Steve Richards: Blair's progressive coalition falls apart

As you read this senior Labour figures are probably still rushing around studios arguing that the election results could have been a lot worse. They seem to be on a strange high, much more delighted than when Labour performed well in elections. When Labour soared they worried about whether their electoral supremacy would be short lived. Now they drink to the fact that support for the party has not collapsed entirely. Labour is more at ease when it is losing.

Even so from a Labour perspective the results are bleak. Like last year's elections they show that the progressive coalition that propelled Labour into power and kept it there is fracturing. Or to put it another way, the anti-Conservative coalition that formed so potently in the mid-1990s has ceased to function. If there is an informal coalition now it is defined more against Labour.

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The centre left is scattered all over the place, with the extraordinary outcome in Scotland being the most vivid example of a broader trend. Evidently in Scotland many progressives voted for the SNP rather than Labour. This is one result that will not be forgotten in 24 hours. The SNP leader, Alex Salmond, becomes a constant reminder of the constitutional tensions within the United Kingdom as Gordon Brown prepares to become Prime Minister.

The fracturing of the progressive coalition is taking place less dramatically elsewhere too. In parts of England, especially in the north, some Labour voters switched to the Liberal Democrats. In Wales the centre left is split at least three ways. Across the country some progressives do not bother to vote as they fume against Labour. The radical century envisaged by Tony Blair in his early years is in danger of falling apart in the first decade.

Two new factors bring about the current political mood. There is anger with Labour and, away from Scotland, the Tories are not hated as much as they were. As a result these elections and those that were contested last year follow a pattern closer to the general elections in the 1980s.

Then the rise of the SDP split the left-of-centre vote at least two ways, allowing the Conservatives to win landslide majorities.

In the late 1990s the opposite happened. Progressive forces united against the Tories, with the Lib Dems working openly with Labour. The SNP made little headway in Scotland. In Wales Labour was dominant too. As a result it was Labour that won landslides. If the current pattern applies at the next general election the Conservatives will win, an unintended consequence of progressives failing to unite behind a single force.

Can Labour rebuild a coalition of support before then and win a fourth term? Of course there is plenty of evidence to suggest it can. I would not bet against it. Midterm elections can never be a definitive guide to the future. The Conservatives are not doing as well as Labour in the mid-1990s and are virtually invisible in Scotland. Labour fought Thursday's elections in bizarre circumstances between leaders, with the current Prime Minister focusing partly on his departure and the next Downing Street incumbent planning his future.

Gordon Brown is one of the most formidable politicians of our age, oddly underestimated at the moment. The economy is sound and the Tory party is torn between the need to move to the centre ground and its instinctive appetite for tax cuts, social conservatism and virulent Euro-scepticism.

But a recovery is possible only if the party's leading figures recognise how dangerous the current situation is. In the late 1990s, Tony Blair and others underestimated the political opportunities when the party was soaring, too fearful of a Tory revival and unused to being popular. Now I sense some underestimate how badly the party is performing as they express a sigh of relief that it could have been worse. New Labour was not arrogant enough when it was winning and risks being too arrogant now it is slaughtered.

In reality, Labour faces the daunting challenge of putting together the fractured centre-left coalition while breaking the Conservatives' new hold on the south of England. In order to get out of the hole they must recognise that they are in one.

The Conservatives prefer a different metaphor to describe their political situation, admitting that they have a mountain to climb but arguing also that they are halfway up the ascent. That is an accurate assessment. In interviews yesterday some Conservative-supporting commentators were dismissive, suggesting that last Thursday's outcome was the least the Conservatives could have achieved. Memories are short. After the 2005 general election the Conservatives were in disarray. Now they are miles ahead of Labour in the popular vote.

This is significant progress. If I were a Conservative my concerns would be different. It will not get easier than this for David Cameron, a vacuum at the top of Labour, no critical scrutiny of his party and policies, screaming headlines about cash for honours and the rest. He will find the climb harder from now on.

The Liberal Democrats' leader, Sir Menzies Campbell, is the latest victim of the advances made by Cameron so far. Once more there are questions about his leadership after the Lib Dems' poor performance. He can take cold comfort from the fact that his potential successors would have struggled too. His party is trapped in an unpromising situation in which the Conservatives are making a partial recovery and Labour is not collapsing. In such circumstances there is much less room for the third party to breathe. Would Chris Huhne or even the much-touted Nick Clegg have come to the rescue as a leader? I doubt it.

Here is the truth of it. When Tony Blair stands down, national politics will feel different and these elections will form part of the past rather than serve as a reliable guide to the future, a verdict on an unusual and shapeless phase of British politics. In that context the SNP and the Conservatives have much more cause to tour the studios in a celebratory mood than senior Labour figures that derive a perverse comfort from their battering.

s.richards@independent.co.uk

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