Southampton have overcome their wobble in the Championship and seem to be back on course for automatic promotion but we fancy Watford to upset their momentum by tripping them up at Vicarage Road on Saturday.
Nigel Adkins' men head to Hertfordshire unbeaten in five - including draws in their last two away games at Birmingham and West Ham - but this isn't a case of us questioning their character, this is purely based on the respective home and away records of the two sides over the the course of several months.
When you consider that Saints have only won two of their last 13 away games - both of which came against teams in the bottom four - while the Hornets have tasted defeat just once in ten matches at home, then it's easy to appreciate the value in backing Watford (draw no bet) at 2/1.
The disparity in the prices owes much to the fact that the two sides were on the opposite ends of 4-0 scorelines last weekend and while we don't dispute that Southampton's hammering of Derby can only serve them well from a psychological perspective, Watford's heavy defeat against Crystal Palace might also prove to be a positive.
Indeed, Sean Dyche was quick to use the margin at Selhurst Park as an illustration to his players of what can happen when their performance levels drop by the smallest of increments, so we can expect the Hornets to be on their game this weekend and produce something like the performance that downed a tidy Leicester side 3-2 the Tuesday before last.
That was the latest of six victories in the ten-match sample outlined above, which stretches back to October, and when you also recall the problems that Watford posed Tottenham in the FA Cup a month ago, we shouldn't doubt their ability to impose themselves on one of the strongest sides at this level.
2pts Watford to beat Southampton (draw no bet) at 2/1 (Skybet)