Steve Richards: Here are a few items for Gordon Brown to put on his holiday 'to do' list...

When Prime Ministers are in deep trouble they tend to lose a sense of proportion. Big and small challenges merge into one seemingly unpassable mountain. Only when they step back from the daily frenzy do some of them get a clearer perspective.

On his summer holidays, Tony Blair used to write lists of what his priorities should be on his return, the sort of things that were achievable in the short term and, on a separate sheet of paper, more medium-term objectives. When Gordon Brown heads for his break towards the end of next week, he should do the same. He needs one of those "to do" lists that many of us compile in a mood of artificial optimism when on holiday. On his return, there are things he needs to do as a matter of urgency.

The mood of Labour MPs as they left Westminster earlier this week was extraordinary. There has been nothing quite like it. Most of them are not as recklessly defeatist as Conservative MPs were in the mid-1990s, but they have succumbed with good cause to a bewildered gloom, a melancholic passivity that is complicated by the timing. This is a mid-term summer recess. There are still two years for the situation to change. They know that the Conservatives are flakier than they seem. As far as I can tell, none of them is thinking of defecting, a theme of the mid- to late-1990s as Conservative MPs switched sides. They place their hopes still in Labour getting its act together, but have no idea how it will happen. Inevitably, the leadership question comes up as part of the agonised introspection.

That question will not be resolved immediately, even if Labour loses today's by-election in Glasgow East. The mood in relation to the by-election is summed up by the comments of a Cabinet minister I bumped into this week. I joked that that he and other Cabinet colleagues were making life difficult for political columnists as we tried to work out what they planned to do next. The minister replied intriguingly that things would become clearer by the end of the week, suggesting that the by-election was indeed a pivotal moment. Excited by the prospect of a possible summer uprising, I asked if I could discuss matters with him next week. He told me he would be on holiday. As I have written before, whatever happens in the by-election, holidays will follow.

Brown desperately needs one too, although he is not quite there yet. As one of his aides put it to me, he has to get through Glasgow East and then the party's policy forum in Warwick, an event that will be "viewed through the prism of the by-election result". If Labour loses, the gathering in Warwick will be ghastly for Brown on many different levels. If the party wins in Glasgow, the forum, although significant in terms of future policy direction, will come and go without a thunderous eruption. After which, Brown has a visit from Barack Obama to mark the transition from arduous, relentless, unglamorous work to a supposed break.

The break is theoretical because some of Brown's allies fear that taking a holiday in England means that he will spend much of his time watching Sky News. If he wants to do a bit of work, he should switch off the TV and write that "to do" list instead. Some of the big issues looming this autumn are close to being beyond his control. As the Secretary of State for Schools, Ed Balls, said to me in an interview in yesterday's Independent, soaring oil prices will mean higher gas and electricity bills in the autumn. This is when the pressures of daily life for voters could meet the febrile mood in Westminster and prove a combustible combination for Brown. Although he is pulling the limited levers available to him, there is not much he can do about the price of oil. So what can he do? What should be on his "to do" list?

Brown is known to reflect in private that few are listening to him at the moment. The rhythm of British politics means that this will change in the autumn. In the build-up to the party conference, and during that highly significant week in Manchester, he will have an audience. He must find a language and a narrative that makes some sense of the last bleak year, the rosier decade that preceded it – and then he must offer hope of sunnier uplands once more in the future.

The words must be accessible and not managerial. The themes must be dynamic and not static. His favourite theme of "Britishness" does not go anywhere. He must find ways also of linking the good things the Government has done to the daily lives of voters. To take one example, the fact that GPs are available on a Saturday has not happened by chance, but was brought about by an act of political will.

Next, Brown needs to make Downing Street and, separately, his Cabinet work more effectively. These are the kingdoms over which he has power to make changes. He cannot order the Saudis to produce more oil. He can make sure all those in Downing Street are working together as a team with a clear sense of strategic direction. He needs also to reshuffle his Cabinet and appoint a figure to carry out the role played by Chris Patten during John Major's successful period between 1990 and 1992. Patten and others were on the media whenever Neil Kinnock opened his mouth.

In contrast, David Cameron has had the freedom to roam around without any credible Labour figure responding. Dig beneath the surface and the Conservatives are vulnerable on several fronts, as their more astute MPs realise. For some reason, Brown has chosen not to dig. Most cabinet reshuffles change nothing. If Brown gets them right the changes could make a difference for the better.

Just in case the Government manages to find a leading figure or two capable of mounting a credible onslaught Cameron would be well advised to spend a small chunk of his holiday doing the opposite to Brown. He does not need a "to do" list. Cameron is doing all the smaller things within his power with an awesome aplomb, but he needs to turn his mind more forensically to the demanding art of policy-making.

The Shadow Secretary of State for Schools, Michael Gove, highlighted the fragility this week in his attacks on Balls, blaming him for the cock-ups over school exams. Yet Balls was not directly involved, having handed over the relevant powers to a quango and a private company. The Conservatives want to do much more of this, insisting they will change the culture in which ministers always get the blame. Even so, Gove blames Balls. Too often, the Conservatives opt for opportunism rather than coherence, something for Cameron to reflect on if it rains during his trip to Cornwall.

But, for obvious reasons, Brown has the much greater cause for introspection. Labour MPs want to hold on to their seats. Their passive gloom will turn to panic if the opinion polls do not show significant improvements soon.

s.richards@independent.co.uk

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