Steve Richards: Darling took his time – but he has ushered a new age
An era has ended. The orthodoxy originating in the 1980s is broken
Thursday, 9 October 2008
Help! What do we do next? The exclamation and the panic-stricken question are posed not only by fearful depositors, mortgage holders, pensioners and small-business owners. Political leaders around the world exclaim and ask, too. Everywhere they are caught by surprise, responding to epoch-changing events rather than shaping them, changing their tunes on a daily basis and in some cases scrapping a lifetime's worship at the altar of the free market. None of them are sure what will happen next.
On Monday in the Commons, Chancellor Alistair Darling repeated calmly the Government's familiar mantra that he would do whatever it takes to address the financial crisis. It was obvious that by making such a sweeping statement Mr Darling would not let a single bank go bust. How could he have done so having declared that he would act to prevent such a traumatic event from occurring? He did not state or imply with his understated humour: "We will do everything it takes, but will stand by if a bank goes bankrupt."
The banks knew that Mr Darling and others were drawing up a detailed rescue plan along the lines rushed forward in the announcement yesterday. They were involved in the negotiations. But the Chancellor's words on Monday were not enough. The banks panicked. They are not behaving rationally. So yesterday Mr Darling was back with a package, the precise details of which were hammered out in the middle of the night.
Should he and Gordon Brown have anticipated the irrational panic? Arguably they should have done and announced the measures on Monday. But the package was not ready then. Would it have been better to have rushed it through? In the light of the collapse in confidence that followed it might have been, but the sums were huge, other governments around the world had to be squared, taxpayers needed a deal in which they had a say over how the banks spent their cash, but not so much that all innovation was stifled. There was a case for getting the right package rather than delivering it with more manic speed.
But in taking their time, ministers were making a rational assessment. There is nothing rational now in the crisis. Political leaders are seeking to anticipate hysterical behaviour in a financial market paralysed by fear. They are doing so in a crisis of such magnitude that most of them are out of their depths. Out of the blue Angela Merkel announces that all depositors in Germany would be protected. Or does she make such a firm policy commitment? It is not clear. Hank Paulson funds a package to save the banking and mortgage industry in the US from a near total collapse, but the package is a mess, a massive subsidy without enough conditions attached. He chose speed over detail. Iceland nationalises its banks and discovers it does not have the money to fund the move. Evidently Iceland is in such difficulty that it has gone almost incommunicado. Mr Darling revealed that British officials are having difficulty getting through to find out what is going on, one of the reasons why the Government has moved to protect the savings of those with accounts in Iceland, a highly significant move that conveys the message it will protect savers in the UK under any circumstances.
As in the US, Germany, Iceland and elsewhere political leaders here are feeling their way. Not so long ago Mr Brown could only mumble softly and nervously the words "temporary public ownership" in relation to Northern Rock. Now he speaks confidently about the partial nationalisation of the entire banking system. The Conservatives have been muddled, opposing the Northern Rock nationalisation and coming up with incoherent proposals that would have led to an even earlier collapse in the banking system, seeking to be responsibly bi-partisan while keeping their distance in case things go wrong. With considerable chutzpah they now pose as the opponents of the greedy bankers, having a moment or two ago been evangelists of a lightly regulated market that could not and should not be bucked under any circumstances.
And yet the volcanic events propel the political leaders to the front line. They are the ones that we turn to. They are accountable, we elected them and they alone have the power to make a difference. The untrammelled free markets got us into this mess. They cannot get us out of it. Only the state can do so. Many small-business owners and big bankers who have spent their working lives cursing any government intervention now wonder whether even after yesterday's multibillion pound package the Government has intervened enough. The world has turned and nothing will be the same again.
Watching Prime Minister's Question Time yesterday was a strange experience. Exactly a year ago, Mr Brown was white as a sheet answering questions ineptly on his non-election fiasco. David Cameron taunted him with an insightful wit. The exchanges symbolised a transformed political situation. Yesterday it had changed again. Mr Brown was in command, taking a tour around the details of the package daring even to hope that it will be followed by other countries. In a bigger crisis than cocking-up the timing of an election he looked prime ministerial instead of the frightened figure of a year ago, unable to disguise his horror at being caught playing dirty counter-productive political games.
The long term political fall-out, like the future twists in the economic drama, are impossible to predict. Mr Brown performed confidently yesterday, but a lot of money is tied up in this rescue plan. Maybe the Government will get it back over time, but not in the 18 months leading up to the next election.
While the future is still hazy it is clear that an era has ended. The orthodoxy originating from the 1980s that hailed home ownership, financial deregulation, an uncritical faith in the market and an indiscriminate hostility to the state is broken. The reckless risk-takers were allowed to get away with it because fearful, self-deprecating elected leaders believed in the magic of the marketplace and were too scared to rule, frightened that if they did so the likes of Britain would return to the dark days of the 1970s. Now government intervention and regulation becomes acceptable – desirable, even.
If we can get through the current crisis in one piece the new era will be fairer, more efficient and more balanced than the wild one that preceded it. As taxpayers we will have a say in the way the banks behave instead of being powerless victims. It might not feel like it as we take shelter behind a mind boggling multibillion pound package, but the big change is a shift in power away from unaccountable bankers to taxpayers and their elected leaders who have made a big investment in the future of the financial industry. We are the masters now.
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Comments
22 Comments
Joe Patterson
There you go again blaming Thatcher and not blaming snake oil salesman Blair and bottler Brown who have been in power the last 11 years. You are also saying we are lucky that we have Brown and Darling now trying to repair the mess they created. Brown blames the whole solar system for the credit boom he created. Nothing wrong FPTP system. We do not want Clegg and the woolly libdems. I know what they have done in my borough in Islington.
