League One weekend betting preview: All Rhodes point to profit
Michael Holden is one of the UK's leading football betting tipsters. A former casino croupier with a deep-rooted curiosity in statistics and probabilities, his passion for betting on the beautiful game stretches back more than two decades. Since graduating as a journalist from the University of Central Lancashire in 2005, he has delivered consistent profits for his legion of followers on Sportinglife.com and produced many groundbreaking feature articles on the application of social science in a football betting context. He is now the editor of Bestofthebets.com having orchestrated the design, build and launch of the new sports betting website for Gaming Media Group during the summer of 2011.
Friday 24 February 2012
We've offered no shortage of insight into the recent managerial comings and goings at Huddersfield this past couple of weeks and now it's time to back it all up by getting in early on the new trends we see unfolding at the Galpharm in the weeks and months to come.
On top of all the talk about points gained and first goal percentages to support the case for the Terriers replacing Lee Clark with Simon Grayson, we now wish to throw one further statistic your way to support placing a bet on Huddersfield (-1) on the handicap against Exeter on Saturday.
In the last 17 matches, only once have Town triumphed by two clear goals. It's not a shocking statistic by any means but it does illustrate how laborious their promotion bid was becoming that so seldom have they killed games off, allowing themselves the luxury of a breeze through to the final whistle.
During the same four-month timeframe, Sheffield United have won by two clear goals on eight occasions, Charlton have done it six times and Sheffield Wednesday three times. Those numbers give you a pretty fair indication of how those three clubs are finding the going right now.
And yet the Terriers certainly possess the firepower to give themselves a much easier ride when they get their noses in front. The one exception in that sample was a 6-0 win at Wycombe in front of the Sky cameras, while they've also won by three clear goals in four other matches.
Had they pushed for that breathing space more often, who knows what complexion of the League One promotion shake-up would be right now. But that brings us back to the light at the end of the tunnel being provided by Grayson. Six of Leeds' 14 victories this season have been acheived by two clear goals, in their League One promotion campaign two years ago, they did it 15 times.
All of which is good news for Jordan Rhodes. In spite of how frequently Huddersfield played with the handbrake on in the last few months of the Clark era, he has found the net 25 times in 20 matches since October, so the 20/1 about Jordan Rhodes to score a hat-trick might be worth a nibble if expression and enjoyment become the buzzwords for Grayson.
A closer look at Rhodes' personal scoring record is quite revealing insomuch that 15 of those goals have arrived in four separate matches. Clearly, when games open up and Huddersfield lose their inhibitions, he's liable to have a field day.
Exeter are worthy of respect, primarily because their manager Paul Tisdale is capable of making the most of any little edge. If there's something in a game for the Grecians, their limited side will usually snap up what's on offer with both hands.
However, 11 of their 15 defeats have been by two clear goals, which is indicative of their willingness to chase games when they fall behind and that should play into our hands for the sake of our main bet.
2pts Huddersfield (-1) to beat Exeter on the handicap at 6/4 (Stan James)
0.5pt Jordan Rhodes to score a hat-trick at 20/1 (Skybet)
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