Michael Brown: Cameron will have to reshuffle his team too

Tories should not panic. Sadly, they probably will - but this is nevertheless as much a time of challenge and opportunity for David Cameron's party as it is for Labour. The Tories have not (yet) lost the next general election and there is no need for there to be a Tory collapse in morale simply because of Quentin Davies' defection or a possible run of bad polls. Gordon Brown's great promises of change on Wednesday left me with a distinct feeling of being under-whelmed once the cabinet appointments were announced yesterday.

Jack Straw, Geoff Hoon, Alistair Darling, Peter Hain and the others of the Blair generation are part of the same old merry-go-round. The appointments of the Miliband brothers plus Burnham, Balls and Cooper etc may well be justified. Fresh-faced, competent and new they may be. However, they don't look capable of striking undue fear among their senior political opponents. Miliband (David) may be exceptionally bright and young, but William Hague is more than his match. And I doubt that David Davis will be losing too much sleep over facing Jacqui Smith, his fourth Home Secretary.

And all the talk of a return to Cabinet government is misplaced. Cabinet government only means something if there are characters willing, able and strong enough to say "No, Prime Minister". And if the next 100 days are to be dominated by tedious announcements (worthy and justified though they may be) about cabinet sessions on the structure of Whitehall and the constitution I hardly think the regulars in the Dog and Duck in Cleethorpes will be very impressed.

This should provide a chance for the Tories to disabuse the public that we are about to enter a fresh era that will directly benefit the lives of normal voters. Of course it is far too early to predict the precise shape of government policies. But to Mr and Mrs Ordinary, I doubt they will notice much difference between the new government and that of Tony Blair. Mr Brown will no doubt be ruthless in using his big clunking fist against Mr Cameron, but the Tories have just as great an opportunity in the year ahead to strengthen their position provided they take a long cool look at the mistakes they've made in recent months. Quentin Davies may have crossed the floor for quixotic reasons and he is unlikely to be missed but his charge of a lack of substance will stick.

I am still no further forward in understanding what Cameron stands for today than I was 18 months ago. "Social responsibility" is his great rallying cry but somehow it is hardly going to set the juices running among the plain-speaking voters of Scunthorpe or Cleethorpes. Mr Cameron can no longer merely strike a series of poses.

Of course heneeds to re-shape his team - if only to reflect the new portfolios that Mr Brown has created. The extreme Cameroons would probably like to dispense with Hague, Davis and even Liam Fox. Certainly the High Priest of Tory modernisation, Michael Portillo, wrote a few days ago that he believes that Cameron has now surrendered to the Tory right and preyed in aid comments by Davis and Hague reassuring the Tory faithful that Cameron is, after all, still a Tory. In fact, it transpires that Hague and Davis were actually doing this only at the leader's request.

Cameron will obviously re-shape his team in the near future. He must find some way of enticing Ken Clarke into his front-bench team now that the call for a Europe referendum is surely only a case of going through the motions. There will not be a referendum and, for the sake of Tory unity, Cameron must hope that the new PM will not concede one.

The greatest Tory opportunity still lies with the economy and the prospects that higher interest rates will prevail for the remainder of this Parliament. They will cripple the average family. When this happens the question of tax will become as salient as in 1979. Lord Forsyth's tax commission should not have been summarily dismissed last autumn by the shadow chancellor, George Osborne, who should be moved and perhaps replaced by Mr Hague. Tories must recognise that tax and interest rates move votes in marginal constituencies just as much today as 30 years ago. My fear is that Mr Brown recognises this with a greater urgency than the Tories.

Perhaps now is the time for Cameron also to take up the mantle of collegiate government. His relentless use of the back-room boys and focus groups rather than his shadow cabinet is in danger of leading him into the same cul-de-sac as his hero, Mr Blair. Clarke, Hague and Davis are the best collective readers of the public mood and most likely to protect him from the clever brains of David Willetts et al who have caused unnecessary damage in the past two months.

mrbrown@talktalk.net

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