League Two betting preview: Hit the jackpot with Accrington
Michael Holden is one of the UK's leading football betting tipsters. A former casino croupier with a deep-rooted curiosity in statistics and probabilities, his passion for betting on the beautiful game stretches back more than two decades. Since graduating as a journalist from the University of Central Lancashire in 2005, he has delivered consistent profits for his legion of followers on Sportinglife.com and produced many groundbreaking feature articles on the application of social science in a football betting context. He is now the editor of Bestofthebets.com having orchestrated the design, build and launch of the new sports betting website for Gaming Media Group during the summer of 2011.
Friday 13 January 2012
There's something very familiar about what's happening at Accrington Stanley right now it could pay handsomely to side with a few variations along the theme about them handing out a hiding to lowly Barnet at the Crown Ground on Saturday.
The Reds were languishing back in 20th place at the end of October but now the promotion bid is in full swing with the Reds having won seven of the last nine to propel themselves up to 9th, just two points off the play-off places.
It's a sequence that includes four straight wins on home soil and experience tells us that John Coleman's men might well remain a formidable force on their own patch for the remainder of the campaign.
Last season, they picked up ten wins and a draw from their last 11 home matches in a blistering finish to the campaign that ultimately carried them up to fifth position from a low of 19th last January.
And looking back on that sequence, we already see striking similarites with the current one, so let's allow history to be our guide in respect of how they might go about their business against the Bees.
In that sample of 11 home matches, the Lancashire minnows copped the Accrington/Accrington double result seven of the final nine and landed Accrington (-1) on the handicap in eight of the last nine. Both of those outcomes are available at 2/1 and it's worth investing a point on each.
Of course, there are two sides to any bet but we see enough in Barnet's away record - the worst in the division - to arouse the suspicion that we might be on to something. The Londoners have lost eight of the last ten on the road, five of them by the interval while failing to score in five of the last eight.
And from a circumstantial perspective, the Johnstone's Paint Trophy sourthern area final against Swindon also counts against them. The Bees are one step away from Wembley and played the first leg at Underhill in midweek, fighting their way back from a goal down against Paolo Di Canio's men to salvage a draw and keep the tie alive for the return leg at the County Ground next month.
Given that we hold a high opinion of the Robins and the standards they have been setting of late, we can only assume that Lawrie Sanchez and his players raised their game signifcantly for that match and now the sense of anti-climax could be acute for one of the least glamourous fixtures on the League Two calendar.
If that proves to be the case, then a harrowing afternoon awaits. Referring back to that 11 match sample between February and May last year, there's grounds for backing Accrington to be 3-0 ahead at half-time (which occurred four times) with either SkyBet or Stan James and Accrington to win 4-0 over 90 minutes with 188Bet.
We could suggest a handful of correct scores or half-time scores along similar lines but, without wishing to go overboard, those two at 40/1 represent the cream of the value.
1pt Accrington (-1) to beat Barnet at 21/10 (general)
1pt Accrington/ Accrington double result at 9/5 (general)
0.25pt Accrington to be 3-0 up at half-time (SkyBet)
0.25pt Accrington to win 4-0 at 40/1 (188Bet)
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