Championship betting preview: Underdog Derby to oust random Burnley
Michael Holden is one of the UK's leading football betting tipsters. A former casino croupier with a deep-rooted curiosity in statistics and probabilities, his passion for betting on the beautiful game stretches back more than two decades. Since graduating as a journalist from the University of Central Lancashire in 2005, he has delivered consistent profits for his legion of followers on Sportinglife.com and produced many groundbreaking feature articles on the application of social science in a football betting context. He is now the editor of Bestofthebets.com having orchestrated the design, build and launch of the new sports betting website for Gaming Media Group during the summer of 2011.
Friday 20 January 2012
Burnley scored a landmark result in their season with victory at Middlesbrough last weekend and it won them a fair few plaudits, but we're not convinced there's any magic dust around Turf Moor right now and we're willing to take the Clarets on when Derby visit this weekend.
The Lancashire outfit are in good shape and it's nice to see the doubters off Eddie Howe's back for the time being but his managerial style is always liable to produce extreme ups and downs because it's not in his nature to tolerate a stalemate and it just so happens that seven of the last nine coin tosses have come up heads following a sequence of six in eight tails.
You have to go all the way back to September for the last time Burnley drew a game and while in some people's logic that amounts to another one being due anytime now, we're more inclined to follow the principle that their games provide fertile ground for fixed odds punters all of the time.
The last 19 matches overall have produced 12 wins and seven defeats for the Clarets and there's no real rhyme or reason to when the triumphs and disasters have occurred, at least not looking at the prices.
Indeed, only six of those 19 matches have been won by the favourite, meaning that anyone who had backed the underdog to split £10 stakes in all of Burnley's league games over the course of the past four months would now be showing clear profit to the tune of £249. Or 130 per cent, if you prefer.
As blind systems go, that's pretty impressive and it just so happens that Derby give us plenty of cause for optimism. The Rams have won five games on the spin coming into this clash - not that you'd know it based on the coverage awarded to the two teams over the past seven days - and it's no coincidence that the tide has turned since Nigel Clough was finally able to field his first-choice back four from Boxing Day onwards.
We made that point when backing Derby for their trip to Hull on January 2 and they did us proud with victory at an identical price that day, so we shouldn't hesitate in snapping up the 4/1 available with Victor Chandler here. In truth, we've probably wasted 400 words trying to sell this bet because seven would have sufficed: Derby are above Burnley in the table.
Put simply, the price is an over-reaction to the fact that Burnley's win over Middlesbrough was the most talked-about result in the Championship last weekend and there's no more foundation to it than that.
1pt Derby to beat Burnley at 4/1 (Victor Chandler)
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