Simon Read: Mixed news for families, but the real pain lies ahead

Who are the winners out of George Osborne's emergency Budget? Our figures show that a couple earning £25,000 or less with two children have most to be happy about. They will be £17 a month better off as a result of the changes introduced during the current tax year. Also smiling, albeit a little ruefully, will be single people earning £20,000 or less with one child who will get an extra £12 a month.

However, all parents may feel the pain from the freezing of child benefit for three years and the several cutbacks announced in child tax credits, including those not mentioned by Mr Osborne in his main Budget speech.

From next April the picture slightly changes when we look for winners. With the personal allowance rising by £1,000 to £7,475 for those aged under 65 from 2011, you'd expect low-earners to be facing a better income. In fact, Mr Osborne predicted the change will lift as many as 880,000 people out of tax altogether.

Our figures suggest that, indeed, low earners will be the biggest winners. From next April a couple where only one earns an income of £10,000 who have two children are likely to face the biggest boost to their income as a result of the Chancellor's changes; they will end up £79 a month better off. Next in line to gain most will be a couple where both are earning a total of £25,000 with two children; they will be £76 a month better off.

The losers during the current tax year are almost anyone earning £125,000 or more. They will be £216 a month worse off as a result of the Budget changes. The exceptions are pensioner couples aged 73-74 and couples where both earn, irrespective of whether they have children or not. They won't be hit by a cut in income unless they earn £175,000 or more, at which level they will also notice a £216 monthly reduction.

From next April the biggest losers could be the 700,000 people predicted to be paying 40 per cent tax in their income for the first time. From the start of the 2011-12 tax year the higher rate tax band will drop by around £2,500 – although the actual rate is to be set according to this September's RPI figures.

Currently, the 40 per cent tax rate applies to earnings of £37,400. Taking account of the £6,475 personal allowance, it means most people now start paying 40 per cent tax on income above £43,875. Even with the £1,000 increase in the personal allowance from April 2011, the planned cut in the higher rate tax band to around £34,900 means some 700,000 people will start paying 40 per cent tax. That's on top of the the 3.13 million people already paying higher rate tax.

Partly because of those changes, our figures show that from next April single people with children or a couple with one earner and children will be worse off if they have an income of £45,000 or more. At that level the monthly loss will be £42. A single person with no children will, by comparison, only be £14 worse off.

The financial pain for a couple with children where both earn won't start until their income hits a total of £50,000. At that level they will be £18 a month worse off from next April, although if they earn £60,000 they will actually be £19 a month better off. At £70,000 there will be no change for couples where both earn, but at £80,000 the loss will be £8 a month, and climbs as income increases.

There'll be more pain ahead as the freeze on the higher rate tax band for three years will certainly drag thousands more into the 40 per cent tax bracket.

Independent Comment
blog comments powered by Disqus
Career Services

Day In a Page

Child of the revolution: the Burmese family that democracy brought back together

Home of the free

The Burmese family that democracy brought back together
Cannes review: Canine accolade and Hitler's return are high spots amid the gloom

Cannes review

Frocks, canine accolade and Hitler's return
Robert Fisk: The going price of getting away with murder... would $33m be enough?

The going price of getting away with murder

Robert Fisk: The long view
Principled Skinner rises above the fray

Principled Skinner rises above the fray

Andy McSmith meets Dennis Skinner
Patrick Cockburn: I fear this terrible massacre will be the beginning of a long civil war in Syria

Patrick Cockburn

I fear this terrible massacre will be the beginning of a long civil war in Syria
Hardeep Singh Kohli: For me, it is all about 'Gregory's Girl', a record of first love

Hardeep Singh Kohli

For me, it is all about 'Gregory's Girl', a record of first love
Christian Louboutin: 'I don't think comfort equals happiness'

Christian Louboutin interview

'I don't think comfort equals happiness'
Happy birthday, Hotel Babylon!

Happy birthday, Hotel Babylon!

Hollywood's home to the A-list celebrates 100 years of discreet luxury
Rupert Cornwell: Low-rise capital could finally reach for the sky

Rupert Cornwell: Out of America

Low-rise capital could finally reach for the sky
The secret life of the red carpet

The secret life of the red carpet

As Cannes reaches its climax with the Palme d'Or and the celebrities gather in London for the Baftas tonight, Kate Youde and Jack Dean investigate the real star of the show
It's not easy being Professor Green: The rapper, the heiress and a drama made in Chelsea...

It's not easy being Professor Green

The rapper, the heiress and a drama made in Chelsea...
Hardcore, hard-wired: How the prevalence of porn is changing our everyday lives

How porn is changing our lives

It's everywhere - from pop videos to fashion magazines to the theatrical stage.
River Phoenix: the final reel

River Phoenix: the final reel

Twenty years after the actor's death, his last film is to be released
Facebook: The shares shenanigans

Facebook: The shares shenanigans

Investors are crying foul over the huge losses they incurred when the social network site floated on the stock market last week
Up and away – how '7 Up' went global

Up and away – how '7 Up' went global

As the last episode of Britain's '56 Up' airs, the first episode of '28 Up', from the former USSR, starts. Then there's the US, Japan, Germany...