Aqaarid can conquer

RACING: Celtic Swing and Sebastian taken out of Derby, but all 10 stand their ground for the Oaks

The Oaks, elbowed out of Saturday's card by the Derby, its younger brother, is now the third Classic in the calendar, though after studying the field some may feel that third-rate would be just as accurate. So far this season, the 10 fillies who will go to post this afternoon have accumulated just six victories between them. Three of the runners, indeed, are maidens. At first sight, you can call it a Classic only with fingers tightly crossed.

Yet despite the fact that the betting is 14-1 bar three, the three in question - Aqaarid, Moonshell and Pure Grain - all have either the form or potential to be worthy Oaks winners and, just as importantly, provide a compelling spectacle up the long Epsom straight. And even with such an obvious short-list, the race remains an intriguing puzzle for the punter.

When two horses dominate a market, it is often wise to size up each-way alternatives among the remainder. But when there are three hogging the betting, looking elsewhere for a winner is all but pointless. Deciding between them, however, is an exacting task.

Aqaarid, as her position as favourite suggests, has the top-class form in the book. She took the Group One Fillies' Mile at Ascot last year and finished second in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket last month, three-quarters of a length ahead of Moonshell, with both fillies running as if today's 12 furlongs would prove to be their optimum trip.

Moonshell, as her supporters will point out, was competing for only the second time in her life at Newmarket, having trotted off a plane from Sheikh Mohammed's wintering station in Dubai just days earlier. She must have room for improvement, yet Aqaarid has had just four runs herself and should also continue to progress. Pure Grain, too, is hardly exposed, though perhaps less certain to thrive at today's trip.

But if each filly's potential for improvement is a matter for guesswork, the lingering effect, if any, of Moonshell's stay in Dubai is still harder to assess. Since the Godolphin operation came into being two years ago it has enjoyed remarkable success, most notably with Balanchine in last year's Oaks and Irish Derby. This season, too, the Godolphin silks have already been carried to a series of important victories by horses whose health and enthusiasm had apparently been doubled by their dose of winter sun.

As we all know only too well, though, the first weeks back at work after a holiday will fly by, but the effect wears off all too quickly. The vital question for Moonshell's backers is whether the physical advantages which helped her to run so well at Newmarket have now disappeared.

Dr David Marlin is studying acclimatisation in horses at the Animal Health Trust on behalf of the British equestrian team for next summer's Olympics in Atlanta. "One effect of the heat is an increase in the total amount of blood, as more of it goes to the skin to help the horse keep cool," he said yesterday. "When you return to a cool climate that extra blood will be a help when the horse is exercising. I wasn't surprised when horses started coming back from the Middle East and performing really well over here."

But the effect does not last long. "It can decay quite quickly," Dr Marlin said, "and within a week you could have lost most of the benefit." What may endure, however, is an overall physiological advantage conferred by Dubai's long hours of daylight, but the relative importance of these and other factors remains a mystery.

It is one mystery too many, perhaps, about a filly whose only previous run before Newmarket brought a three-length success in a Doncaster maiden. Expect her to finish third, with second place going to Pure Grain, and the applause to a runner whose overall form is simply far superior to anything her rivals can offer. Aqaarid (4.00) is the only sensible choice.