Championship betting preview: Underdog Derby to oust random Burnley

 

Burnley scored a landmark result in their season with victory at Middlesbrough last weekend and it won them a fair few plaudits, but we're not convinced there's any magic dust around Turf Moor right now and we're willing to take the Clarets on when Derby visit this weekend.

The Lancashire outfit are in good shape and it's nice to see the doubters off Eddie Howe's back for the time being but his managerial style is always liable to produce extreme ups and downs because it's not in his nature to tolerate a stalemate and it just so happens that seven of the last nine coin tosses have come up heads following a sequence of six in eight tails.

You have to go all the way back to September for the last time Burnley drew a game and while in some people's logic that amounts to another one being due anytime now, we're more inclined to follow the principle that their games provide fertile ground for fixed odds punters all of the time.

The last 19 matches overall have produced 12 wins and seven defeats for the Clarets and there's no real rhyme or reason to when the triumphs and disasters have occurred, at least not looking at the prices.

Indeed, only six of those 19 matches have been won by the favourite, meaning that anyone who had backed the underdog to split £10 stakes in all of Burnley's league games over the course of the past four months would now be showing clear profit to the tune of £249. Or 130 per cent, if you prefer.

 



As blind systems go, that's pretty impressive and it just so happens that Derby give us plenty of cause for optimism. The Rams have won five games on the spin coming into this clash - not that you'd know it based on the coverage awarded to the two teams over the past seven days - and it's no coincidence that the tide has turned since Nigel Clough was finally able to field his first-choice back four from Boxing Day onwards.

We made that point when backing Derby for their trip to Hull on January 2 and they did us proud with victory at an identical price that day, so we shouldn't hesitate in snapping up the 4/1 available with Victor Chandler here. In truth, we've probably wasted 400 words trying to sell this bet because seven would have sufficed: Derby are above Burnley in the table.

Put simply, the price is an over-reaction to the fact that Burnley's win over Middlesbrough was the most talked-about result in the Championship last weekend and there's no more foundation to it than that.

Recommended bet:

1pt Derby to beat Burnley at 4/1 (Victor Chandler)

For more betting news and views, please visit Bestofthebets.com. You can also follow Mike Holden on Twitter: @Miguel_BOTB

Voices
The Sumatran tiger, endemic to the Indonesian island of Sumatra, is an endangered species
voicesJonathon Porritt: The wild tiger population is thought to have dropped by 97 per cent since 1900
News
news
Arts and Entertainment
Story line: Susanoo slays the Yamata no Orochi serpent in the Japanese version of a myth dating back 40,000 years
arts + entsApplying the theory of evolution to the world's many mythologies
Life and Style
Popular plonk: Lambrusco is selling strong
Food + drinkNaff Seventies corner-shop staple is this year's Aperol Spritz
PROMOTED VIDEO
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
News
Gardai wait for the naked man, who had gone for a skinny dip in Belfast Lough
newsTwo skinny dippers threatened with inclusion on sex offenders’ register as naturists criminalised
News
Shake down: Michelle and Barack Obama bump knuckles before an election night rally in Minnesota in 2008, the 'Washington Post' called it 'the fist bump heard round the world'
newsThe pound, a.k.a. the dap, greatly improves hygiene
Arts and Entertainment
La Roux
music
Arts and Entertainment
Graham Fellows as John Shuttleworth
comedySean O'Grady joins Graham Fellows down his local Spar
News
people
News
Ross Burden pictured in 2002
people
News
Elisabeth Murdoch: The 44-year-old said she felt a responsibility to 'stand up and be counted’'
media... says Rupert Murdoch
Arts and Entertainment
tv
Extras
indybest
Caption competition
Caption competition
Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?

Bleacher Report

Daily Quiz
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

Career Services

Day In a Page

A new Russian revolution: Cracks start to appear in Putin’s Kremlin power bloc

A new Russian revolution

Cracks start to appear in Putin’s Kremlin power bloc
Eugene de Kock: Apartheid’s sadistic killer that his country cannot forgive

Apartheid’s sadistic killer that his country cannot forgive

The debate rages in South Africa over whether Eugene de Kock should ever be released from jail
Standing my ground: If sitting is bad for your health, what happens when you stay on your feet for a whole month?

Standing my ground

If sitting is bad for your health, what happens when you stay on your feet for a whole month?
Commonwealth Games 2014: Dai Greene prays for chance to rebuild after injury agony

Greene prays for chance to rebuild after injury agony

Welsh hurdler was World, European and Commonwealth champion, but then the injuries crept in
Israel-Gaza conflict: Secret report helps Israelis to hide facts

Patrick Cockburn: Secret report helps Israel to hide facts

The slickness of Israel's spokesmen is rooted in directions set down by pollster Frank Luntz
The man who dared to go on holiday

The man who dared to go on holiday

New York's mayor has taken a vacation - in a nation that has still to enforce paid leave, it caused quite a stir, reports Rupert Cornwell
Best comedians: How the professionals go about their funny business, from Sarah Millican to Marcus Brigstocke

Best comedians: How the professionals go about their funny business

For all those wanting to know how stand-ups keep standing, here are some of the best moments
The Guest List 2014: Forget the Man Booker longlist, Literary Editor Katy Guest offers her alternative picks

The Guest List 2014

Forget the Man Booker longlist, Literary Editor Katy Guest offers her alternative picks
Jokes on Hollywood: 'With comedy film audiences shrinking, it’s time to move on'

Jokes on Hollywood

With comedy film audiences shrinking, it’s time to move on
It's the best of British art... but not all is on display

It's the best of British art... but not all is on display

Voted for by the British public, the artworks on Art Everywhere posters may be the only place where they can be seen
Critic claims 'I was the inspiration for Blanche DuBois'

Critic claims 'I was the inspiration for Blanche DuBois'

Blanche Marvin reveals how Tennessee Williams used her name and an off-the-cuff remark to create an iconic character
Sometimes it's hard to be a literary novelist

Sometimes it's hard to be a literary novelist

Websites offering your ebooks for nothing is only the latest disrespect the modern writer is subjected to, says DJ Taylor
Edinburgh Fringe 2014: The comedy highlights, from Bridget Christie to Jack Dee

Edinburgh Fringe 2014

The comedy highlights, from Bridget Christie to Jack Dee
Dame Jenny Abramsky: 'We have to rethink. If not, museums and parks will close'

Dame Jenny Abramsky: 'We have to rethink. If not, museums and parks will close'

The woman stepping down as chair of the Heritage Lottery Fund is worried