Going up and coming down

Given Stoke City's last exposure to the top flight, when they were relegated with 17 points, a record low for a 42-match season, it might be imagined there is trepidation as well as anticipation in the Potteries. A point at home tomorrow, against relegation-haunted Leicester City, will return City to the elite and a possible repeat of the ignominy suffered in 1984-85, and by Derby County this season. There are, though, 60 million reasons why promotion is to be desired.

That is the estimated sterling value of going up. Merely being in next season's Premier League is worth £30m in television and prize money, and, estimate the Sports Business Group at Deloitte, a further £5m in gate money, merchandising and sponsorship. Hang around and the riches multiply, but even instant relegation would bring in two years of parachute payments totalling £24m.

Should they go up Stoke will need to spend a sizable proportion of that windfall on strengthening the squad if they are not to "do a Derby". The limited resources Tony Pulis has been operating with were underlined yesterday when he had to re-jig his plans after Middlesbrough recalled Chris Riggott. The defender, who would have played right-back tomorrow, is one of seven loan players currently at the Britannia Stadium.

In the circumstances those critics of Stoke's antediluvian football are not taking full account of Pulis' constraints. Nor are they recognising a recent softening of their style with Stephen Pearson and Glenn Whelan brought in to vary the play. Nevertheless, the contrast with West Bromwich Albion, who have already claimed the other automatic promotion place, is stark.

The point was made in a recent Albion programme. An anonymous contribution read: "Stoke train with cannons, rescued from local medieval ruins. Footballs are loaded into them and fired into the distance for [Mamady] Sidibe to head and [Ricardo] Fuller to run after. It's a game plan that squeezes the life out of what used to be known as football."

Pulis is unmoved. "I don't think we win ugly," he said. "You ask our supporters. They'll tell you we win beautifully." Pulis, whose re-appointment in 2006 was initially met with hostility, will tomorrow be acclaimed by a 28,000 full house. They will even include two fans, Jim Herbert and Steve Burgess, who emigrated to Australia 18 months ago and have returned for the game. Pulis, in his second spell at the club, said of tomorrow: "I was at this club when we had to beat Reading to stay up. That was real pressure. This is good pressure."

His counterpart today will understand. Ian Holloway is godfather to Tony's son, Anthony, having known Tony since they played together for Bristol Rovers in 1981. Such a friendship might make Stoke's promotion rivals wary, were it not for the fact Leicester may need to win themselves to avoid relegation.

Should Leicester deny Pulis, Hull City will hope to take advantage. The city of Kingston-upon-Hull has two distinctions: cream telephone kiosks and being the largest city in Europe never to host a top-flight football club. With the rise of the mobile phone the kiosks are disappearing with only 300 left from a peak of 480. Now the city's other claim to uniqueness is also in jeopardy.

Even if Stoke lose, Hull need to win at Portman Road where Ipswich, who harbour promotion hopes themselves, boast the best home record in the division. Manager Phil Brown hopes to include 39-year-old Dean Windass despite his having 20 stitches in his shin last week after a challenge from Crystal Palace's Shaun Derry.

Hull were in the fourth tier of the league system as recently as 2004. Such has been the speed of their progress four players – captain Ian Ashbee, goalkeeper Boaz Myhill, defender Andy Dawson and midfielder Ryan France – are in line to achieve the rare distinction of playing in all four divisions for the same team. It is thought only two players have previously done so, David Wetherall and Sean Davis, at Bradford City and Fulham respectively. This, of course, assumes the quartet get the chance to play in the Premier League if Hull go up.

Behind Stoke and Hull lie Bristol City who are guaranteed a play-off place but could do with beating Preston today if only to regain some momentum after managing one win in 10 games.

That victory kept Sheffield United in contention for a play-off place, one of five teams chasing the final two play-off spots. Watford and Crystal Palace control their own destiny but Watford have managed just one win in 13, so can hardly be certain of winning at Blackpool – who themselves need a point to ensure they will stay up.

Palace, who expect a near-capacity 25,000-plus crowd for the visit of Burnley, do have momentum, despite losing at Hull last week. So do Sheffield United but they need to win at Southampton, which would condemn the Saints to relegation, while hoping three of Wolves (home to Plymouth), Ipswich, Watford and Palace fail to win.

The only certainty is a tense afternoon for everyone involved. Look closely tomorrow evening and you may even find a new furrow on the brow of Sir Stanley Matthews' statue outside the Britannia.

