Michael Brown: Time for Cameron to deliver thunder and lightning

As David Cameron puts the finishing touches to his speech to the Tory conference later today, he must decide whether his objective is to fire the opening shots in his election campaign – or alternatively whether to do his utmost to ensure that whatever he says will scare off any remaining thoughts Gordon Brown may have about calling a November election.

On the eve of their week in Blackpool, the Tories looked decidedly anaemic, but the anticipated "Tory wars" headlines that Labour imagined might be the backdrop to this conference have failed to materialise. A sense of self-discipline, brought on by the imminent threat of an election, has ensured that Mr Cameron will be given a hero's welcome this afternoon. We know, from two years ago, that he is capable of rallying the troops. And – provided he doesn't offer a vacuous call for sunshine – but gives instead a thunder and lightning of a speech, he may yet give Mr Brown pause for thought before considering an appointment with the Queen next week.

Related articles

• Tories use green taxes to promote marriage
• Davis promises hard line on immigration and crime
• Deborah Orr: The criminal justice system is in a mess. And Labour's panic over it isn't helping
• Hague condemns 'political deceit' of new EU treaty
• Conference diary
• Cameron tells Tories: 'We will fight - Britain will win'

If, however, Mr Brown were to stand his troops down, perhaps as a consequence of a Tory revival in the next batch of polls later this week, the Tories will have scored a massive tactical and strategic advantage. Expect the political fur to fly, with accusations that the Prime Minister is a ditherer and a man of indecision who is – to borrow from the Thatcher lexicon – "frit". The Prime Minister will try to shrug off such charges but the damage to his honeymoon will have been done. Thus, the risk may now be greater to Mr Brown if he does not call the election – expectations of which are now so great that he may find it impossible anyway to return the genie to the bottle.

But Mr Brown is nevertheless forcing the Tories to reveal poker cards, perhaps before they intended. The inheritance tax and stamp duty proposals are good red meat that will give heart to the tax cutters. But those of us who believe the economy requires government spending to be reduced, will be concerned to ensure that the methods by which the money will be found to pay for these proposals actually stack up. Be prepared for a war of Jennifer's ear proportions as Labour tears into George Osborne's arithmetic regarding the revenue likely to be raised by a flat tax of £25,000 on "non doms" – which the Treasury believes will leave a black hole of £2bn.

Credibility and trust will be the central argument when the Tory conference ends today. No doubt Mr Cameron will want to reveal a further card or two, leaving his hand upturned ahead of the comprehensive spending review that must surely be announced when Parliament resumes on Monday, in advance of a possible dissolution later next week. Mr Osborne has rightly, if belatedly, raised concerns following the Northern Rock debacle that spending and borrowing is out of control. That being so, now is not the moment to give a blank cheque to underwrite whatever Alistair Darling may have up his sleeve to trump the Tories. Such a free hand for the Chancellor, while giving the Tories space to match expenditure increases on health and education, may enable Mr Darling to buy votes elsewhere.

While the Tories do not yet appear to have that simple "Prescott pledge card" ability to sum up what they stand for in 50 words in 30 seconds that I was able to articulate on the doorstep in 1979, they are, organisationally, in reasonable shape. As yet, there is no common thread running through the separate policies so far articulated. They still have candidates to select in hopeless seats – but so do Labour. In fact, Labour also have to find candidates in several of their target Tory-held marginals.

Shoe leather on the ground will not be the priority if an election is held against the backcloth of dark nights and bad weather, and this will help the Tories. Voters will not want to be disturbed by canvassers from any political party once the clocks have been put back on 28 October – and no party will find activists willing to walk the streets after dark. Even the usual "flying circus" of party leaders helicoptering in to provincial towns and cities will be hamstrung by weather conditions and the unwillingness of shoppers to dally in the autumn rain and fog.

The last time an election was held in November was in 1935 (14 November). Stanley Baldwin was re-elected as prime minister with a landslide majority on the basis of a "safety first" campaign. Gordon Brown – if he takes the plunge – will presumably make a similar appeal as "father of the nation". But Mr Cameron holds all the cards this afternoon. Now, as this extraordinary conference season closes later today, the stage is set for Mr Brown to take the biggest risk of his political career.

mrbrown@talktalk.net