The way England might just win

The Ashes: Mission can become possible if Hussain follows the Kiwi method - leave McGrath and attack Warne

The first thing to realise when pondering England's chances of regaining the Ashes this winter is that Nasser Hussain's side are up against it. Australia are comfortably the best side in the world, and even though England sit favourably in the chasing pack the gulf in class is wide.

To have any chance of success England will not only need to put out a full- strength side – which they cannot now do in Thursday's First Test here because Darren Gough's rehabilitation has taken longer than expected – but also to play absolutely to their potential. Anything less and Australia will be too good, even in third gear.

There is hope, however. And to find it, Hussain and his coach, Duncan Fletcher, need look no further than this time last year when New Zealand arrived on these shores. In a three-match series that was drawn 0-0, the Kiwis gave Steve Waugh's side a real fright and would actually have won but for an attack of nerves in Brisbane and some diabolical umpiring in the Third Test in Perth.

Analysis of how New Zealand almost became the first side to win in Australia since West Indies in 1992-93 is revealing, because it highlights the importance of Australia's two leading bowlers. Since the 2001 Ashes series in England, which the Aussies won 4-1 largely through the efforts of Glenn McGrath and Shane Warne, who took 63 wickets at an average of 17.81, Australia have played 12 Tests. In nine of those, against South Africa and Pakistan, McGrath and Warne were just as destructive – taking 104 wickets at an average of 19.1.

Over this period a staggering 63.4 per cent of the wickets Australia's bowlers captured were by these two, and you do not have to be Einstein to work out that they are the major threat to England's batsmen.

The control they give Waugh's side is awesome, and the stranglehold they put on the opposition as tight as the grip of a boa constrictor. On a typical fielding day for the Baggy Greens, McGrath and Warne will bowl 55 of the 90 overs available. The fact that they only go for 2.5 runs an over and take a wicket every 56 balls translates to a total of about 140 for 6 while the ball is in their hands. The batting side have to make pretty good progress during the rest of the day to get a score on the board.

However, against New Zealand, the pair took only 11 wickets at an average of 68.82. The moral of the story for England then is: keep McGrath and Warne out and Australia are relatively toothless. Easier said than done against two world-class performers, of course, but again, an analysis of the methods New Zealand used is instructive.

If we start with McGrath, the first thing to assess is how he gets batsmen out. Statistics again show the way, because 65 to 70 per cent of the big fellow's wickets are to catches between the wicket-keeper and cover point. Bowling an immaculate line, his plan is to draw batsmen into playing just outside off stump. What the New Zealand captain, Stephen Fleming, and his coach worked out – with the aid of video technology – is that only about one ball an over from McGrath would actually hit the stumps. The instructions given to the Kiwi batsmen were simple. If in doubt, leave him.

They did, and to such effectthat it was McGrath who became frustrated. Then he got angry and started bowling too straight in his efforts to make the batsmen play. In the end McGrath was actually being dictated to by the batsmen, which is something he is unaccustomed to. The batsmen had won.

Success against Warne took a different method. At the start of England's last Ashes tour in 1998-99 the squad had a couple of clinics with Peter Philpott, the former Australian leg-spinner. As well as talking us through the mechanics of bowling leg-spin he also advised on what sort of approach we should have when playing this style of bowler.

The strategy he suggested was that a batsman should look to be positive against a good leggie, but sit on and wait for the bad ball from a poor one. No prizes for guessing which category Warne comes into. No bowler wants to go for runs, and the more they go for the unhappier they are. With Chris Cairns in particularly belligerent form, New Zealand got after Warne to such a degree that he went for a run an over more than he has throughout his career.

With the injury-prone Jason Gillespie making his way back after tearing a calf muscle and the overrated Brett Lee under pressure for his place, the task facing England's batsmen can be made to look less formidable – achievable, even.

Which leaves the small matter of taking the 20 wickets you need to win a Test match. To put it mildly, this is going to be a challenge for England's bowlers as they take ona line-up which has six batsmen averaging over 40.

To have a chance of winning a Test match in Australia, on the good batting pitches that are the norm here, you have to post decent totals; scores of less than 300 are a waste of time. But if England can negate those two wonderful bowlers they have a chance to put Australia's batting line-up under some sort of pressure. It is psychological in many ways, but it is amazing how even the best batting line-ups can disintegrate when faced with a big score.

