England exit likely to end Hussain's one-day captaincy

World Cup: Victory over Australia will not guarantee progress for Fletcher's side as they seek to end 13-game losing streak against champions

It has been 135 nights since Nasser Hussain last slept in his own bed but there should be no shortage of motivation for the England captain to extend his expedition south of the equator. For tomorrow's critical World Cup encounter against Australia could possibly be his last match in charge of England.

It is two weeks since Hussain threatened to resign as captain, in the aftermath of the Zimbabwe affair, and while he has maintained the stance that he will review his position at the end of the tournament, this could be tomorrow should results not go England's way. The likelihood is that the 34-year-old will stand down as one-day captain at the end of the World Cup, but maintain his position as leader of the Test side. He would not want to go out as a loser.

Hussain is not the only player or official to have spent this much time abroad, nor will he be alone in thinking that this match in Port Elizabeth could be the last he plays in coloured clothing should England fail to qualify for the Super Sixes.

Before we move on to tomorrow's match, it is worth explaining England's position in Group A because it is complicated. Read carefully because I will write this only once. Such confusion is highlighted by the fact that England could still be eliminated from the tournament if they beat Australia – but qualify if they lose to them.

England's future relies on results going their way elsewhere. In the three games which take place over the next four days, there are eight possible result combinations. Only one of these would definitely take England through, five would eliminate them and two would take qualification to net run-rate, which measures how much quicker or slower a side scores in a match than their opponents.

The first of these games takes place today between India and Pakistan. England would like India to win because if Pakistan leave Centurion victorious, Hussain's team have to beat Australia to stay in the competition. If India win and England lose to Australia, which is likely on current form, the match between Zimbabwe and Pakistan on 4 March then becomes vital.

Pakistan are favourites to win this game and, if they do, it would be net run-rate that settles which two of the three teams on 12 points goes through. Of these three, England have the best run-rate and are therefore favourites. If Zimbabwe beat Pakistan, England are definitely out because if two sides are level on points it is the winner of the game between the two that goes through, and England's decision not to travel to Harare will have come back to haunt them.

In summary, the likely set of results would give England a good chance of qualifying. Their chances, however, would double should they beat Australia. But rain in any of these three games would throw out all calculations.

Achieving this is easier said than done, as an Ashes tour has recently shown. On top of crushing Test defeats, England have failed to beat the world champions in any of their last 13 one-day contests. Hussain's side have a chance, even though a victory is improbable.

Australia have already qualified for the Super Sixes without Shane Warne and have demolished every side they have come up against in the tournament, yet Ricky Ponting's team will not be short of motivation. As well as being two wins away from matching their own record run of 13 victories, set while Steve Waugh was captain, Australia also take points through to the next stage of the World Cup for every win they achieve in this round.

The biggest source of encouragement to Hussain's squad is that, following their narrow defeat in the second of the VB Series finals in January, England feel they are getting closer to beating their arch rivals each time they play them. They are also hoping the law of averages works in their favour.

"We feel we should have beaten India two nights ago," said the England coach, Duncan Fletcher, when talking about his side's chances. "We have also got so close to beating Australia that we want to go out there and prove a point. We got better and better as the winter progressed and we need to make sure we go one step further now. This would be an ideal opportunity to do it. At some stage something is going to have to turn."

On the fitness side, England expect to have a full squad of 15 to pick from despite concerns over Craig White, who had a pain-killing injection in his left side on Thursday.

The nature of the pitch in Port Elizabeth may make the decision of whether to gamble with White simple. The wicket at St George's Park is different to most in South Africa in that it is slow and offers help to the spinners. This could help England because Australia are used to playing on quicker and bouncier surfaces and the different conditions could catch them out.

They may also encourage Hussain and Fletcher to reintroduce not only the left-arm spin of Ashley Giles, but also that of Ian Blackwell. To accommodate this pair, White and Ronnie Irani would go.

Because of what could take place in other fixtures this is not quite a do-or-die match for England. However, it is the opportunity to show you have got what it takes to rise to a challenge and perform on the biggest of stages. Who comes through with credit will be as revealing as the result.