Leading article: A result that shows democracy is alive and well

So it will, after all the excitement and uncertainty of the campaign, be Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal who contest the run-off of the French presidential election. One of these two will be the next occupant of the Elysée and become the first president of France with no memory of the Second World War. M. Sarkozy, with an impressive 30 per cent of the first-round vote - far higher than Jacques Chirac received in either 1995 or 2002 - must now be favourite, but he is far from home and dry.

Altogether, this is a hugely reassuring result of a reassuring campaign. It is reassuring, first, because it means that French politics is back to normal after the aberration of five years ago. The second round will pit the centre-right candidate, M. Sarkozy, against the Socialist, Mme Royal. It is a right-left match in the traditional French mould. The Socialist Party is back in contention, following the disgrace of five years ago. Voters did not fall a second time for the dangerous seduction of Jean-Marie Le Pen.

The result is reassuring, second, because supporters of the mainstream parties did not take first-round victory for granted - the complacency that contributed to the National Front's coup last time around. France treated this campaign with the seriousness it deserved. The turnout was the highest for a quarter of a century. As in the last major elections in Italy and Germany, voters well understood that their vote mattered, and they used it. Democracy, contrary to the doom-mongers, is alive and well.

It is reassuring, too, for psephology. After the disaster of five years ago, when the pollsters underestimated M. Le Pen's appeal, their predictions this time were as accurate as they could have been in such a close race with so many voters undecided until they entered the polling booth. If anything, they overestimated the National Front's support.

The result is reassuring, fourth, because voters in the end rejected the option that came closest to preservation of the status quo. After flirting with the soothing authority of the centrist candidate, François Bayrou, they consigned him to third place, albeit a strong third.

M. Bayrou deserves credit for making this, against all expectations, a genuine three-way race. In the end, detractors from right and left who claimed that the election of a candidate from so small a party would be a recipe for legislative stagnation won the argument. But M. Bayrou ran an impressive race and garnered a respectable tally. The eventual victor will have to take account of what must now be called the Bayrou-ist tendency: the political centre that is apprehensive about change.

The second round in two weeks' time is now set to be every bit as exciting as the first. Despite his clear lead, M. Sarkozy is not guaranteed victory. Will the National Front votes go to M. Sarkozy, who fought his campaign with half an eye to the run-off, or will disappointed Le Pen supporters stay at home? The bigger question, though, will be which way the Bayrou voters decide to jump. M. Bayrou drew votes from left and right in almost equal measure; arguably, his voters will determine the result.

Whoever wins will have to court this centrist vote. But whoever wins will also spell change for France, after the time-marking of the Chirac years. Not only are both contenders of the new generation, they are also politicians of a new type. Mme Royal would be France's first woman President. M. Sarkozy, the son of a Hungarian aristocratic immigrant, has the energy and assertiveness of the parvenu.

They offer very different ideas of France. But they have in common a modern view of France and of the world. Of all the reassuring aspects of yesterday's election, this is the most reassuring of all.

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