Posted by simon | 09.10.08, 19:14 GMT
"We are the masters now.", what hubristic nonsense.
Some Facts: Brown not only sat and watched a trillion dollar asset boom he denied their was one and took credit for the feel good and spent the gains. The boom turned to bust as it inevitably would and we will have the millstone of debt used for the bailout for years to come. The future certainly is not hazy, we are in for a prolonged recession as asset prices deflate to real values.
One thing we could certainly do without at present are attempts at grand narratives based around flimsy evidences and obvious biases.
Posted by David Holden | 09.10.08, 16:18 GMT
Who said that he had ...
# a deep and abiding belief in open markets,
Gordon Brown: Mansion House speech (21/06/2007)
Oh yeah? Could have fooled me.
Posted by Jeremy Poynton | 09.10.08, 15:43 GMT
Fully agree Steve. The Tories have been telling us since Thatcher came to power that the market has the answers to everything and deregulation is the all embracing way forward. We can all see now where their belief in deregulation has got us, and we are all now paying for this Thatcherite ideology. If, god forbid, the Tories are returned to power at the next election then we are doomed to financial misery for they still believe in this failed doctrine.
Posted by Keith | 09.10.08, 15:33 GMT
Simon
You have ignored the main subject of my post: the electoral system. The fact that we ever got NEW Labour was due to the electoral system; and that the outcome of elections , under FPTP, depend on the floating voters in marginal seats who tend to get their opinions from the Murdoch press and the Mail. Hence to gain power Labour abandoned its principles, became, in consulatation with Murdoch, NEW Labour, and largely followed Thatcher. Under a rational electoral system we would never have had Thatcher - or Blair
We are just fortunate that under the FPTP lottery we have got Brown and Darling handling the present disaster, which as I have pointed out, has its origins in the the Thatcher/Reagan "greed is good" era when the results of the FPTP lottery were not so randomly fortunate
I note that not one commentator has even mentioned the electoral system and still seem to regard the Thatcher disaster as a golden age even though I have spelled out the phoney basis of her power
Posted by Joe Patterson | 09.10.08, 15:28 GMT
I dont think Brown and Darling are as daft as you think. When they decided that the banks would be bailed out by the taxpayer but in return they would require preference shares in the banks along with staff foregoing bonuses, it was in their interest that the banks shareholders did indeed panic. I have my suspicions also about the rumour that was put out that the banks were asking for help. By not anouncing details immediately the banks shares were hammered to a point where the best deal for the taxpayer could be had. I uderstand it will cost every taxpayer 16k, well in 5 years that should be worth 50k each, a nice tax rebate.
Posted by peter | 09.10.08, 14:37 GMT
We are the masters now"
i think what you mean when you say we is, anyone who lives in islington drinks red wine and drives an Audi.
This was done by our wonderful government for one reason to protect the middle class.
So that they could continue to boast how much there houses had made over the last 10years, so that hopefully in a year our two they will still be able to holiday in Italy or Morocco.
not content with paying less tax at the expense of the working poor, (oh dont worry about them , there too stupid to notice) they want more, more,more.
pandering to the middle class is a mistake as they are never, ever satisfied, their shreiks of indignant hipocracy ring out around North West London every night. and i am sick to death of subsiding some twit or twitess so she can buy the latest tv while i can barely survive in my sh***y studio flat.
Posted by unhappy jon | 09.10.08, 12:47 GMT
Joe Patterson
There you are harping back to Thatcher years! Snake oil salesman Blair and economic wizard Gordo had 11 years to set things right. Why did they not do it? They had plenty of time!
I tell you why, the system was working, but needing regulation a bit tighter as times were different in 1997. Gordo to win elections and to create 'a feel good factor' engineered the credit boom without putting regulations in place. People could not refuse credits handed over to them by banks hand over fist! Labour won 3 landslides on credit boom! My neighbour who has lost his home by defaulting on mortgage payments was one who earned less than me, got mortgage 7 times his slary and bought a home 4 times the size of my flat. In our street many did it and all have gone, the houses are boarded up now!
Gordo did nothing about the credit boom and was busy lecturing Europe about how he fixed the boom and bust! He has no courage to own up his mistakes now.
Posted by simon | 09.10.08, 12:44 GMT
I just Steve Richards a la carte approach to democracy.
"We are the masters now". Laughed out loud at this one, especially after Boris' much justified sacking of Sir Ian Blair last week. Oh, what rage and apolexy it prompted from Steve Richards though ! The very CHEEK of an ELECTED politician, with a huge mandate, removing one of Steve's favourite type of people- the sleek, politically correct right-on elite.
"We are the masters now" Steve- we in the Conservative Party.
You will have to deal with it. Blair is just a taster of what is to come.
Posted by Labour Gone Soon | 09.10.08, 11:21 GMT
Dear Steve,
I agree that it would be plain churlish not to accept that Darling and Brown crafted a materially more nuanced one than Paulson
[Paulson has been near perfect for a Trader, every time he opens his mouth, the Dow sells off] and that they need to be commended for stepping up to the plate but this is desperate.
Elsewhere you say
nothing rational now in the crisis. Political leaders are seeking to anticipate hysterical behaviour in a financial market paralysed by fear.
I beg to differ. The market is entirely rational. It has sniffed out that if you were running $25+ of risk and you had $1.00 of capital, you had very little margin for error. Then if a significant chunk of your portfolio is worth 20cents in the $ [Merril Lynch sale of sub prime not so many weeks ago] then you are practically bust not once but many times over.
Transferring unquantified losses from a defunct Banking
sector to the Taxpayer is a desperate act.
Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke
Posted by Aly-Khan Satchu | 09.10.08, 11:19 GMT
22 Comments