Have some faith in the unbelievable moments

View from Oz

Despite its reputation for extravagance, one-day cricket is mostly predictable. Adam Gilchrist is not going to come out to bat and block because the modern top-order tactic is to demonstrate ballistic menace. The middle-overs slowdown when the field spreads has been with us forever, and at the death there's the slog. Fielding captains are comfortable with pattern settings and their bowling changes are mostly premeditated.

It's that predictability which ensures that the unpredictable, when it happens, occasionally enjoys the more inflated status of the unbelievable. The New Zealand captain Martin Crowe gave the new ball to off-spinner Dipak Patel to confuse Australia's openers Geoff Marsh and David Boon in the 1992 Cup. Patel bowled 10 overs for 36, Australia lost the match, never made the semi- finals, and Crowe's tactic consigned nudge-and-run openers to the dustbin of World Cup history.

In this Cup, unbelievable moments include: 1) John Davison, an off-spinner born in Canada 32 years ago but raised in Australia, where he bats at No 9 and never raises the pulse rates of scoreboard attendants, opening the batting against the West Indies and scoring Cup history's fastest century off 67 balls; 2) Brett Lee, whose pace, intimidation and accuracy have been irresistible, becoming a major casualty when the Zimbabwe No 8 Andy Blignaut hit 54 off 28 balls; 3) Sri Lanka, unbeaten in three games, playing like amateurs according to their captain when losing to Kenya, 250-1 outsiders. The stunned among us wondered what went wrong and, because the Anti-Corruption Unit had to call for extra tapes of the game, the conspiracy theorists dismissed human error in the wink of an eye.

We've all cringed at a few speculative shots, but that's cricket, especially limited-overs. In 1987 Mike Gatting's reverse sweep might have lost the Cup. In the 1983 Cup the unbelievable ranged from Zimbabwe beating Australia in the first match to India beating the unbeatable, Clive Lloyd's West Indians, in the final.

It's a good bet any tapes of those contests would highlight some less than first-class cricket. What if Sri Lanka did think – and it would have been dumb thinking with tough matches against West Indies and South Africa to come – that going easy on Kenya would advantage them when it came to Pool B Super Sixes standings? In the last World Cup Steve Waugh scored 19 from 73 balls and Michael Bevan 20 from 69 against a West Indian attack serving up mediocrity. Australia won easily, but employed a deliberate go-slow to boost the West Indies' run rate and hinder the chances of arch rivals New Zealand to qualify for the Super Sixes.

The tactic was against the spirit of the game, but within the laws. Anyway, where in the laws of cricket is the commandment a team must try to win? In any match- result investigation, unless the ACU can establish a money trail it is merely providing a public relations exercise for an ICC desperate for relevance.

Why the unbelievable happens is more basic. Pressure can drown tactical planning when the unpredictable surfaces. One-day cricket embraces the comfort factor and when a weakness theory about a batsman peters out, plan B is often to court capitulation – he'll get himself out. Carl Hooper wouldn't have had a game plan for Davison because in his mind he was just an ageing No 9.

The concentration factor comes into play, too. Zimbabwe, Canada and Kenya were "just turn up and we'll win" opponents for the major nations. Pressure sorts winners from losers: one has the balance to walk the high wire, the other finds a banana peel and slips. Pressure brainwashes bowlers. Ricky Ponting thought Lee had a bad day, bowled a lot of hit-me balls. Potential opponents might think Lee panicked, revealing a chink in Australia's gameplan. Pressure reveals character. After his positive drug test Shane Warne misled his team-mates and the public and was found guilty of vague, inconsistent and unsatisfactory evidence about diuretic use.

Surprisingly, Steve Waugh continues to defend player ignorance – he says it's difficult to cope with the drug education process because seminars occur at the end of a nine-to-six day. This from a man who once remained focused for 555 minutes while scoring a series-clinching 200 against the West Indies in 1995.

Cricket mentors preach the Six Ps – proper preparation prevents piss-poor performance. Pressure points abound in the final sprint for the Super Sixes. South Africa must beat Sri Lanka and England must be prepared to drop Marcus Trescothick to prevent another loss to Australia. Imagine the pressure if it rains!