsense though it is, it is a fear that will not be dispelled with words alone, which is why the actions of America and Britain will be scrutinised so carefully in the months ahead.

Whatever the immediate post-war arrangements for governing Iraq may be – probably a military governorship – it is desirable for the UN to be involved as swiftly as possible in any interim administration. Some sounding board for local opinion – perhaps a consultative council representing the main tribal interests – should also be put in place.

This will be uncomfortable and rancorous since the views of the Sunnis, Shias and Kurds are unlikely to be as one; but the effort must be made – and be seen to be made. It is important, too, that Arab opinion accepts beyond any doubt that the present territorial borders of Iraq are sacrosanct, and that the management and ownership of oil will remain in Iraqi hands.

The establishment of any longer-term government in Iraq is fraught with difficulty. Iraq is not a natural democracy. The depth of bitterness between Sunnis, Shias and Kurds is such that any "grand coalition" is improbable to the point of absurdity. Yet, unless military governorship or UN administration is to be lengthy, we must anticipate a legitimate government that may reflect the numerical dominance of the Shias, who make up over 60 per cent of the population.

Such a majority government would install a Shia Iraq beside a Shia Iran, which is an uncomfortable omen. Saudi Arabia is one of many countries that would look uneasily at the future if collaboration between these two countries were to become likely.