Euro 2016: The favourites, the new boys, the outsiders – and England

As a large line-up for France takes shape, Glenn Moore examines who will be a threat and who will make up the numbers

Wales players celebrate a rare qualification for a major tournament - but how far can they go? (Getty)

Usual suspects

France, Germany, Italy, Spain

The Oranje, with their effervescent fans, skilful, argumentive footballers and egotistical coaches, will be missed next summer after Robben, Van Persie, Sneijder et al inexplicably failed to qualify for the largest European Championship to date, but there will be no shortage of stardust in France. The strongest host nation since 2000 and the finalists of the last two tournaments head an intriguing cast that is still not complete.

World champions Germany, seeking a fourth title but the first since Euro ’96, are the bookies’ favourites. In qualifying they lost to Poland, dropped four points to the Republic of Ireland and were given a scare by Georgia, but they have pedigree, quality and experience. Under current coach Joachim Löw they were runners-up in 2008 and semi-finalists in 2012.


 Anthony Martial and France are expected to be a formidable force on home soil 
 (EPA)

Seeking an unprecedented third successive win are Spain. After an early stumble against Slovakia, they quickly got over their World Cup nightmare to cruise into the Euro finals with coach Vicente del Bosque overseeing a gradual changing of the guard in a team no longer as dependent on the Barcelona core.

Italy, finalists in 2012, will not be in the first tier of seeds after a poor World Cup and an unconvincing, if unbeaten, qualifying campaign. They do, though, have a habit of coming good when it matters.

France have the problem of all host nations, a lack of competitive matches, but it could be argued their programme of friendly opponents has been more demanding than most qualifying groups. Franck Ribéry has retired from international football but in Paul Pogba they have Europe’s most in-demand player, and in Anthony Martial its fastest-rising star.

Dark horses

Belgium, Czech Republic, England, Poland, Portugal

While Germany, Spain, France, Italy and the Netherlands have won 10 of the 14 tournaments, outsiders have had more success at the European Championship than at the World Cup. Greece (2004) and Denmark (1992) were shock winners, while Portugal and the Czech Republic have made finals in the last 20 years. Both are present again, the Czechs after a fine qualifying campaign led by veterans Tomas Rosicky and Petr Cech, Portugal trusting in the brilliance of Cristiano Ronaldo, backed by Joao Moutinho. Poland are equally dependent on Robert Lewandowski, though they also have a sprinkling of decent players in support.


 Sharpshooter Robert Lewandowski will be among the favourites to win the Golden Boot 
 (EPA)

Belgium were dark horses at the World Cup but did not quite live up to that reputation. Their difficulties with Wales in qualification further highlight a lack of collective experience under pressure but man-for-man they have one of the tournament’s best squads and will be a threat.

Which leaves England. A perfect qualifying campaign, despite a potentially crippling injury list, suggests they should do much better than in Brazil. Success for England, who will be backed by huge support, would be a first European semi-final on away soil since 1968. Given luck with injuries and the draw it is possible, if not probable.

Debutants

Albania, Iceland, Northern Ireland, Slovakia, Wales

The expansion of the finals, pushed through by suspended Uefa president Michel Platini in one of his better acts, has enabled several nations previously excluded from the party to join the jamboree. The excitement over Wales’ qualification, while understandable, may grate with those players who reached the quarter-finals in 1976. Then the final tournament comprised only four teams, now it is 24, but it is not unreasonable for Wales to dream of matching Mike Smith’s team and make the last eight. Gareth Bale is the star, but Wales are not a one-man team. The likes of Aaron Ramsey, Ashley Williams, Joe Allen and Neil Taylor are established Premier League players, but Chris Coleman will need them, and especially Bale and goalkeeper Wayne Hennessey, to stay fit.


 Plenty of Albanian fans are expected to travel for their nation's first appearance at a major tournament finals (Getty)
 (Getty Images)

Northern Ireland have a tremendous esprit de corps and are well organised but possess few elite players. This will make it harder for them than Wales to overcome the likely handicap of being pot-four seeds.

Slovakia not only have World Cup experience, doing well in 2010, but provided the majority of the players when Czechoslovakia won the European title in 1976.

For Albania and Iceland qualification is a landmark event as, unlike the other debutants, they have not previously been to a World Cup. Iceland, with a young side built around Swansea’s Gylfi Sigurdsson and expertly managed by Swedish veteran Lars Lagerbäck, are likely to be more dangerous than an Albanian side that do not concede, or score, many goals.

Makeweights

Austria, Croatia, Romania, Russia, Switzerland, Turkey

The side-effect of expansion is the qualification of several middle-ranking nations who are unlikely to offer either romance or be credible contenders. The exception could be free-scoring Austria celebrating their first qualification, having been given a place as co-hosts in 2008. Their team, based on Bundesliga players with a smattering from the Premier League, including Stoke’s mercurial Marko Arnautovic, enjoyed a convincing qualifying campaign. They took Group G ahead of a Russian team that looked on the way out until Fabio Capello was sacked. Leonid Slutsky so transformed the form of the 2018 World Cup hosts they could be regarded as dark horses were it not for the fact Russian teams historically travel poorly, and this squad, almost all based in the domestic game, is unlikely to be an exception.


 Austria's Marko Arnautovic soaks head coach Marcel Koller with some locally brewed lager (Getty)
 (Getty Images)

Croatia will hope to revive the spirit of France 1998, when they reached the semi-finals, but this team lacks that generation’s talent and post-independence drive. Romania were unbeaten but uninspiring in qualifying. Switzerland have some capable players, yet England exposed their inadequacies in home and away victories. Turkey sneaked in as the best third-placed team and will need all Fatih Terim’s coaching experience.

Still hoping

Seeds Bosnia & H’govina, Denmark, Sweden, Ukraine

Non-seeds Hungary, Norway, Rep of Ireland, Slovenia

In previous years England, Spain, the Netherlands and Portugal have all featured in qualifying play-offs but with the Dutch having performed so miserably that they could not finish even third in their group, there are no big countries in the play-offs this time. There is, though, a big name, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who will hope Sweden succeed where they failed in the 2014 World Cup play-offs.


 Will another major tournament be deprived of Zlatan? (Getty)
 (Getty Images)

Sweden will be the team to fear when the draw is made on Sunday. The other seeds are not obviously better than the unseeded teams and do not have an Ibrahimovic either.

The romantics will hope Hungary, whose 1950s team was arguably the greatest side not to win the World Cup, make it. The once-magical Magyars have not reached a major tournament since the 1986 World Cup. While Denmark are former winners, neither Hungary nor Bosnia & Herzegovina have previously reached the finals.

The route to France 2016: What happens now?

Play-off draw 10.20am, Sunday, Nyon, Switzerland.

First legs 12-14 November

Second legs 15-17 November

Seeds Bosnia, Sweden, Denmark, Ukraine.

Unseeded Hungary, Norway, Republic of Ireland, Slovenia

Republic of Ireland internationals John O’Shea and Jonathan Walters will be suspended for the first leg of the play-offs.

The draw for the finals is in Paris on 12 December. Teams will be seeded into four pots as determined by the Uefa national team co-efficient. England will be in the first pot of seeds, Wales and Northern Ireland in the fourth.If they qualify Republic of Ireland will be in the third or fourth pot.

Group of death (England) Italy, Poland, Wales

Group of hope (England) Switzerland, Hungary, Slovenia

Group of death (Wales/Northern Ireland) France, Italy, Poland.

Group of hope (Wales/Northern Ireland) Portugal, Austria, Hungary.

Glenn Moore