Michael Brown: I am a Tory, but I must admit I find myself seduced by the cut of Gordon Brown's jib

I sometimes wonder if "David Cameron's Conservatives" - as opposed to the Conservative Party - are actually now already actively preparing for defeat, rather than for victory, at the next general election. The petulant responses to recent criticisms suggest that the ground is already being secretly prepared for the blame game that might overshadow his party once the votes have been counted.

Attempts by the Cameroons to portray much of the Conservative Party as Mr Cameron's main enemy may once have seemed superficially attractive in the desire to show the leader as "modern" by comparison. But they are now doomed to backfire since the only guaranteed outcome will be to make the party look split and divided. Already "Tory disunity" has become one of the subplots of the recent series of polls.

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This seems, however, to be a misguided strategy to prepare the ground if things should go wrong next time. Cameroons are steeling themselves to blame defeat on those dreadful Thatcherite dinosaurs. If only they could have already killed off the Tory Party, along with many of its backbench MPs and the membership, all would now be well. But it was none of them who started the grammar school fiasco, imposed a by-election candidate in Ealing with only a nodding acquaintance with the party and politics, or who recommended Mr Cameron make a flying visit to Rwanda when flooding was the preoccupation of the rest of us.

Dismissing a nonentity like the former "A list" golden boy Ali Miraj was probably justified but the likes of Lord Kalms, Lord Saatchi and the Arriva transport boss, Sir Tom Cowie (who this week withdrew Tory funding because of Mr Cameron's "arrogant Old Etonian style of leadership") are in an altogether different category worthy of more diplomatic handling.

It is hard for any leader to publicly acknowledge errors but Mr Cameron might do well during the recess to reflect on why his stock has fallen in recent weeks through entirely avoidable self-inflicted wounds. They have contributed to the changed political terms of trade that must tempt Gordon Brown to give serious consideration to calling an election on either 18 or 25 October. Should this happen, there are less than seven weeks before the Prime Minister contemplates a visit to the Palace, with the possibility of a fourth Labour victory only 11 weeks away. At this rate the race for the next Tory leader could then be starting with the whole merry-go-round concluded by Christmas.

If anyone had imagined, on the eve of Mr Brown's elevation to the premiership, that within just six weeks, the new Prime Minister would be beset by terrorist bomb attempts, thousands of flooded householders, and that Tory Surrey would be victim to foot and mouth outbreaks - apparently unleashed by human error at the very facilities designed to prevent such disease - Mr Cameron should have been anticipating huge poll leads. Events are often the curse of most Prime Ministers. Mr Brown, however, looks like repeating Margaret Thatcher's ability to turn a potential disaster into electoral dividends. "Strength", "leadership" and "good in a crisis" will be the defining opinion poll and election issues if no clear fundamental divide on policy is at stake between the main parties.

Ironically, it is Mr Brown who now poses as a conservative leader. Middle aged, dark suited, (occasionally crumpled) crisp white shirt, always wearing a tie - Brown appears every inch a politician from the Tory era of the 1950s. By cancelling his holiday and striding around deepest "true blue" Tory Surrey with farmers on Monday, he subconsciously reached the very parts of the Tory Party Mr Cameron seems determined to reject or insult. Of course, events - especially where foot-and-mouth are concerned - which have so far been Mr Brown's doing, may yet also be his undoing. If the outbreaks are not contained, public opinion may change - although the foot-and-mouth fiasco of 2001 did not lose Labour votes in that year's election.

The terrible truth is that unless the Tory Party is in the DNA of voters who have been wedded to it since birth (a dwindling proportion of the electorate, bearing in mind the erosion of party loyalties) old-fashioned Tory attitudes based simply on the "cut of his jib" might best be served by this Jane Eyre "Mr Rochester" figure that Labour MP Frank Field suggested Mr Brown resembles. Those of us of a "certain age", now fast approaching our bus pass years, are dismissed by the Cameroons as Tories from the Thatcher dinosaur years. "We are not going back there," says Mr Cameron.

Mr Brown was born in the same year as me, and while my hand simply will not go anywhere except in the Tory box on the ballot paper, I nevertheless find myself seduced by the mere appearance of Gordon Brown. I will resist his blandishments - although it is becoming a hard fight - but others like me may not. He reinforces all this by reviewing the classification of cannabis and 24-hour drinking and by abandoning supercasinos. Mr Cameron may pose as the social liberal but it is the middle-aged, socially conservative Puritan, Mr Brown, who captures the sombre mood of today's middle class and middle aged.

So first, Mr Cameron, ditch the Lycra shorts and the cycling nonsense. Put the tie and jacket back on. Since image is supposed to be your thing it shouldn't be too difficult to start at least looking like a Prime Minister. Tell the munchkins who run your operations not to plan any more stunts. No more St George's flag on the back of the bike when England are playing in the World cup. No more daft painting and decorating exercises at the party conference when you got the pretty male MPs to appear paint-splattered in jeans and T-shirts doing up the local youth club. No more hugging hoodies. No more hugging huskies - at least not while Parliament is sitting and when your own constituency is under water. And if you really want to save Africa start with Zimbabwe. Somehow Mr Cameron always ends up in the wrong place at the wrong time while Mr Brown has the nous to know when not to desert the command post.

Most media observers have concluded that the die will be cast for "Cameron's Conservatives" by the end of the party conference season. Were Mr Brown to calculate his chances of winning an October election by making the announcement from the Labour conference rostrum when he addresses the faithful on 24 September, Mr Cameron might not even have the chance of showcasing his policies and his team at Blackpool.

That could, of course, be a blessing. And if Mr Brown were really cruel he could even announce an election time-table to permit a truncated Tory conference, complete with Tory mischief-making opportunities, thereby ensuring disarray becomes the opening line of the Tory campaign.

m.brown@independent.co.uk