Key Player Ricardo Fuller (Stoke City v Leicester City, tomorrow 2pm)

Despite recent adjustments Stoke's formula remains relatively basic. There is a reliance on set-pieces, notably Rory Delap's long throws and Liam Lawrence's set-plays, and aerial power – most of the team are six-foot plus. The key player is Ricardo Fuller who combines quick feet and an eye for goal with the muscle of his team-mates. Craig Brown, who brought him from Jamaica to Preston, regards him as the best in the Championship, when fit

...while today is the vital one in the Premier League's drop zone because, with just two games left, six clubs are still in danger of being relegated

By Mike Rowbottom

The Premier League table says that there are still six teams in with a chance of joining Derby County in the Championship next season. Fulham, Birmingham City, Reading and Bolton Wanderers appear the most likely candidates to fill the two places above Paul Jewell's doomed men, but both Middlesbrough and Wigan Athletic go into today's programme needing something tangible to assure themselves of safety.

A week tomorrow, when the final round of Premier League matches is played, all doubts will be confirmed or assuaged. But before Slippery Sunday comes Jittery Saturday – and at least one side could effectively join Derby today.

Should Fulham lose at home to the team one place above them in the relegation zone, Birmingham, then the chances of Roy Hodgson's side dodging the drop would be negligible, for all their extraordinary achievement in winning 3-2 at Manchester City last week after being 2-0 down.

Even a point would leave the Cottagers, whose last game is Portsmouth away, looking like favourites to be the second team to embrace relegation. Birmingham, who let a 2-0 lead slip to 2-2 in the last half-hour against Liverpool last Saturday, also need to earn at least a point to keep themselves in with a chance, given that their last match is a tricky home fixture against Blackburn.

Of the two teams currently keeping themselves out of the relegation area by virtue of a single point, Reading and Bolton, the former have the more difficult task today as they host Spurs. But while Bolton's home game against Sunderland, newly safe from the drop themselves, looks capable of yielding them three points, the following fixture – away to a Chelsea side who may still be going hell-for-leather to take the title – means that a win is not optional.

Reading, whose final match is away to Derby, appear to have a more healthy chance of survival. But the news from the Madejski Stadium this week – where Emerse Fae, Reading's £2.5m signing from Nantes, and Ibrahima Sonko have been suspended by the club for the rest of the season for refusing to play in the reserves on Monday – gives an indication of the seismic pressures coming to bear upon those unfortunates on the brink of leaving the Premier League club.

The normal sangfroid of Reading's manager, Steve Coppell, gave way to something more vulnerable in the wake of his side's recent defeat at Arsenal, when he admitted that he had questioned his policy this season of maintaining his reliance on the players who had managed record-breaking promotion and an eighth-place Premier League finish in successive years. "Maybe I could have done more in the January transfer window," Coppell mused.

This is the time of year when all doubts and insecurities come crowding in upon players and managers alike from sides facing the hugely costly drop from top-drawer status.

Birmingham's manager, Alex McLeish, who has struggled to lift his side after taking over from the current Wigan manager Steve Bruce in November, offered a revealing view of the mental turmoil visiting St Andrew's as the Fulham game looms.

First, he gave a little sample of mind-gaming aimed at his managerial counterpart. "Fulham are now in a situation where they must win the game. In the past few weeks I am sure Roy has said to them, 'We have nothing to lose, just go for it. If we lose it, then lose it going forward and don't worry about leaving ourselves open'."

But while McLeish hopes his opponents feel the strain today, he is clearly dealing with his own pressing issues. "History is history, but this is the most important game I have faced," said the man who has guided Rangers to the Scottish title and took Scotland to the very brink of the European Championship finals last year.

"You never know what is going on in inside an individual's body or how nervous they feel. I can give them all the help and direction they need, but they've got to take it out on to the pitch. All the shouting and encouraging that goes on in the dressing room before the game, they've got to put that into practice when they take to the field at Craven Cottage."

Birmingham's Tunisian centre-back Radhi Jaidi has provided his own insight into the mental approach he will adopt today, talking in martial terms as he looked ahead to earning a result which might have the spin-off of relegating his former team, Bolton.

"You have to fight for yourself," Jaidi said. "I will be disappointed, of course, if Bolton go down, but it's life. We don't have a choice on Saturday. We have go to a war and to protect our country. I think the game will be more in the brain than in the feet.

"I don't mean war in going and kicking someone, or fighting someone. But when you think of the soldier going to war, he is going to protect his country, maybe to save his life, to see family and country happy. That's what I want to explain.

"To go into the next game and give our best. When I hear the final whistle, if I feel as if I've died, as if I can't do more than that, that's what I want to feel after the game. Then, we can see the result."

Key Player James McFadden (Fulham v Birmingham City, today, 3pm)

Birmingham need points to survive, which means they need goals. Alex McLeish paid Everton £5m for James McFadden in January in the hope that the player who scored three times in five Scotland internationals under him would lift City's fortunes. Despite undergoing a knee operation McFadden has rewarded him with four goals in nine starts, and plenty of much needed creative input