Championship betting preview: Underdog Derby to oust random Burnley

 

Burnley scored a landmark result in their season with victory at Middlesbrough last weekend and it won them a fair few plaudits, but we're not convinced there's any magic dust around Turf Moor right now and we're willing to take the Clarets on when Derby visit this weekend.

The Lancashire outfit are in good shape and it's nice to see the doubters off Eddie Howe's back for the time being but his managerial style is always liable to produce extreme ups and downs because it's not in his nature to tolerate a stalemate and it just so happens that seven of the last nine coin tosses have come up heads following a sequence of six in eight tails.

You have to go all the way back to September for the last time Burnley drew a game and while in some people's logic that amounts to another one being due anytime now, we're more inclined to follow the principle that their games provide fertile ground for fixed odds punters all of the time.

The last 19 matches overall have produced 12 wins and seven defeats for the Clarets and there's no real rhyme or reason to when the triumphs and disasters have occurred, at least not looking at the prices.

Indeed, only six of those 19 matches have been won by the favourite, meaning that anyone who had backed the underdog to split £10 stakes in all of Burnley's league games over the course of the past four months would now be showing clear profit to the tune of £249. Or 130 per cent, if you prefer.

 



As blind systems go, that's pretty impressive and it just so happens that Derby give us plenty of cause for optimism. The Rams have won five games on the spin coming into this clash - not that you'd know it based on the coverage awarded to the two teams over the past seven days - and it's no coincidence that the tide has turned since Nigel Clough was finally able to field his first-choice back four from Boxing Day onwards.

We made that point when backing Derby for their trip to Hull on January 2 and they did us proud with victory at an identical price that day, so we shouldn't hesitate in snapping up the 4/1 available with Victor Chandler here. In truth, we've probably wasted 400 words trying to sell this bet because seven would have sufficed: Derby are above Burnley in the table.

Put simply, the price is an over-reaction to the fact that Burnley's win over Middlesbrough was the most talked-about result in the Championship last weekend and there's no more foundation to it than that.

Recommended bet:

1pt Derby to beat Burnley at 4/1 (Victor Chandler)

For more betting news and views, please visit Bestofthebets.com. You can also follow Mike Holden on Twitter: @Miguel_BOTB

PROMOTED VIDEO
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Caption competition
Caption competition
Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?

Bleacher Report

Daily Quiz
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

Career Services

Day In a Page

Syria crisis: Celebrities call on David Cameron to take more refugees as one young mother tells of torture by Assad regime

Celebrities call on David Cameron to take more Syrian refugees

One young mother tells of torture by Assad regime
The enemy within: People who hear voices in their heads are being encouraged to talk back – with promising results

The enemy within

People who hear voices in their heads are being encouraged to talk back
'In Auschwitz you got used to anything'

'In Auschwitz you got used to anything'

Survivors of the Nazi concentration camp remember its horror, 70 years on
Autumn/winter menswear 2015: The uniforms that make up modern life come to the fore

Autumn/winter menswear 2015

The uniforms that make up modern life come to the fore
'I'm gay, and plan to fight military homophobia'

'I'm gay, and plan to fight military homophobia'

Army general planning to come out
Iraq invasion 2003: The bloody warnings six wise men gave to Tony Blair as he prepared to launch poorly planned campaign

What the six wise men told Tony Blair

Months before the invasion of Iraq in 2003, experts sought to warn the PM about his plans. Here, four of them recall that day
25 years of The Independent on Sunday: The stories, the writers and the changes over the last quarter of a century

25 years of The Independent on Sunday

The stories, the writers and the changes over the last quarter of a century
Homeless Veterans appeal: 'Really caring is a dangerous emotion in this kind of work'

Homeless Veterans appeal

As head of The Soldiers' Charity, Martin Rutledge has to temper compassion with realism. He tells Chris Green how his Army career prepared him
Wu-Tang Clan and The Sexual Objects offer fans a chance to own the only copies of their latest albums

Smash hit go under the hammer

It's nice to pick up a new record once in a while, but the purchasers of two latest releases can go a step further - by buying the only copy
Geeks who rocked the world: Documentary looks back at origins of the computer-games industry

The geeks who rocked the world

A new documentary looks back at origins of the computer-games industry
Belle & Sebastian interview: Stuart Murdoch reveals how the band is taking a new direction

Belle & Sebastian is taking a new direction

Twenty years ago, Belle & Sebastian was a fey indie band from Glasgow. It still is – except today, as prime mover Stuart Murdoch admits, it has a global cult following, from Hollywood to South Korea
America: Land of the free, home of the political dynasty

America: Land of the free, home of the political dynasty

These days in the US things are pretty much stuck where they are, both in politics and society at large, says Rupert Cornwell
A graphic history of US civil rights – in comic book form

A graphic history of US civil rights – in comic book form

A veteran of the Fifties campaigns is inspiring a new generation of activists
Winston Churchill: the enigma of a British hero

Winston Churchill: the enigma of a British hero

A C Benson called him 'a horrid little fellow', George Orwell would have shot him, but what a giant he seems now, says DJ Taylor
Growing mussels: Precious freshwater shellfish are thriving in a unique green project

Growing mussels

Precious freshwater shellfish are thriving in a unique green project