It's one of the quirks of being a punter that satisfaction can sometimes be found in being wrong and so it was that we felt a rush of vindication last weekend when MK Dons conceded an injury-time equaliser against ten-man QPR in the FA Cup.
In our preview of the third round action, we had tipped the Dons to win by two clear goals at 9/2 by virtue of how infrequently they triumph in the realm of close-run things. Either the Dons win well, or they don't win at all.
And so it proved against the R's. Karl Robinson's men had claimed a well-deserved lead midway through the second half and were bang on course for the victory when the visitors were reduced to ten men late on, suggesting that we might live to regret our decision to overlook them at 7/4 in the standard 90-minute market.
Rangers had rarely threatened after falling behind, the Dons had done what they needed to do, but it still came as no great shock when time stood still on Soccer Saturday as the report of another goal came through. Push had come to shove, the Premier League side had thrown the dice one final time and MK crumbled.
So we're not likely to abandon this chain of thought and we see value in backing the draw when Carlisle visit stadium:mk in League One on Saturday.
As illustrated above, we've now reduced this to a simple system of putting all MK Dons matches in one of two boxes marked 'win well' or 'not at all' and this is one that should fall into the latter category.
The Cumbrians are one place behind their hosts in the table following a sequence of just two defeats in 16 league outings, both of which occurred on the road against the top two, although they did hold Huddersfield at the Galpharm in their last away game.
However, in spite of their impressive consistency, Greg Abbott's men haven't really offered too much to suggest they can triumph a fixture of this magnitude, so the stalemate does feel like a happy medium and odds of 14/5 with Victor Chandler are big enough to warrant investment.
It's a match we expect the Dons to dominate in territorial terms but the opposition are clever enough to stay within in touching distance and profit from that inability to close games out.
1pt MK Dons v Carlisle draw at 14/5 (Victor Chandler)