Leading article: A dangerous ambiguity

The crisis sparked by President Pervez Musharraf's dismissal of the head of the Pakistan Supreme Court has reached boiling point. In March, the removal of Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry yielded the surreal spectacle of suited lawyers hurling rocks at lines of police. But it has now grown into the greatest challenge to President Musharraf's authority since he took power in a military coup in 1999.

Over the weekend there were vicious clashes between supporters and opponents of the government in Karachi. Some 40 people were killed, which the pro-Musharraf Muttahida Qaumi Movement blamed for the worst of the violence. In response, the opposition parties called a nationwide general strike yesterday, paralysing many cities.

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Since its foundation, Pakistan has been a complex and unstable country. But even by such turbulent standards, this represents a major crisis. At the heart of the matter is the position of President Musharraf. The general had promised to stand down as the head of the army by the end of 2004, but backed out of this commitment. Now he wants to stand for a second presidential term in the autumn. The chief justice is accused of abusing his office. But it is widely believed that the real reason for his dismissal was President Musharraf's desire to have a more obedient figure at the head of the judiciary in case of a constitutional challenge to his position.

We should beware interpreting this as a simple case of a military establishment suppressing a democratic opposition. Some of the opposition parties in Pakistan subscribe to an undemocratic and totalitarian strain of Islam. And several have done a deal with the establishment in which they are given control of religious colleges, madrassas, in return for not taking on the regime directly. This dangerous ambiguity can also be detected in the Pakistani government's attitude to Islamist terrorism. There have been repeated accusations from the Afghan government that the Pakistani secret service supports the Taliban. It is notable that the wife and family of the Taliban commander, Mullah Dadullah, who was assassinated over the weekend, live in the Pakistani city of Quetta. And yet the Bush administration regards Musharraf as a key ally in the campaign to thwart religious extremists in the region.

The situation is complex, but it is undeniable that Musharraf has reneged on his promises to restore democracy in Pakistan. And he increasingly resembles a dictator trying to entrench his position. That is often the beginning of the end. No matter how useful he may be to the West, if he continues in this vein, President Musharraf risks being swept away in the same manner as he dispatched his predecessors.