Australian cricket is into partnerships in a big way, whether they be with the bat or ball. And just as England have to break the one between McGrath and Warne they also have to get among their batsmen early, because making the most of the hard new Kookaburra ball is vital. Australia's openers, Matthew Hayden and Justin Langer, were first thrown together when their selectors' patience with Michael Slater ran out before the Fifth Test against England in 2001. The two left-handers put on 158 that day and have never looked back. In the 13 Test matches where these two close friends have walked out to take on the new ball together they have averaged an impressive 99.77. So, as with the bowling, this is the area England need to attack.

If England can strike with the first new ball having scored more than 400, even the Australian dressing room will start to look at each other and think: "Well, one of us has got to get some today." And with a couple of their team still under pressure for their places, who knows what might just happen?

The Gabba Effect Brisbane's role in the Ashes

1932-33
Australia 340 and 175 England 356 and 162 for 4
England won by 6 wkts

In the first match between the teams at the Gabba, the fourth of the Bodyline series, England regained the Ashes. Relations had reached a nadir in the previous match, with cables exchanged between the governing bodies, but Douglas Jardine's team remained dedicated to their task. Harold Larwood, principal exponent of the leg theory, took seven wickets, but the hero was Eddie Paynter, who left hospital with severe tonsillitis to make 83 and hit the Ashes-winning runs with a six.

1950-51
Australia 228 and 32 for 7 dec England 68 for 7 dec and 122
Australia won by 70 runs

A remarkable match, containing a remarkable innings, was decided by a Brisbane sticky dog. England restricted Australia to 228 in good batting conditions. Storms followed; the pitch become diabolical. England declared at 68 for 7, Australia at 32 for 7. At 30 for 6, England were doomed, but Len Hutton resisted the wiles of the new mystery spinner, Jack Iverson, making 62 not out. The last wicket put on 55, of which Doug Wright made two. Australian pitches were covered thereafter.

1954-55
Australia 601 for 8 dec England 190 and 257
Australia won by inns and 154

Captain Hutton, without a slow bowler, put Australia in. They made 601 for 8 and did not declare until lunch on the third day. Frank Tyson, England's new speed tiro, took 1 for 160. Arthur Morris and Neil Harvey made hundreds, England dropped several chances and then resisted lamely. Trevor Bailey and Bill Edrich scored fifties but it was a disastrous start to the series. It was also a false portent. Nine weeks later, England had won three consecutive Tests and the Ashes.

1974-75
Australia 309 and 288 for 5 dec England 265 and 166
Australia won by 166 runs

The birth of Lillee and Thomson as a fast bowling partnership. They took 13 wickets, injured both Dennis Amiss and John Edrich, and started the series as they went on, dismantling the cream of England's batsmanship when they weren't frightening the pants off it. But the highest and most defiant innings was played by Tony Greig, his only Ashes hundred and the first for England at Brisbane for 38 years, as he drove the fast men and sliced them over the slips.

1986-87
England 456 and 77 for 3 Australia 248 and 282
England won by 7 wkts

After 11 Tests without victory and a dreadful build-up, Mike Gatting's side turned form on its head. Ian Botham dashed to 138, hitting 22 off a Merv Hughes over, before Graham Dilley took 5 for 68 and made Australia follow on. Geoff Marsh scored a second-innings century in his first Ashes match but debutant Phillip DeFreitas (3 for 62) and off-spinner John Emburey (5 for 80) set up victory as Australia's last five wickets went for 20 runs.

1994-95
Australia 426 and 248 for 8 dec England 167 and 323
Australia won by 184 runs

Shane Warne's spell, first cast the previous summer in England, grew more powerful. He took 3 for 39 and 8 for 71, still his best innings analysis, as Australia dominated from the first ball (it went for four). Hundreds from Michael Slater and Mark Waugh put the game out of reach, England collapsed shambolically to Craig McDermott, Mark Taylor decided against enforcing the follow-on and despite more resistance in England's second innings the master leg-spinner did the rest.

By Stephen Brenkley